Japan is entering into Utopia?, but UK is entering into hell????
Balance of Payments- 2007 Q3: UK deficit widens
As far as I know, UK has long enjoyed property price hikes. So theoretically British assets increased very much. British Stg Pound was one of the strongest currency among the world. When I visisted London, I was very surprised to see all was very expensive.
So all is fine in UK??? No, The reality does not look like.
1. UK is suffering from chronicle deficit of current account.
There was a current account deficit of £20.0 billion in the third quarter, equivalent to -5.7 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared with £13.7 billion, equivalent to -4.0 per cent of GDP, in the previous quarter. The higher deficit was due to an increase in the deficits on trade in goods and on investment income.
Home - Office for National Statistics
2. In order to keep balance of money flow, UK needs to keep higher base rate.
Today UK base rate - 5.25%, vs Japan (0.5%). Higher base rate helps UK Stg Pound stronger, and thus Foreign investors buy UK bonds and property. Usually higher base rate hinders property price increase. Thus UK needs to create bubble economy - let people borrow more money and invest property by extending more credit to the people who are not worth to provide.
After US subprime crisis of last year, this magic is unlikely to work out anymore.
3. When economy gets slower, most of countries including USA usually decrease base rate to stimulate domestic economy and lower exchange rate to boost export. But in the case of UK,
nothing to export.....
but living on financial business principally. So UK central bank will keep their base rate as high as possible in order to attract foreign investors. Otherwise, UK will face economic crisis.
4. Financial business sounds nice because of its higher profitability as far as bubble economy continues. But in other words, financial business is equivalent of gamble.
I think "London" financial center looks like Las Vegas. Gambling on financial business is likely to end as credit crunch prevails worldwide....now.
I am not economist, but the above senario of mine is quite resonable.....
People in UK will continue to live in higher interest rate, while economy becomes slow and property price decrease.
I think such situation will be Hell. Am I wrong?