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COVID-19 Coronavirus: situation in Japan

The numbers of detected new cases in Japan has been quite an up-down roller coaster even over mere days.

April 04 204
April 05 515
April 06 252
April 07 351
April 08 410
April 09 680
April 10 183

Going from 680 to 183 really makes it seem like the bottom dropped out. But my prediction is that the numbers will be in this range or more until 4/15 and then drop and sit at a low number for the remainder of spring and summer.

And lest anyone have a complete conniption I did say this was MY prediction. You can take it or leave it just don't freak out cause I have no power to actually do anything with it and neither does anyone here. And neither Abe nor Trump nor anyone with power is interested in a single thing any of us say. Okay?


Japan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Japan Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
 
Brave of you to make a prediction! I made a rather grim prediction to myself on the 4th that there will be 20000 cases in two weeks and after that the number of new cases will rapidly drop and we will end up in a similar situation to South Korea by June. With the recent images of relatively busy rush hours in Tokyo, I think the number of new cases will take longer to drop.

I don't think too much weight should be given to a single day of results - apparently there are big fluctuations due to the irregular way cases are reported and the reduced amount of testing at weekends.
 


It may even be more then that. You have a lot of people leaving the cities and going back to their home towns. But I do agree with you though.
Did they just close all universities in Tokyo today?
 
As of a little after 8:00pm, there were 33 prefectures reporting a total of 455 new cases so far today (10th). There are 14 other prefectures yet to report. Here are the daily numbers as reported by NHK. The numbers are more or less relentlessly increasing, except for every Monday when there is some limitations on the numbers of testing facilities reporting from the previous day.


新型コロナウイルス 感染者数やNHK最新ニュース｜NHK特設サイト

【NHK】新型コロナウイルスの日本国内の感染者数や最新ニュースはこちらです。初期症状や感染予防の情報、ワクチン・治療薬・PCR検査に関する最新情報、補助金・助成金などの支援情報、学校関連の情報、政府や各都道府県の対応、分科会の見解や提言、番組のお知らせなどをまとめています。
www3.nhk.or.jp
 
It seems like every country has been caught off guard by not understanding how exponential growth works. Even if Japan has managed to cut the rate in half it would still get to quite dramatic numbers if no action is taken.
 
mdchachi said:
It seems like every country has been caught off guard by not understanding how exponential growth works. Even if Japan has managed to cut the rate in half it would still get to quite dramatic numbers if no action is taken.
Click to expand...

Its debatable. In fact, some actions can make things worse.

For example, Tokyo's mayor has asked bars and izakayas to close early. That could create crowding as customers who would otherwise come late come early instead and ensure the places are packed.

And I just had a friend complain about feeling her social life is a target even though it amounts to just a few people getting together, but meanwhile, everyone went to work that morning on crowded public transportation while she went to work alone in a car so who is the real villain? And can targeting fringe cases while ignoring the main drivers be properly termed "taking action"?? Seems a lot more like effecting distraction to me.
 
I think that the other messages that people are getting on social distancing will make it unlikely that most people will enter a crowded izakaya where they will have to be near others.
Though I do agree that the emphasis on measures has been very one-sided with not nearly enough pressure on conventional office-type businesses and too much blaming of young people.
'Distraction' is a nice word to describe the way this tragedy is being dealt with and reported in Japan.

And does anyone else find the overwhelming emphasis on the statistics for Tokyo a bit odd? It's sometimes as if the rest of the country doesn't exist!
 
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Well I meant "effective" action. Of course it's possible to make things worse.
 
Lothor said:
And does anyone else find the overwhelming emphasis on the statistics for Tokyo a bit odd? It's sometimes as if the rest of the country doesn't exist!
Click to expand...
Isn't a Tokyo-centric bias pretty typical for the media though? Are any other mayors taking actions like Tokyo's? She seems to be the most vocal and active. Or the media is completely ignoring the others.
 
A certain amount of metropolitan is probably inevitable in all countries but I wrote my comment thinking about the news, where the figure for Tokyo is very prominently reported in the headlines but the total figure for Japan is often buried deep in the news. Some infections are clearly more important than others!
 
The Tokyo-centric bias really doesn't surprise me. Pretty much all the national news networks are based here, after all. And the governor (not mayor; sorry to nitpick) of Tokyo, Koike Yuriko is a pretty major political figure, so of course she gets a lot of attention. I wouldn't say at all that she's the only one "taking action", though. The (relatively young) governors of Osaka and Hokkaido have also been showing up on the news from time to time and getting quite a bit of positive press.

And as for the figures, I mean, it's a combination of the above media bias and the fact that the Tokyo numbers are by far the highest in the country, right? It would be like if the US had New York and then a bunch of other less-populated states with half or less the number of cases. I don't think anyone is denying that it's an issue for the whole country or that the people suffering in other prefectures aren't "important", it's just that Tokyo sticks out the most because (1) it's Tokyo, and (2) the outbreak is most severe here.


Lothor said:
Though I do agree that the emphasis on measures has been very one-sided with not nearly enough pressure on conventional office-type businesses and too much blaming of young people.
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more with both of you. It's quite frustrating, really, to see the vilification and targeting of certain groups (less privileged groups, really), while ignoring the larger societal problems. (Because god knows the government types calling the shots are still getting their fat paychecks throughout all of this.)

One guy I know who runs a sake bar likened it to being stark naked in the a middle of a massive snowstorm. Then a bunch of bureaucrats in full snow gear show up and say "this might be tough, but you have to deal with it for the country's sake."
 
mdchachi said:
Well I meant "effective" action. Of course it's possible to make things worse.
Click to expand...

I will even go so far as to say "likely" to make things worse. Oh, I am sure we will not agree on that, but at least I think we have isolated a crux of some of our disagreement on this.

I am still hoping that spring will make all the difference because I have zero faith in our "authorities" whether political or scientific.
 
The numbers changed completely. Now it says 658 new cases for April 10. Oh well, its still not exponential. Its almost the same as the day before.
 
Mark of Zorro said:
The numbers changed completely. Now it says 658 new cases for April 10. Oh well, its still not exponential. Its almost the same as the day before.
Click to expand...
It's exponential. I know you don't have much faith in scientists but trust me on this - I have a degree in maths and used to teach maths in college up to solving differential equations - many of the simplest ones produce exponential functions.
When you plot a graph with a log scale on the vertical axis (1, 10, 100, 1000 rather than 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000) and you get a straight line, you have exponential growth. You can see for yourself on the graph on this site for the number of cases in Japan: an almost perfect straight line is what you get. As I said before, you have to focus on the trend not on a single day of figures.

Japan COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Japan Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info
 
That's such a generic statement I'm not even going to try to argue about it. Any action will make some things worse and some things better. It's easy to second guess and will be very difficult to prove after the fact. Hindsight being 20/20 I'm sure they will find many mistakes and unintended repercussions.
Mark of Zorro said:
The numbers changed completely. Now it says 658 new cases for April 10. Oh well, its still not exponential. Its almost the same as the day before.
Click to expand...
That would seem to indicate that the measures that have been taken have been working. But with the trend still not reversing one can see why they are moving to more aggressive measures. As an aside, I wonder how reliable the numbers are. If it's like the U.S. if somebody dies that wasn't formally confirmed as having the virus it's not counted. And I believe they are still not routinely checking postmortem.
Lothor said:
It's exponential.
Click to expand...
I posted this before but this site is good for ease of use and you can check any country or state and easily toggle between linear and exponential scales.

Covid Trends

Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.
aatishb.com
 
Lothor said:
And does anyone else find the overwhelming emphasis on the statistics for Tokyo a bit odd? It's sometimes as if the rest of the country doesn't exist!
Click to expand...
They are odd because of the "non" testing not being publicly done.
The reason why...
I'll tell ya now. People have got to take the subways and trains to work. Let them catch it and then we don't have to say close down the transportation, its already down in some areas by 30%. Pretty smart, but I first came here in the early 70's and I always and still do feel, govt. officials are not that kind to the "general public". I was here when all the old timers ran this country and it was a political hell hole at the time. I see it repeating itself now again.
 
Lothor said:
As I said before, you have to focus on the trend not on a single day of figures.
Click to expand...

The post you quoted was simply updating one number on a list (trend) I posted.

April 10 was listed as 183 when I first saw it. It was later revised to 658.

Even in the pre-update post I used the word "seem" precisely because I was not focusing so hard on a daily change. I presented a list and predicted similar to higher numbers until the 15th. Again, not focusing on a single day's change.

Lothor said:
you have exponential growth.
Click to expand...

I never said "exponential growth", which is a clearly defined statistical term. I just said (not) exponential (change) cause I was talking about just two numbers, the revised figure for April 10 and the previous day (by extension of the post I was updating). But I admit I was not clear about that in the update post. You might have thought I meant the change from 183 to 658 was not exponential? Or are you saying that going from 680 to 658 is an exponential change?
 
Last edited:
mdchachi said:
That would seem to indicate that the measures that have been taken have been working.
Click to expand...

That certainly is not my stance. I am still blaming spring. In no way do I believe any of the government endorsed half measures have done anything good. The work of doctors and nurses however I do believe has had an effect but still I put spring first, especially with people still going to work and riding crowded trains and buses etc.

mdchachi said:
But with the trend still not reversing one can see why they are moving to more aggressive measures.
Click to expand...

Well yeah if one thinks the underlying reasoning is political points and the statistics look like good leverage for a politician. I sure do. As I predicted and still predict, the government is going to claim credit for what spring did.

In four days we will see if I am right or wrong. In a few more days over that we will see if I was at least close.
 
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I'm saying that the trend of the statistics has been exponential over the last few weeks. The true situation is anyone's guess but my instinct is that it's exponential growth with a much higher number of cases. Regarding the two numbers you gave - I think that recently Worldometers has first given the change as the number of new cases in Tokyo, which comes out late afternoon, and then has updated the number the next morning to include all the cases throughout Japan. But as I said, it's only one day of numbers, which is going to be subjected to all kinds of noise.
 
You're including canceling school, large sporting events and gatherings as not doing anything good?
Doctors and nurses can do nothing to stop the spread. It's the so-called social distancing that is key.
Your don't have to wait until spring. Parts of Japan and other parts of the world already have moderate spring/summer-like climate. Take a look at their numbers.
 
Lothor said:
It's exponential. I know you don't have much faith in scientists but trust me on this - I have a degree in maths and used to teach maths in college up to solving differential equations - many of the simplest ones produce exponential functions.
...
Click to expand...

Then you probably understand this?
The first answer/comment there (actually any answer) is supposed to be explaining as you would to a 5 year old... I'm ancient and can't follow it all--esp. when they correct the OPs constant, and then suggest a better way.

 
mdchachi said:
You're including canceling school, large sporting events and gatherings as not doing anything good?
Click to expand...

Well lets say not much good, and with cancelling school, a heck of a lot of bad. As I have often said, I would have approached this from the angle of isolating those most susceptible rather than everybody else. As I have also said, only spring is really going to slow this down.

mdchachi said:
Doctors and nurses can do nothing to stop the spread.
Click to expand...

Of course they cannot STOP it. But they can SLOW it by detecting Covid 19 patients and isolating them and also by properly handling, storing and preparing for burial those that have died.

mdchachi said:
Your don't have to wait until spring. Parts of Japan and other parts of the world already have moderate spring/summer-like climate.
Click to expand...

It IS spring. But the virus takes one to two weeks for symptoms to appear from infection. And if one were infected on a wintery day and the following two weeks were spring like, its not likely much difference to whether one will show symptoms or not.

mdchachi said:
Take a look at their numbers.
Click to expand...

You need to be specific about what areas you are claiming has had spring like weather since when exactly. I do not keep track of regional weather patterns.
 
Yesterday, 36 prefectures reported a total of 743 new covid19 cases. NHK has yet to update their graphic with yesterday's numbers, so as of now it is still only showing data up to the 10th. It may increase as the remaining prefectures make their reports. If you want to visualize what it will look like as of April 11th, just imagine a new yellow bar reaching the very top grey horizontal line.
 
April 12, 2020 Easter Sunday afternoon Tokyo

1. I wonder how many Japanese have died of the flu this season? I can't find a number for that.
2.. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government announced on April 11 that it was confirmed that 197 new people were infected with the new coronavirus in Tokyo. From the 8th of this month, the record was updated for the fourth consecutive day, bringing the total number of infected people in Tokyo to 1902.
3. Taiwan Published document sent to WHO at the end of December "Atypical pneumonia in Wuhan". The U.S. State Department criticized the WHO on Wednesday, saying "it did not provide the international community with an early notification from Taiwan.
4. President Tsai Ing-wen, (of Taiwan) Wednesday that his facebook said, "Taiwan has been excluded from international organizations for many years and has a taste of discrimination and isolation more than anyone. I would like you (Tedross) to come to Taiwan and see how we work to contribute to the international community while receiving discrimination. "
5. In Japan now with the spread of the new coronavirus, 31 doctors across the country were infected by the new coronavirus by 10th of this month, and three of them died. Did CNN cover this?
6. In Tokyo and Shinjuku Ward, the staff who is watching over the city's unique business of keeping children of dual-income families at elementary schools was infected with the new coronavirus, so about 2,400 children who were scheduled to start this week Lunch has been canceled.
7. Today's chart: That's the number of cases yesterday.





Update for Japan

To date, 78 new cases have been reported. As of 4:00 pm on the 12th, the number of cases confirmed in Japan was 7001, including those found by quarantine at airports and those who returned home on charter aircraft, exceeding 7,000.
In addition, the cruise ship has 712 passengers and crew members, bringing the total to 7,713. One new person has died in Hokkaido, and the number of people who died was 133 people infected in Japan and 12 cruise ship passengers, for a total of 145 people.

Among the confirmed cases in Japan:
1902 in Tokyo,
766 in Osaka,
515 in Kanagawa,
424 in Chiba,
378 in Saitama, 378 in
Hyogo, and 376 in
Aichi. 349 people
Fukuoka Prefecture, 347 people ( I posted a few times that Fukuoka will be head and toe with Tokyo, why, well the international airport is there. Also, subway and trains and Shinkansen
Hokkaido 267 people
Kyoto is 181 people (Kyoto now is considered a hot spot )
Gifu Prefecture, 106 people
Ishikawa Prefecture 104 people
Ibaraki Prefecture, 103 people
Fukui Prefecture, 88 people
Gunma Prefecture 79 people ( wow ! )
56 in Hiroshima, 56 in
Okinawa,
54 in Kochi,
45 in Miyagi,
42 in Niigata, 42 in
Oita,
41 in Shizuoka, 41 in
Nara, and 41 in
Toyama 40 people
Yamagata Prefecture, 38 people
Fukushima Prefecture, 38 people
Shiga Prefecture, 38 people
Wakayama Prefecture, 38 people
Tochigi Prefecture 35 people
Yamanashi Prefecture 33 people
Ehime Prefecture 30 people
Nagano Prefecture 28 People
: 27 in Kumamoto,
22 in Aomori,
19 in Yamaguchi,
17 in Mie, 17 in
Miyazaki, and
15 in Akita
There are 15 in Okayama,
14 in Nagasaki,
13 in Saga,
7 in Shimane,
6 in Kagawa,
4 in Kagoshima,
3 in Tokushima, and
1 in Tottori.

In addition, 127 employees and quarantine officers of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, and a total of 127 people were confirmed to be infected by airport quarantine, and 14 returned from China by charter aircraft.





8. According to official government reports from other counties, as of 12:00, Apr. 10, 1,554,816 infectious cases and 94,395 deaths were confirmed.

9. The United States on Saturday has passed Italy for the most confirmed covid-19 deaths in the world, with more than 20,000 fatalities, a figure experts have called "an underestimation."
10. New York's governor and New York City's mayor are again feuding, this time over school closings.
11. In the United States, meanwhile, unemployment figures continue to tick higher and could rival those of the Great Depression.
12. Japanese government urges 70% commuter cut in emergency zones, extends nightlife restriction request nationwide. Well, I can see the depression now. Clear as day.
13. 550 sailors aboard USS Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive for coronavirus
14. This looks encouraging : Doctor gambles on clot-busting drug to save virus patients. (anyone here have more info on this
15. A province in northern China is preparing thousands of hospital beds in anticipation of a surge of CCP virus patients—days after lockdown measures were relaxed in epicenter Wuhan, according to internal documents viewed by The Epoch Times.
Heilongjiang, China's northernmost province, locked down its border city of Suifenhe on April 7, which officials said was an attempt to stem the flow of imported cases from Russia.
16. This isn't good at all: As of Friday, 200 patients have died from the illness in the VA system. That's an increase of 26 fatalities from Thursday, marking the biggest one day increase the department has seen so far. On March 30, the total death toll was less than 20.
17. For those that want to follow Tokyo , Japan cases: stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp...
18. Illinois Health officials reported 1,293 new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday and 81 additional deaths.
19. For those in the Quad Cities: COVID-19: Quad-City cases top 200 Wow! It was just 60 the other day. Got family there. Sad to say my mother is in a care center and now they have patients with the virus. No info on my mother yet.
20. Japan to Pay Companies to Move Production Out of China. That is what every country should be doing.
Japan will devote more than $2.2 billion of its coronavirus economic stimulus package to incentivize its manufacturers to move their production out of China as relations fray between the neighboring countries in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. I also wonder if the American Bill has something like that in it ? Probably not.
21. About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC.

Well, that's it for this Easter Sunday.

Take care everyone.
 
A little bit of good news for Tokyoites; the number of new cases in Tokyo today (12th) is 166. This is down from the 197 of yesterday as mentioned above by musicisgood. Long may this trend continue.

I only hope these numbers strengthen the resolve to stay inside for a couple of weeks.
 
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