Did the Imperial Japanese Navy waste its potential against North America ?

sabro · 2 Mar 2005

I doubt that either Germany or Japan seriously considered an invasion of the US.

My guess was that Japan (like so many others) underestimated the US resolve to fight an expensive, bloody, and protracted conflict. Pearl Harbor would have eliminated any meaningful US Naval presence in the Pacific for most of 1942, had they hit the aircraft carriers and launched a third wave. I think they were hoping for a settlement which would have let Japan keep the Dutch oil fields, China, and much of the rest of Asia.

One great difference between the Allies and Axis is in cooperation and the sale of technology. When Hitler declared war on the US in 1941, I'm certain that he fully expected Japan to attach the USSR in asia and siphon off troop and supplies. But instead, Japan gave Stalin enough assurances to pull most of his troop from his eastern borders and send them to the Eastern Front, hastening Hitler's defeat.

You can probably blame Hitler's "genius" directly for the German procurement system, for the adoption of expensive and difficult to produce war material, for the lack of a four engine bomber, for the lack of production of several advanced field weapons in favor of expensive medium and heavy tanks and vengence weapons.... the list goes on and on.

Hiroshi66 · 2 Mar 2005

Glad to hear that, guys.

Wow.. so the Germans were more active in espionage than the Japanese were...

Sensuikan San · 2 Mar 2005

An .... Elder (sigh !) replies ....

Yeah ! ..... OK ..... I'm old .... !

...same age as (Sir) Mick Jagger ! (And, I might add ... just as slim .... and I don't work out !)

However ...

Shooter452 said:
I give little creedance to the New York bomber because the Luftwaffe's procurement system was a shambles from 1939 onward. Non-standardization, lack of creative direction from above, the continual production of obsolete models well past their prime, all diffused German aircraft production to the point that they could not continually replace the types that they had in production to keep up with losses let alone produce new and largely untested models under consideration. A working prototype does not a bomber fleet make.

Just to astonish you; thanks to Albert Speer, German Aircraft production actually peaked in September 1944 ! In that month, production rose to an alarming 44,000 aircraft ! Compared to 24,000 in July 1943 (the previous high point).

That having been said, pretty much all your other points are very well made, and well taken. Heavy bomber production (I can hardly think which heavy bombers they had in mind...?) was abysmally low, and the bulk of production(fighters)would probably have been Bf109, FW190 and Me262 variants. We should also consider that slave labour was being employed to a large extent, and that quality of production was, in many cases, execrable. But there was, without doubt, a remarkable resolve ... although, if someone in a black uniform, brandishing a whip were leaning over me ... I'd put in my eight hours, too!

But, yes, the "Amerika-Bomber" program was real! Messerschmitt, Focke-Wulfe and Junkers all submitted potential strategic bombers. As you point out, though, none of them would result in a serious bomber fleet. It was apparent that Hitler and (to a lesser degree) the High Command thought it was a good idea at the time - but whether or not the Luftwaffe really bought it is open to question! (Incidentally, I have a photograph of the Messerschmitt 264 heavy bomber, which I can't upload for copyright reasons - it looks remarkably like a Germanic B-29 !)

Shooter452 said:
If you say that the U-boats were sinking them in 1945, I'll believe you, but the sources that I have say that after 1943, the U-boats were getting slaughtered in such vast numbers that they actually posed little-to-no-threat to the logistical pipeline crossing the Atlantic. That the boats still put to sea with enthusiasm says much for the crews but not for the leadership that allowed them to take technically deficient vessels into a war that was based on cutting edge technology.

Yes, you are absolutely correct in saying that the U-Boats were an endangered species and "on the run" after late 1943. But, they hadn't stopped building boats, the type XXI and XXIII boats were starting to come into service, and the sinkings didn't stop overnight. My own father was a British Merchant Mariner throughout WWII, and I can assure you that, whilst, as you say "they actually posed little-to-no-threat to the logistical pipeline crossing the Atlantic" - to the average 35-year-old chief steward on an allied oil tanker .... they were still of substantial concern!

He wasn't too keen on Kamikaze pilots in the Pacific either, by the way! But they seemed to aim at Naval ships. Which might lead me to my next post ... and an idea ....

Sabro said:
When Hitler declared war on the US in 1941, I'm certain that he fully expected Japan to attach the USSR in Asia and siphon off troop and supplies. But instead, Japan gave Stalin enough assurances to pull most of his troop from his eastern borders and send them to the Eastern Front, hastening Hitler's defeat.

That was perceptive! I must confess - I'd never even thought of that one! Makes you wonder who was fighting who doesn't it!

But, you know, there's more than likely a big grain of truth in it. Certainly, Hitler seemed very pleased about "Pearl" and very keen to engage with the US ... whereas I believe, the rest of "his inner sanctum" were somewhat subdued over the whole affair ( I guess they had more bloody sense .. !)

Best Regards,

ジョン

Hiroshi66 · 2 Mar 2005

You're not a geezer!

Interesting points.

Shooter452 · 5 Mar 2005

Sensuikan San said:
Just to astonish you; thanks to Albert Speer, German Aircraft production actually peaked in September 1944 ! In that month, production rose to an alarming 44,000 aircraft ! Compared to 24,000 in July 1943 (the previous high point).ﾆ淡ﾆ停?｡ﾆ停?彈/QUOTE]
I do not dispute anything from your most cogent post, but, Sensuikan-San, I would like to point out that of the approximately 44,000 aircraft produced by the German aircraft industry, ILM managed to produce 16,000 obsolete and ineffective aircraft models.

Arguably, all of the bomber models were either obsolete (such as the Ju-87 and the He-111) or were ineffective (the Do-17 and the Ju-88, which had no role left in the war except as night fighers, and there were more effective models for that role, such as the He-217 that was not produced in sufficient numbers). The Ju-52 was still being produced in high numbers, and it was the least needed a/c being manufactured in 1944. The Bf-109G--which was produced in large numbers--was an obsolete fighter a/c that was easy meat for Allied fighter jocks when in the hands of the average Luftwaffe driver, and could only be flown safely on the Ost Front--and it was the most produced fighter a/c of that year. The Fw-190A was a good fighter, but only at altitudes below 23,000 ft. With most bomber intercepts taking place at altitudes up to 30,000 ft. it was not the fighter they needed. Only the Fw-190D was up to doing the job that the Germans needed, and it was the least produced fighter a/c of 1944.

So, you see, the number 44,000 was not all that impressive once you consider how diffused a/c production was. Also, 44,000 was not equal to the 56,000 a/c that the Germans had lost in 1943-1944.

By 1944, the Germans had no capacity to launch bomber raids on New York City, whether or not it owned a bomber capable of making the flight. It also did not have enough 87 octane aviation fuel to power all of the a/c it did manufacture.

Udet made a mess of the German a/c industry. After his death, no one stepped up to unravel the chaos he left behind.

Sensuikan San · 6 Mar 2005

Hello Shooter ...

... and you say I'm a researcher ... ! Wow!

I confess to being most impressed! And don't argue with a single point!

All I was trying to say was that, although well on the road to defeat, Germany was, unfortunately, by no means 'dead in the water' and was still able to display some industrial capacity at quite a late stage in the war. The Third Reich was still a substantial nut to crack, and not to be taken too lightly, certainly in the short term. I tend to think of the industrial output of that year as a sort of "Economic Battle of the Bulge", ( ... for the want of better words).

So, you see, the number 44,000 was not all that impressive once you consider how diffused a/c production was. Also, 44,000 was not equal to the 56,000 a/c that the Germans had lost in 1943-1944.

I agree - but, 56,000 were the losses in 1943-1944. However, 44,000 was the production figure for September 1944! One month! (Although - I admit that this was the peak - and a pretty sharp one at that !)

By 1944, the Germans had no capacity to launch bomber raids on New York City, whether or not it owned a bomber capable of making the flight.

I don't think they had to! I don't think they had the intention of launching bombing raids against New York...

..but I do think that, at the back of their minds, they intended to launch ... just one ... !

Fortunately for us all, the German Nuclear Research program appears to have been headed by our old friend and "Bon Vivant", Hermann Goering. Accordingly, it was way behind schedule, hampered by God knows what ( I
believe that booze and lethargy were the main culprits ...), and simply not in the same league as the allied "Manhattan Project". But it did exist! Scary!

Had a "Hiroshima" taken place in Manhattan in 1945 - who knows what results may have come about! Certainly, I feel that Germany would have continued its path to defeat - but the world might well have witnessed another 12 months or so of the most terrible carnage.

At the very least, the psychological impact of just one conventional bomb would have been considerable, had it been dropped.

Thankfully, these possibilities have slipped into the realm of mere hypothesis.

Udet made a mess of the German a/c industry. After his death, no one stepped up to unravel the chaos he left behind.

I quite agree - but I do think that Speer tried. Of course, he was really in charge of overall war production, wasn't he? I don't think he knew a Messerschmitt from a hole in the ground! As evidenced by his attitude to the utilization of the Me262, Hitler wasn't too great on this either!

But he was calling all the shots! And you didn't argue with Adolf (...well, ... a few tried...!)

In some respects, we have both digressed to a small degree from the initial question posed, but there is relevance here in one respect ...

Great changes and reversals in history can take place through small and seemingly inconspicuous events or decisions. We should not assume that just because the result of WWII was what it was .... that it was a "cake-walk" !

To do so would be an insult to all those guys who stuck it out through those late campaigns - the Ardennes offensive, Iwo-Jima, Tarawa and the "Battle of Berlin". Even the crew of the Enola Gay didn't really know what they could have been in for ... (And let us not forget that the B-29 wasn't perfect....it had the notorious habit of igniting, whenever it was 'fired up' .... !)

Regards, (and much respect !),

ジョン

Hiroshi66 · 7 Mar 2005

I was on a trip to Carmel and just returned today, but we passed by Goleta. Where exactly did the Japanese bomb? In Downtown Goleta, per se?

Sensuikan San · 7 Mar 2005

The 'Goleta incident' was a shelling, not a bombing.

It appears that the target was (what was then) the Signal Oil & Gas plant at Elwood. (I don't know the area - I presume that that is a suburb of Goleta or Santa Barbara...)

I don't know how many shells were fired - but it must have been quite a few (the figure I have seen was 29) ... the shelling lasted for about thirty minutes. Apparently, there was no retaliation, in spite of many calls!

Nobody was hurt, and property damage was minimal - about $500 to catwalks, a shed, and the reduction gear to an oil well pump!

The submarine responsible was HIJMS I-17, and the skipper was Kozo Nishino ... and there's a funny sidebar story to him ... !

It appears that he had been a Merchant skipper before the war, and had visited that area many times. Apparently, sometime in the 1930s as a gesture of hospitality, he was being escorted ashore by executives of the Richfield Oil Company on one of his trips, when .... he tripped, and fell into some *****ly pear cactus!

They say that he never recovered from the loss of face!

After the goleta shelling, it seems that he signalled to Tokyo that he had left Santa Barbara "...a seething mass of flames ...."

My sources tell me that this was not true.....

(My main source for this information, by the way, is a book entitled "Retaliation: Japanese Attacks and Allied Countermeasures on the Pacific Coast in World War II" by Bert Webber - Oregon State University Press, 1975. Now, I believe 'out of print')

Best Regards,

ジョン

P.S. I just reviewed my post - did you see what the forum did to "*****ly Pear Cactus" ? What is the world coming to !

What a load of Bollocks!

Ahaaa! .... it only speaks American!

Thank God I'm bi-lingual!

Hiroshi66 · 13 Mar 2005

Ah, I see - thanks! I wonder if the oil company still exists to this day?

Did the Imperial Japanese Navy waste its potential against North America ?

sabro

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