Ruling out any electoral cooperation with the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), he has courted the Democratic Party for the People — with which it shares a history in the DPJ — and Nippon Ishin no Kai to join forces in several single-seat districts. In the last few weeks before official campaigning kicks off on Oct. 15, the party has been accelerating negotiations with other parties to agree on joint candidates in those districts to form a united front against the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition and avoid splitting the opposition vote. However, two weeks ahead of the election, last-minute adjustments could hardly stir the waters in a way that favors the CDP. Noda has inherited a political landscape in which each party has maximized its own interests for years, opting for cooperation only under limited circumstances.
In the Oct. 27 House of Representatives election, three women are running in Shimane Prefecture's No. 1 district including an LDP candidate, while two women are running for opposition parties against one male LDP candidate in the prefecture's No. 2 constituency. After commenting on the abundance of female candidates in the prefecture, Shigeru Sonoyama, the LDP prefectural chapter secretary-general and prefectural assembly member, stated, "I believe that this is a sign that women have been sought, not only by my family, but by society as a whole."
Looking like a hung parliament!
At this point, there are four possible outcomes of post-election negotiations.
- LDP-Kōmeitō minority government, with limited external cooperation with the DPFP and Ishin: probably the most likely outcome, but not a particularly stable outcome, with the government that emerges fragile, vulnerable to a no-confidence motion if it does not satisfy opposition demands on political reform but also vulnerable to intra-LDP conflict.
- LDP-Kōmeitō-Ishin and DPFP coalition government: either Ishin or the DPFP may shift its thinking on a coalition, depending on what policy promises or positions the LDP and Kōmeitō offer (or even the premiership for Tamaki, as mentioned yesterday), but neither party seems inclined to help the LDP at this point. Any talks between these parties in the coming days bear scrutiny, as either would have enough seats to secure a majority.
- LDP-Kōmeitō-CDP grand coalition: CDP leader Noda Yoshihiko ruled this out before the general election, and there is little reason to think that, having just scored major gains at the LDP's expense by campaigning against the LDP's corrupt practices. The party will likely keep the pressure on the LDP heading into upper house elections next year and look for an opportunity to deploy a no-confidence motion at a moment of maximum strategic advantage.
- CDP-Ishin-DPFP coalition: Depending on where the parties wind up, this option may not be realistic anyway, at least not without Kōmeitō or some LDP breakaway group joining with them. But even if somehow the three parties could reach a majority, the negotiations might be even more difficult than LDP-Kōmeitō negotiations with these parties. It may be difficult for these parties to agree on anything other than specific political reforms, to say nothing of the distribution of posts.
The lawyers filed the lawsuits with 14 high courts and their branches on Monday, challenging all of the 289 single-seat electoral district results. The country has taken steps to rectify the situation since the Supreme Court ruled the vote weight disparities of over 2.0-fold seen in the 2009, 2012 and 2014 lower houses elections were in a "state of unconstitutionality." It has never nullified election results. The top court said the maximum disparity of 2.08-fold in the 2021 lower house election was constitutional as parliament had made efforts to redress differences in the weight of votes. According to government data, Hokkaido's No. 3 district had the highest number of eligible voters at 461,457 and Tottori Prefecture's No. 1 district the lowest with 224,060 voters as of Oct. 14.
On Monday, Ishiba held talks before convening the Diet session with Noda and DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki. Noda asked for a transparent policy decision-making process, especially on political reforms, Ishiba told reporters. "What is important is ensuring the country is at peace and improving people's lives," he said. "I think I was able to share that belief with members of the DPFP and the CDP," Tamaki told reporters on Friday that he would not release his party members to vote for anyone but himself in the second round of the parliamentary vote. But on Monday, the married politician held a news conference, acknowledged having had an affair with a woman as reported by a Japanese weekly magazine and apologized for his conduct.