COVID-19 Coronavirus: general discussion

[Mark of Zorro]

The WHO worldometer website says:

ITALY SHUTS DOWN


Italy closes all commercial activities, offices, cafes, shops


Only transportation, pharmacies, groceries will remain open

I don't know if that means they shut down gas stations or not, but if they did that's gonna be a bad move.

 

[mdchachi]

Well yeah. If you can only see those and skip over closing down whole cities, such as in China and Italy, all the things in between and spreading panic in general, sure.

Who is panicking?

Trump just declared a national emergency after banning travel to continental Europe. Seems a bit of an over-reaction to Tom Hanks getting it in Australia. Abe will surely follow suit in declaring a national emergency.

I don't recall him saying it had anything to do with Tom Hanks. I'm sure the decision was based entirely on science and concern for what's best for the American people.

Italy has closed down cafes, restaurants and retail stores. Two of those sell food and some people really do rely on those for nutrition and without them will be eating things like cup noodle.

I haven't followed it closely but I would think they've realized that people need groceries.

The Canadian PM is isolating himself.

Sounds smart.

And more I cannot be bothered to tell such a forgetful person.

Thank goodness!

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Who is panicking?

I don't know if you are trying to annoy me...or....well there is only one other conclusion.

 

[okinawaholic]

My calculations using WHO numbers for Italy and Iran give the virus a 3.5 and 3.1 percent death rate respectively. That is dividing the known deaths from the virus by the known cases of the virus.

I used to think socialized care was great in Japan, until something like this came along and Italy and Japan proved that wrong. Italy, by denying elderly the right to care as there are only so many beds that can be given and Japan in that they will only test for COVID after a 4-day fever. The funding comes from somewhere, and it's us: our taxes. If we had private care, sure, it'd be more... but we'd get adequate care.

14 March WHO sitrep puts Italy at 17660 infected (and/or recovered) and a total of 1268 deaths. That's a mortality rate of 7.1% in a country that is supposed to have great and wonderful free/low healthcare for all.

Faced with tough choices, Italy is prioritizing young COVID-19 patients over the elderly. That likely 'would not fly' in the US.

In Italy, doctors are prioritizing young coronavirus patients over the elderly. An NYU medical ethicist said that "would not fly" in the US.

www.businessinsider.com

Read title: 'would fly' under Bernie's and any other Democrat healthcare for all plan.

I don't mean to bring politics to the table, but this is what (democratic) socialism looks like. Not what the media is selling you with toilet paper shortages.

Italy has closed down cafes, restaurants and retail stores. Two of those sell food and some people really do rely on those for nutrition and without them will be eating things like cup noodle.

They are most likely to die from secondary conditions due to this as well, bringing the mortality rate higher than it already is. Access to necessities can create more problems, especially if one is malnourished to fight a virus off, young or old. This is what I believe is happening in Wuhan: The numbers are going down, but they blockaded an entire area from entry/exit without quarantine.

 

[Lothor]

I used to think socialized care was great in Japan, until something like this came along and Italy and Japan proved that wrong. Italy, by denying elderly the right to care as there are only so many beds that can be given and Japan in that they will only test for COVID after a 4-day fever. The funding comes from somewhere, and it's us: our taxes. If we had private care, sure, it'd be more... but we'd get adequate care.

14 March WHO sitrep puts Italy at 17660 infected (and/or recovered) and a total of 1268 deaths. That's a mortality rate of 7.1% in a country that is supposed to have great and wonderful free/low healthcare for all.

Faced with tough choices, Italy is prioritizing young COVID-19 patients over the elderly. That likely 'would not fly' in the US.

In Italy, doctors are prioritizing young coronavirus patients over the elderly. An NYU medical ethicist said that "would not fly" in the US.

www.businessinsider.com

Read title: 'would fly' under Bernie's and any other Democrat healthcare for all plan.

I don't mean to bring politics to the table, but this is what (democratic) socialism looks like. Not what the media is selling you with toilet paper shortages.



They are most likely to die from secondary conditions due to this as well, bringing the mortality rate higher than it already is. Access to necessities can create more problems, especially if one is malnourished to fight a virus off, young or old. This is what I believe is happening in Wuhan: The numbers are going down, but they blockaded an entire area from entry/exit without quarantine.

You don't mean to bring politics to the table, but that's exactly what you have done, and intentionally. There can be no other possible reason for referring to Democrat healthcare plans. (And why is it that people keep bringing their non-Japan-related hobbyhorses to this site about Japan?)

Let's examine a few points. The number of infected people in a country is a fantastically complicated function of its population, climate (SE Asian countries have relatively few cases), connectivity with other countries (Singapore was an early leader in the number of cases because it is a transport hub), quality of healthcare, population density, population demographics, the habits of its residents, and even just plain luck - an apparently healthy person can infect several others. The situation is also changing extremely rapidly with the pandemic being in early stages. To make a football analogy, it's as if FC Barcelona have made a bad pass 15 minutes in the first half and you have concluded that Real Madrid are going to win the match, not that there are any winners in this tragic situation.
Choosing a single variable - socialised healthcare, I'll get to that later - and deciding that's the cause of a phenomenon when there clearly an enormous number of factors is something I'd fail a high school kid for. A wide array of complicated statistical methods have been developed to prevent people making such mistakes.

Now let's look at a few statistics. Japan has tested relatively few people but America has tested far fewer people per head of population. As of March 10, America had tested 26 people per million but Japan had tested 76 million people. Yet you are comparing Japan unfavourably with America in terms of testing! You're 180 degrees out there. Also the amount of testing may be due to political factors entirely unrelated to the healthcare system. Trump until very recently was declaring the whole thing a hoax and Japanese leaders have a certain vested interest to keep the numbers down because they don't want to cancel the Olympics. Whether these have made a difference or not, I don't know, but the situation is complex.

Next, you complain about the lack of hospital beds in Italy. Italy is 26th in the world in the number of beds per capita, USA is 32nd. Another erroneous comparison. Italy also can't treat all its elderly because it is overwhelmed at the moment due to its large number of cases, which is for all kinds of reasons unrelated to its healthcare system as I said before. If America had the same number of cases per capita, and it probably will have soon (its figures are rising more much more quickly than Japan's) it would be even more overwhelmed and the virus would be probably be spreading even more rapidly because the country has priced basic healthcare beyond the means of so many of its citizens.

Next, 'democratic socialism'. All three countries are democratic, at least the USA is for the moment, so what does democracy have to do with it? Socialism - describing the highly conservative LDP or the current Italian government with a large far-right presence as socialist displays a lack of understanding of the word, which seems to be used as a catch-all bogeyman by the right of America, a country that has never experienced socialism in any form.

Really, I didn't want to write all this and I've got much better things to do, but the coronavirus is a very serious and complicated problem and I think that if people are going to start analysing it and coming to conclusions, they need to be more informed and be doing it without a political axe to grind.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Read title: 'would fly' under Bernie's and any other Democrat healthcare for all plan.

I don't mean to bring politics to the table, but this is what (democratic) socialism looks like.

You are repeating American style right wing lies like a parrot. The things that go down in a crisis hardly have anything to do with every day socialized health care. You better believe that if and when a similar crisis hits the U.S., the government is going to hand down heavy-handed decisions concerning who gets what when. What its really going to come down to is if you approve of those decisions or not. If the Italian government has decided to prioritize the young over the old, that's on the government. There is nothing defining socialized medicine that indicates that route must be taken, nor is there anything that guarantees the U.S. system (which I note you have failed to assign a label) will not take a similar measure.

Keep in mind the U.S. government has banned all travel from Europe, including the U.K. now. It may not be related to the health care system, but is that the decision of a democracy? Looks like the sort of thing an American conservative would call "socialism" to me.

America, a country that has never experienced socialism in any form.

I see this happen a lot when someone is attempting to contradict the thoughtless parroting of the American ultra-conservative mantras about "socialism". You have gone WAAAAY too far toward the ultra-conservative position to try and explain.

America is HUGELY socialist in many, many ways. The bailouts of Wall Street, the airlines, and the car companies were all socialism. (note they paid no money back so it was not a loan. It was a socialist handout). The U.S. military is easily the largest socialist enterprise (by funding) in the word that is not itself a government. The huge amounts of tax money thrown at war contractors. My single mom, my sister and I desperately needed welfare when I was a kid. Thank goodness the U.S. had it. Then there is medicare. Eisenhower's top tax bracket was 91 percent. FDR gave us the HUGELY socialist New Deal. etc.

America might have more capitalism and voluntaryism (volunteer fire dept. and charity) than many other countries but in the grand scheme of things that just makes America less socialist and not at all not at all socialist. America is MASSIVELY socialist. But it is so very socialist in favor of the rich some prefer to call it a corporate oligarchy.

 

[SomeCallMeChris]

The bailouts of Wall Street, the airlines, and the car companies were all socialism. (note they paid no money back so it was not a loan. It was a socialist handout).

That would be astounding if true, but no. The bailouts were a mix of loans and asset purchases. Some of the loans have been repaid, some of the purchased assets have since been sold, some at a profit and some at a loss. (Most of the bailout initiatives have been sold or repaid as I understand it.) The average voter may not be very smart or completely understand the finances behind these kinds of moves, but I think there would be repercussions to the kind of action you describe. Well, it's not the first time I've heard this misconception either, a number of people do seem to think that's exactly what happened.

Troubled Asset Relief Program - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

My single mom, my sister and I desperately needed welfare when I was a kid. Thank goodness the U.S. had it. Then there is medicare. Eisenhower's top tax bracket was 91 percent. FDR gave us the HUGELY socialist New Deal. etc.

Well, there's essentially no cash welfare now. The majority of welfare money goes into various educational programs of one sort or another, but after Clinton's welfare reforms, the states are basically free to spend their share of the "welfare" budget however they want as long as it theoretically reduces unemployment (since married persons and college educated persons are less likely to be unemployed, that means scholarships and family counseling count... or even community events to encourage dating/matchmaking). There are still voucher programs for pregnant women and very young children, but they can only be spent on designated goods (food, medicine, infant formula). Food stamps still exist as well, although they are not easy to get.

You’d Be Surprised by How “Welfare” Money Is Spent in Some States

This article is part of the series “Welfare Reform: 20 Years Later,” a collaboration between Slate and Marketplace. You can listen to Marketplace’s pod ...

www.slate.com

Personally, given the campaign rhetoric being what it is, I find it ironic that the Democrats have presided over some of the strictest border tightening and the deepest gutting of social programs the country has seen.

 

[mdchachi]

SE Asian countries have relatively few cases

It's not at all clear if this is true or simply due to lack of testing. Laos had zero last I looked. Not possible.

 

[musicisgood]

Hey folks, can you keep the replies a bit short. LOL or at least break them up a bit. I'm running out of kneexes (sp)

 

[SmudgyBuddy]

Under reporting for the Olympics 'chance' perhaps? But other countries are under reporting, and under estimating. Like I said before, this infrastructure is not suitable for an outbreak pandemic such as this. Faith in humanity dwindling. We should evolve past currency at this point.

So it looks like the WHO, and UN have finally decided to denote it as a pandemic, instead of flip flopping like a Magickarp.

Well then ladies and gents, Japan coronavirus infections rise to 1,484 – NHK

You're gonna have to multiply the numbers by at least 5 or 6.

6 x 1484 = 8904

130,000,000 divided by 9000 cases =
So infection rate is 14.4%

 

[Lothor]

MoZ - Actually I agree with much of what you said, and it was interesting to hear about some of America's history, which I don't know much about, but do you have to be so abrasive about it? I mean,

"I see this happen a lot when someone is attempting to contradict the thoughtless parroting of the American ultra-conservative mantras about "socialism". You have gone WAAAAY too far toward the ultra-conservative position to try and explain."

You could have just said "Actually America in some ways is a lot more socialist than you think" then made your point rather then sounding like the argumentative guy in the bar. This isn't a point-scoring context. Once again, I'm bringing this up as a forum member, not a moderator

Going back to your point, I read that paean to capitalism Atlas Shrugged a few years ago, in which a socialist dystopia collapes, and it struck me when reading one of the scenes in which various captains of industry were clustering around the government like flies around **** hoping for favours that this is exactly how neoliberal Britain has become with outsourcing companies schmoozing government ministers and giant accounting companies getting to write tax laws in favour of their clients. And as you said, America is probably the same. Ayn Rand would be turning in her grave.

Anyway, let's get back to coronavirus. musicisgood has a point about these long posts.

 

[Lothor]

So back to coronavirus. I'm getting increasingly concerned with Japan's 'carry on as normal but wear a mask' attitude and am worried that it's going to bite them hard in a few weeks. Although it is nice to still have full supermarkets (I saw toilet rolls on sale at the weekend) and calm people, the idea of social distancing hasn't caught on at all. Perhaps it was irresponsible of me but last night I took my sons to play futsal. I was the only spectator in a mask and there was all manner of high-fives, backslapping, etc., going on among the players. And the Yamanote line was almost as busy as normal this morning - companies do not seem to be taking steps to reduce unnecessary commuting. If we end up with European style lockdowns and hundreds of deaths in a few weeks, I will not be surprised.

 

[Majestic]

You're gonna have to multiply the numbers by at least 5 or 6.

6 x 1484 = 8904

130,000,000 divided by 9000 cases =
So infection rate is 14.4%

I think you need to check your math.

 

[SmudgyBuddy]

I got this.

Total population 130,000,000
Infections : 9000

9000 infections
divided by
130,000,000 pop

= 0.0069

The infection rate is 0.007%

 

[Mark of Zorro]

That would be astounding if true, but no. The bailouts were a mix of loans and asset purchases. Some of the loans have been repaid, some of the purchased assets have since been sold, some at a profit and some at a loss. (Most of the bailout initiatives have been sold or repaid as I understand it.) The average voter may not be very smart or completely understand the finances behind these kinds of moves, but I think there would be repercussions to the kind of action you describe. Well, it's not the first time I've heard this misconception either, a number of people do seem to think that's exactly what happened.

Troubled Asset Relief Program - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

By focusing on TARP you have ignored about 20 times more more money lent by the Fed at near zero interest rates. Read the quotes by Sen. Warren in the middle of this. How Did the Taxpayer Make Out on the Wall Street Bailout?

Also the same article claims that through TARP alone, the taxpayers will never get back 53.1 billion. There is a lot of shady accounting going on and that is exactly what you can expect when the banksters get billions in loans each and don't have to change their shady practices to get it.

"In addition, according to SIGTARP, the $35.1 billion in write-offs and realized losses "do not include $18 billion in TARP funds spent on housing support programs, which are designed as a Government subsidy, with no repayments to taxpayers expected." If you add those two amounts together, that's $53.1 billion the taxpayer is never going to get back. "

So yes, you are correct that I was wrong to say "no" money was paid back. But the American people still got robbed.

But you neglected the point of all this: Is this socialism or no?

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I will also point out that due to the corona virus hysteria, corporate losses are mounting and MORE bailouts are going to be made. Is this socialism or capitalism?

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I was also wrong about the auto industry bailouts. Billions of the American tax payers money was used, but came back several billion short. Basically 81 billion became 70 billion. Complete shenanigans in any case. To get an idea how much was lost, imagine how nice it would be to have 1 million dollars. How many people can you make millionaires with 11 billion dollars? 11, 000 people!!!! That's a small city or large town of millionaires!

Capitalism or socialism?

GDP Growth & Recessions

An economy’s growth and recessions can be measured by gross domestic product (GDP). Learn why it’s a key economic indicator for the U.S. and other world economies.

www.thebalance.com

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Anyway, let's get back to coronavirus.

I wrote the above posts before reading that. I did not refresh while checking my facts.

but do you have to be so abrasive about it? I mean,

I am just being honest about it. That is exactly what is happening. I myself thoughtlessly parroted a mantra about companies not paying any of the bail outs back at all. Its a nasty effect of having been posting in Facebook echo chambers, where sometimes people are too nice. We are all guilty of this parrotting from time to time and being nice about never seemed like much of a cure to me....or even FOR me. If the truth is sandpaper I guess we all need to get used to abrasions.

 

[Lothor]

I wrote the above posts before reading that. I did not refresh while checking my facts.




I am just being honest about it. That is exactly what is happening. I myself thoughtlessly parroted a mantra about companies not paying any of the bail outs back at all. Its a nasty effect of having been posting in Facebook echo chambers, where sometimes people are too nice. We are all guilty of this parrotting from time to time and being nice about never seemed like much of a cure to me....or even FOR me. If the truth is sandpaper I guess we all need to get used to abrasions.

It's perfectly possible to give the truth without being abrasive. The abrasiveness doesn't add anything at all to the discussion and detracts from the points you are trying to make. In more extreme cases, people just don't bother giving a reply if they think they'll get barbs back - there are many other more rewarding things to do in the world than debate stuff on forums.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

It's perfectly possible to give the truth without being abrasive.

I will tell you now that I self edited 80 percent of the abrasiveness out of that post before I even hit the post button. Believe me, I WAS trying.

Its almost comical that I get called on THAT particular post. It truly is!

In hindsight, even I do think I could have done better though. Please understand I am trying! Sometimes VERY trying! LOL

But seriously, I am working on it.

 

[mdchachi]

Is this socialism or capitalism?

It doesn't seem to be socialism per the definition.

Socialism:
1: any of various economic and political theories advocating collective or governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods

2a : a system of society or group living in which there is no private property
b : a system or condition of society in which the means of production are owned and controlled by the state

3 : a stage of society in Marxist theory transitional between capitalism and communism and distinguished by unequal distribution of goods and pay according to work done

 

[Mark of Zorro]

It doesn't seem to be socialism per the definition.

For one, I asked the same question several times with various "it"s and you did not clarify what "it" you were talking about.

For two, such a fine point is not going to be clearly explained by a general definition in any case.

For three, you did not provide the definition of capitalism which would be equally general.

For four, some of the examples did include governmental ownership and administration.

For five, you did not choose which it was, though by default one might assume you chose capitalism.

 

[Lothor]

Could we get this thread back on topic please? okinawaholic - see what you've started!

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I keep thinking about the news from Italy...so many dead in such a short time. But I cannot choose between 1) the disease is far more deadly than I thought or 2) there is some particular issue in Italy and its not really Covid-19 that is directly the problem.

 

[Lothor]

I keep thinking about the news from Italy...so many dead in such a short time. But I cannot choose between 1) the disease is far more deadly than I thought or 2) there is some particular issue in Italy and its not really Covid-19 that is directly the problem.

So do you still stand by your original post on this thread that people are getting hysterical about 'just a cold virus'?