Sorry for resurrecting this thread, but I thought it would be interesting to get
@Toritoribe さん's thoughts on the matter, which is closely related (but different in an interesting way) to the examples above.
Anyhow, a user on Reddit cited brought up this sentence:
It's another example of this sort of usage of のに in Japanese where it could be replaced with から (and therefore seems, at a glance, as if のに has the opposite meaning of the usual "even though"/"despite", etc.)
It's different in the sense that you don't have a separate structure at the end like ~っこない or ~わけがない to negate the sentence but rather, simply a negative verb in itself. I believe one of my Japanese teachers, way, way back in the dark ages explained this very similarly to Toritoribe-san's explanation above, i.e. to think of it as 確かな根拠もないのに論文は書け(る) as being negated.
I'm just curious if that's also how Toritoribe-san would analyze this example.
(Anyhow, sorry for the semi-necropost, but I thought it might be appropriate in this case, and hopefully someone will find this example interesting/enlightening.)