Is the reform of Japan Post positive?

As we all know, the Upper House of the Diet has rejected Koizumis' plans for the privatization of Japan Post. :mail:

In the main financial newspapers, this is being called "a blow to the economy", and a victory of communitarian conservativism over anti-bureocratic, privatizing radicalism.

Now, I wonder if privatizing everything *is* the proper way to go... I mean, while State collectivism is one thing, the idea that everything should be in private hands isn't very appealing to me, either.

Can it truly be a better solution to give the 350trln yen of Japan Posts' assets to the international finance, or should they remain in the States' hands?

And what of the employees of Japan Post (nearly a third of the civil servants)? How many would face unemployment if Koizumis' plans went ahead? :?

Regards,
Keoland

Keoland said:

Can it truly be a better solution to give the 350trln yen of Japan Posts' assets to the international finance, or should they remain in the States' hands?

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Why should they? State corporations usually waste huge amounts of money. The question is how much does the Japanese state lose every year due to systemic wastefulness compared to the "lost" assets. & would those assets be truly lost?

And what of the employees of Japan Post (nearly a third of the civil servants)? How many would face unemployment if Koizumis' plans went ahead?

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Good question. But would it be better to keep people employed when their work isn't needed? Then you could just as well say, people in Europe should take the former socialist East as an example & (re-)establish government-controlled industries.

bossel said:

Why should they? State corporations usually waste huge amounts of money. The question is how much does the Japanese state lose every year due to systemic wastefulness compared to the "lost" assets. & would those assets be truly lost?

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An excellent question, and one that - I fear - we will not have an answer for in the next decades. It is a fact that local (and even government) politicians have been using that money to finance projects that help their re-election (like the "Roads to Nowhere"), and that, in private hands, the money can be put to better use.

However, it is also true that those construction companies do employ an awful lot of people and some are even the economic core of some of the inner regions... the removal of these projects can make many of them collapse, creating a lot of unemployment in many smaller prefectures.

bossel said:

Good question. But would it be better to keep people employed when their work isn't needed? Then you could just as well say, people in Europe should take the former socialist East as an example & (re-)establish government-controlled industries.

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The basic reasoning (do not keep people where they are not needed) is sound indeed, but there is a catch to it: in order to foster stability, the Jiyuminshuto has created a large mass of civil servants that truly owe their jobs and their existance to the State. Like that, they are assured of their support and these workers are, indeed, one of the main reasons why the party is always reelected. If they become alienated, the whole political stability of the country is put at risk.

(this, of course, raises the issue on how will the Jiyuminshuto deal with their insider 'rebels', which is also why the possibility of a split in the party has been raised by some).

On more financial reasons, which companies could buy Japan Posts' assets? The banks theoretically have the money, but they are stretched to the limit, and surely they would need the States' aid to do it... either that, or let foreign companies buy them, something that does not seem to be politically acceptable.

Regards,
Keoland

Its another high leveled strategy of axis of International Hedge funds(heard and read many stories about that US government and other G8 nations demanded it for a long time to Japan),
If Privitization would be accepted (many offices which do not make profits would be closed,the service range would become smaller in nation wide not to mention it will cause many more people to become unemployed etc)

The 350 trillion Yen assets that saved in the postal offices currently would seek for other places to go and probably large portion of them would go to other investment palces such like stock market or private finance goods or derivatives etc etc.(whereas the western hedge fund friendly and related financial companies have dominant competitiveness in the world-look at Korean stock market and banking sector after Asian financial crisis )

Considering that this 350 trillion Yen's of assets so far supported purchasing of Japanese governmental bonds stably and secure the source of fund of public infrastructure construction projects etc,the privitization will accelrate the weak condition of Japanese government's credit rating and governmental services.

The negative system and effects of the Japan post could be fixed without privitization though but there are already too many uneffective and cost wasteful phenomenons happend and they are very tightly connected to the many people's sources of income.(i.e hard to fixed without people's self willing and desire) so what things would be better ?

stupidumboy said:

If Privitization would be accepted (many offices which do not make profits would be closed,the service range would become smaller in nation wide not to mention it will cause many more people to become unemployed etc)

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Which is exactly what has happened in the UK since privatisation of the postal service. I really hope Japan doesn't go down the same track. Britain is a case-study (in numerous areas of business) of how to completely screw up a reliable service by privatising it.

From my limited understanding of the "system" over here, the postal bank would be the worlds largest if it were privatized. That the JDP has used the postal bank as its personal bond floater for decades as it finances its "job programs" and "highway corporation". Yet you only have to drive the roads here to see that construction never ends, yet lanes are not added simply paved and repaved. In my town there has been a road under construction for 2 years. My feeling is that as soon as it is completed, they will start again to tear it up. The result is that 1 of the 4 lanes is always out of use.
The rural postal system is run like medieval europe where the job is passed from father to son. The politicians work the system (as they always do) but since the postal system isn't for profit and the highway corporation is also public there is no check in the system.
As an american I firmly believe in checks and balances. Nepotism is no way to run the nations largest bond issuing institution. The highway corporation needs reform and the politicians need to find a new way to pay for their pet projects.
with an ever shrinking work force, job programs and road projects will have less and less impact as the money will have to be spent on health care instead. Or they can simply borrow the money like GWB and pay the piper later on.

I just heard in Chinese media that an female senior minister in environment seeks to take revenge.