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COVID-19 Coronavirus: situation in Japan

It strikes me how quickly we've become used to this. According to Thomas's table, about 2000 people died from Covid in Japan last week, and it's become accepted as part of the background news. On a rather morbid note, the current estimate for the number of excess deaths for Japan is about 135,000. Note that the figure was negative for much of 2020 because elderly people weren't going out much, greatly reducing their chances of getting influenza, etc. Excess deaths is a more useful statistic than the raw number of deaths for measuring the impact of Covid because it takes into account 1) the fact that many of the people who died of Covid probably had low life expectancy because of their age and 2) the effect of Covid on the health system because of delayed operations, reduced quality of healthcare, etc., because of resources diverted to treating Covid patients.

Estimated cumulative excess deaths during COVID
 
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On the topic of getting used to the stats: I wish we had comparable data on influenza from the pre-Covid period.
 
I'm not sure that such data could be generated. It's relatively easy to compare mortality in a Covid world and a pre-Covid world but influenza has always been with us, so there is no influenza-free baseline for comparison.
 
The weekly updates (28 Dec 2022 - 03 Jan 2023):


Nationwide infections:

28/12 (Wed)29/12 (Thu)30/12 (Fri)31/12 (Sat)01/01 (Son)02/01 (Mon)03/01 (Tue)
216,209 (+ 15,103)
192,063 (+ 7,688)
148,784 (- 24,552)
107,465 (- 70,157)
86,924 (- 62,741)
76,264 (- 992)
89,643 (- 113,210)

Nationwide deaths:

28/12 (Wed)29/12 (Thu)30/12 (Fri)31/12 (Sat)01/01 (Son)02/01 (Mon)03/01 (Tue)
415 (+ 119)
420 (+ 81)
326 (+ 11)
292 (- 47)
247 (- 59)
208 (- 9)
223 (- 48)

Nationwide Seriously Ill:

28/12 (Wed)29/12 (Thu)30/12 (Fri)31/12 (Sat)01/01 (Son)02/01 (Mon)03/01 (Tue)
577 (+ 47)
565 (+ 20)
574 (+ 38)
530 (+ 48)
592 (+ 36)
595 (+ 32)
602 (+ 20)

Tokyo:

28/12 (Wed)29/12 (Thu)30/12 (Fri)31/12 (Sat)01/01 (Son)02/01 (Mon)03/01 (Tue)
20,243 (- 943)
18,372 (- 448)
14,525 (- 2,807)
18,731 (+ 1,759)
9,186 (- 6,217)
7,537 (- 891)
9,628 (- 12,435)


Vaccinations as of 5 Jan 2023:

292,950,019 292,760,075 (+ 189,944) = 83.1% of population
Third vaccination (booster): 85,262,832 85,123,339 (+ 139,493) = 67.7% of population
 
The weekly updates (28 Dec 2022 - 03 Jan 2023):


Nationwide infections:

28/12 (Wed)29/12 (Thu)30/12 (Fri)31/12 (Sat)01/01 (Son)02/01 (Mon)03/01 (Tue)
216,209 (+ 15,103)
192,063 (+ 7,688)
148,784 (- 24,552)
107,465 (- 70,157)
86,924 (- 62,741)
76,264 (- 992)
89,643 (- 113,210)

Nationwide deaths:

28/12 (Wed)29/12 (Thu)30/12 (Fri)31/12 (Sat)01/01 (Son)02/01 (Mon)03/01 (Tue)
415 (+ 119)
420 (+ 81)
326 (+ 11)
292 (- 47)
247 (- 59)
208 (- 9)
223 (- 48)

Nationwide Seriously Ill:

28/12 (Wed)29/12 (Thu)30/12 (Fri)31/12 (Sat)01/01 (Son)02/01 (Mon)03/01 (Tue)
577 (+ 47)
565 (+ 20)
574 (+ 38)
530 (+ 48)
592 (+ 36)
595 (+ 32)
602 (+ 20)

Tokyo:

28/12 (Wed)29/12 (Thu)30/12 (Fri)31/12 (Sat)01/01 (Son)02/01 (Mon)03/01 (Tue)
20,243 (- 943)
18,372 (- 448)
14,525 (- 2,807)
18,731 (+ 1,759)
9,186 (- 6,217)
7,537 (- 891)
9,628 (- 12,435)


Vaccinations as of 5 Jan 2023:

292,950,019 292,760,075 (+ 189,944) = 83.1% of population
Third vaccination (booster): 85,262,832 85,123,339 (+ 139,493) = 67.7% of population
Thanks Thomas. Always appreciate the updates.
 
More green in the weekly updates, but the number of Covid-19-related deaths is increasing: Japan reported a single-day record of 498 deaths on 5 January, while highs for newly confirmed infections were set in twelve prefectures, mainly in western parts of the country.

Overall, 231,053 new COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the nation as of 7:30 p.m. on Jan. 5. [...] Nine of Japan's 47 prefectures--Fukushima, Tochigi, Gunma, Aichi, Mie, Shimane, Okayama, Fukuoka and Oita--posted their most COVID-19 deaths for a single day. Aichi Prefecture had the highest number of deaths, with 34, followed by Tochigi Prefecture, with 33. The 12 prefectures that saw record-high new cases were: Gunma, Gifu, Shimane, Okayama, Yamaguchi, Kagawa, Ehime, Saga, Kumamoto, Oita, Miyazaki and Kagoshima. Tokyo had the most new cases, with 20,735, up by 2,363 from the previous Thursday, followed by Osaka Prefecture, with 15,772, and Aichi Prefecture, with 13,174.



Last December a record 7,688 people died from COVID-19, exceeding the previous monthly high of 7,329 logged in August in the last wave.

 
The weekly updates (4-10 January 2023). Sorry for the delay.


Nationwide infections:

04/01 (Wed)05/01 (Thu)06/01 (Fri)07/01 (Sat)08/01 (Son)09/01 (Mon)10/01 (Tue)
104,304 (- 111,905)
226,904 (+ 34,841)
245,542 (+ 96,758)
238,654 (+ 131,1897)
190,538 (+ 103,614)
95,308 (+ 19,044)
75,504 (- 14,139)

Nationwide deaths:

04/01 (Wed)05/01 (Thu)06/01 (Fri)07/01 (Sat)08/01 (Son)09/01 (Mon)10/01 (Tue)
218 (- 197)
334 (- 86)
456 (+ 130)
463 (+ 171)
407 (+ 160)
336 (+ 128)
253 (+ 30)

Nationwide Seriously Ill:

04/01 (Wed)05/01 (Thu)06/01 (Fri)07/01 (Sat)08/01 (Son)09/01 (Mon)10/01 (Tue)
615 (+ 38)
650 (+ 85)
659 (+ 85)
668 (+ 138)
671 (+ 79)
648 (+ 53)
656 (+ 54)

Tokyo:

04/01 (Wed)05/01 (Thu)06/01 (Fri)07/01 (Sat)08/01 (Son)09/01 (Mon)10/01 (Tue)
10,554 (- 9,689)
20,735 (+ 2,363)
20,720 (+ 6,195)
19,630 (+ 899)
15,124 (+ 5,938)
8,199 (+ 662)
7,462 (- 2,166)


Vaccinations as of 13 Jan 2023:

293,145,992 (+ 195,973) = 83.2% of population
Third vaccination (booster): 85,387,517 (+ 124,685) = 67.8% of population
 
Also, sadly today, Saturday, was the first time the death toll for a single day has topped 500. :(

 
Correction: according to Asahi, 520 people died on 11 January.



The eighth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic strains medical services: more cases but fewer worries.

The number of infected patients has been surging again since the year-end and New Year holiday period, the first in three years that was free from virus-related restrictions. According to Asahi Shimbun calculations, a single-day record of 520 COVID-19-related deaths was reported across Japan on Jan. 11, while hospital beds continue to fill up with seriously ill infected patients. Some medical facilities are so strained that they cannot accept emergency patients. Yet the current eighth wave of infections in Japan could get worse because the public has been letting its guard down, said Kazuma Tashiro, director of Hinata Zaitaku Clinic Sanno in Tokyo's Shinagawa Ward. "The infections are becoming more common at a level never seen before, but society is significantly less worried about it now," he said.

 
How ever Covid came about , it seems to be so dangerous on how it keeps mutating and won't go away.

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it seems to be so dangerous on how it keeps mutating and won't go away.
I have no reason to believe the rate of mutation is in any way odd for any corona virus. Seems standard. Corona viruses have always been with us and never truly went away, even if they usually seem to in spring.

As for the deaths, are these so excessive compared to any other year? Last year, at least in the U.S. if I remember correctly, flu deaths were way, way down. This is not because we mastered the flu, its just because people died from Covid instead....although I heard credible reports that covid deaths were over-accounted for for various reasons.

To be fair, I cannot say anything above is rock solid information. I am just saying that my view is very different on the current situation, but, I fear I am as factless as everyone else as far that goes.

I can accept that Covid has surely caused excessive deaths, but there are plenty of other things to worry about as well.
 
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The weekly updates (11-17 January 2023):


Nationwide infections:

11/01 (Wed)12/01 (Thu)13/01 (Fri)14/01 (Sat)15/01 (Son)16/01 (Mon)17/01 (Tue)
198,873 (+ 94,569)
185,472 (- 41,432)
144,077 (- 101,465)
132,071 (- 106,583)
108,281 (- 82,257)
54,378 (- 40,930)
126,989 (+ 51,485)

Nationwide deaths:

11/01 (Wed)12/01 (Thu)13/01 (Fri)14/01 (Sat)15/01 (Son)16/01 (Mon)17/01 (Tue)
381 (+ 163)
489 (+ 155)
480 (+ 24)
503 (+ 40)
415 (+ 8)
284 (- 52)
357 (+ 104)

Nationwide Seriously Ill:

11/01 (Wed)12/01 (Thu)13/01 (Fri)14/01 (Sat)15/01 (Son)16/01 (Mon)17/01 (Tue)
665 (+ 50)
697 (+ 47)
695 (+ 36)
693 (+ 25)
672 (+ 1)
687 (+ 39)
690 (+ 34)

Tokyo:

11/01 (Wed)12/01 (Thu)13/01 (Fri)14/01 (Sat)15/01 (Son)16/01 (Mon)17/01 (Tue)
16,772 (+ 6,218)
13,427 (- 7,308)
11,241 (- 9,479)
10,727 (- 8,903)
8,269 (- 6,855)
4,433 (- 3,766)
11,120 (+ 3,658)


Vaccinations as of 18 Jan 2023:

293,288,481 (+ 142,489) = 83.3% of population
Third vaccination (booster): 85,484,452 (+ 96,935) = 67.9% of population
 
The Japanese government is set to decide Friday whether to drop COVID-19 to its least serious category of infectious diseases this spring.


The reclassification, which would put it on par with seasonal flu, would lead to significant changes in how Japan responds to COVID-19, including public assistance for healthcare providers and patients and quarantine guidelines. Japan is also set to scrap recommendations for indoor masking once the change has been made. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet with relevant ministers on Friday to discuss the proposals. One proposal would make the downgrade in April or May to give local authorities and medical institutions time to prepare. [...] Downgrading the virus -- which is now in Japan's second-highest disease category, alongside tuberculosis -- would limit the government's response. Steps such as recommending hospitalizations or recommending people stay home will be limited to these more severe conditions. People with COVID-19 and close contacts would no longer be asked to self-isolate. The government will likely allow any facility that would typically treat patients with illnesses like the flu to see patients who may have COVID-19 rather than limiting them to designated fever clinics. The health ministry will soon ask municipalities and medical centres to adjust accordingly.


Paywall alert:
 
It's been decided: COVID-19 will be reclassified and put in the same category as seasonal flu as the government looks to focus on economic recovery. The change will take place in spring.

The downgrade will bring COVID-19 to rank in category five, meaning state of emergency declarations will not be declared. Those who become infected or come into close contact with the infected will not be required to quarantine either. Public funding of medical expenses will be phased out and the government is also looking to scrap its indoor mask recommendation. COVID vaccinations are currently offered to all residents of Japan free of charge. How the vaccine will be administered after the downgrade will also be taken up by the government.

Paywall alert:


Officially unmasked indoors? Won't happen in Japan.
 
I go to Cosmos with no mask at night, though daytime i will wear it since the university students here are required. At the university library I take my mask off. The students still wear them while studying. Weird.
 
The weekly updates ( 18-24 January 2023):



Nationwide infections:

18/01 (Wed)19/01 (Thu)20/01 (Fri)21/01 (Sat)22/01 (Son)23/01 (Mon)24/01 (Tue)
125,108 (- 73,765)
96,392 (- 89,080)
82,614 (- 61,463)
78,954 (- 53,117)
64,450 (- 43,831)
32,571 (- 21,807)
81,535 (- 45,454)

Nationwide deaths:

18/01 (Wed)19/01 (Thu)20/01 (Fri)21/01 (Sat)22/01 (Son)23/01 (Mon)24/01 (Tue)
449 (+ 68)
451 (- 38)
425 (- 55)
398 (- 105)
326 (- 89)
253 (- 31)
307 (- 50)

Nationwide Seriously Ill:

18/01 (Wed)19/01 (Thu)20/01 (Fri)21/01 (Sat)22/01 (Son)23/01 (Mon)24/01 (Tue)
689 (+ 24)
681 (- 16)
673 (- 22)
683 (- 10)
671 (- 1)
644 (- 43)
638 (- 52)

Tokyo:

18/01 (Wed)19/01 (Thu)20/01 (Fri)21/01 (Sat)22/01 (Son)23/01 (Mon)24/01 (Tue)
9,187 (- 7,585)
7,719 (- 5,708)
6,603 (- 4,638)
6,607 (- 4,120)
5,110 (- 3,159)
2,677 (- 1,756)
7,306 (- 3,814)


Vaccinations as of 26 Jan 2023:

293,464,857 (+ 176,376) = 83.3% of population
Third vaccination (booster): 85,624,648 (+ 140,196) = 68.0% of population
 
Japan will officially downgrade COVID-19 to 'common infectious disease' on 8 May.

The government is expected to decide Friday on the planned downgrade of COVID-19's category to Class 5, relaxing currently imposed steps, including restrictive measures and designation of hospitals for treatment, as the disease has become less deadly. In Japan, COVID-19 is currently designated as a special category equivalent to or stricter than Class 2, which covers infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, under the law. [...]
Once COVID-19 is downgraded to Class 5, the quarantine period of seven days for people infected with the virus and five days for those who have been in close contact with an infectious patient will be scrapped. If the plans go ahead, COVID-19 patients will also receive medical treatment in ordinary hospitals instead of designated facilities, and the government will stop paying hospitalization and care costs for infected people. In March, the Kishida administration will decide how much funding the government will provide for the treatment of COVID-19 patients and how long such funding will continue, the sources said.

Paywall alert:
 
A sad record: while infection rates are declining, Japan's monthly COVID deaths top 10,000 for the first time.


A total of 252 new coronavirus deaths were reported in Japan on Saturday, bringing the death toll for January to 10,124, the first time a monthly figure has exceeded 10,000, according to a tally based on prefectural reports. COVID-19 deaths have been rapidly increasing in the country since around November when the number of infected people rebounded. More than 7,600 people died in December, the highest monthly total at that time. About 54,800 new infections were reported nationwide Saturday, according to prefectural governments, while the health ministry said there are 533 severe cases, down 24 from Friday. Daily infections have been declining since the middle of the month.


 
Those deaths are really beginning to worry me.
In April, I'll start to cycle around Japan. I mentioned I'll probably go to Shikoku, but I also posted about Miyakojima and Hokkaido.
I did get as far as Toyama and got to Okinawa, but never got to the above.
As always, thanks for keeping us updated.
Wife is scheduled for her 5th booster soon.
 
The weekly updates (25-31 January 2023):


Nationwide infections:

25/01 (Wed)26/01 (Thu)27/01 (Fri)28/01 (Sat)29/01 (Son)30/01 (Mon)31/01 (Tue)
79,354 (- 45,754)
59,885 (- 36,507)
53,911 (- 28,703)
54,782 (- 24,172)
44,729 (- 19,721)
21,426 (- 11,145)
57,264 (- 24,271)

Nationwide deaths:

25/01 (Wed)26/01 (Thu)27/01 (Fri)28/01 (Sat)29/01 (Son)30/01 (Mon)31/01 (Tue)
368 (- 81)
410 (- 41)
343 (- 82)
338 (- 60)
251 (- 75)
206 (- 47)
246 (- 61)

Nationwide Seriously Ill:

25/01 (Wed)26/01 (Thu)27/01 (Fri)28/01 (Sat)29/01 (Son)30/01 (Mon)31/01 (Tue)
613 (- 76)
585 (- 96)
557 (- 116)
533 (- 150)
522 (- 149)
531 (- 113)
508 (- 130)

Tokyo:

25/01 (Wed)26/01 (Thu)27/01 (Fri)28/01 (Sat)29/01 (Son)30/01 (Mon)31/01 (Tue)
5,934 (- 3,253)
7,719 (- 5,708)
4,297 (- 2,306)
4,515 (- 2,092)
3,427 (- 1,683)
1,818 (- 859)
4,862 (- 2,444)


Vaccinations as of 31 Jan 2023:

293,579,655 (+ 114,798) = 83.4% of population
Third vaccination (booster): 85,712,321 (+ 87,673) = 68.1% of population
 
The weekly updates (01-07 Feb 2023):


Nationwide infections:

01/02 (Wed)02/02 (Thu)03/02 (Fri)04/02 (Sat)05/02 (Son)06/02 (Mon)07/02 (Tue)
55,537 (- 23,817)
45,299 (- 14,586)
39,924 (- 13,987)
38,581 (- 16,201)
32,459 (- 12,270)
15,612 (- 5,814)
41,438 (- 15,826)

Nationwide deaths:

01/02 (Wed)02/02 (Thu)03/02 (Fri)04/02 (Sat)05/02 (Son)06/02 (Mon)07/02 (Tue)
308 (- 60)
397 (- 13)
237 (- 106)
256 (- 82)
188 (- 63)
124 (- 82)
161 (- 85)

Nationwide Seriously Ill:

01/02 (Wed)02/02 (Thu)03/02 (Fri)04/02 (Sat)05/02 (Son)06/02 (Mon)07/02 (Tue)
496 (- 117)
475 (- 110)
440 (- 117)
424 (- 109)
405 (- 117)
406 (- 125)
410 (- 98)

Tokyo:

01/02 (Wed)02/02 (Thu)03/02 (Fri)04/02 (Sat)05/02 (Son)06/02 (Mon)07/02 (Tue)
4,012 (- 1,922)
3,502 (- 4,217)
2,941 (- 1,356)
2,992 (- 1,523)
2,287 (- 1,140)
1,105 (- 713)
3,131 (- 1,731)


Vaccinations as of 07 Feb 2023:

293,728,026 (+ 148,371) = 83.5% of population
Third vaccination (booster): 85,819,435 (+ 107,114) = 68.2% of population
 
The health ministry has decided to continue the free coronavirus vaccination program for all eligible from April. The next round of additional vaccinations is being coordinated to be offered in the fall or winter this year.

The elderly in Japan are allowed to receive up to five vaccinations, and others over 12 years old can get as many as four jabs. As for who is eligible for the vaccinations, priority will continue to be given to the elderly and others at risk of developing serious symptoms. However, since there are some cases in which people become seriously ill even if they are not at such a risk, free vaccinations will continue for the time being, as in the past. The vaccination of children aged 5 to 11 years and infants aged 6 months to 4 years will also continue while taking into consideration the short period of time since the start of their shots.

 
In this year's graduation ceremony throughout the nation, students will no longer have to wear masks, according to yesterday's statement by PM Kishida. Kishida said with necessary precautions implemented, such as air ventilation measures, students and teaching staff can attend graduation ceremonies without wearing a mask except when they sing the national anthem and other songs. The central government is expected to change its policy in mid-March and leave whether to wear a mask up to the individual.


Some schools and some Diet members have asked the central government to allow for no masking at graduation ceremonies, saying that the graduating students have been wearing a mask at school for the past three years. "I think there will be children who will want to wear a mask," Kishida said. "I strongly urge (schools) not to force such children to remove their masks." Regarding the mask policy at graduation ceremonies, the education ministry is expected to issue a notice to education boards nationwide as early as the evening of Feb. 10. "In principle, students and teaching staff do not need to wear a mask throughout the graduation ceremonies," the notice will say.


 
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