COVID-19 Coronavirus: situation in Japan

[Mark of Zorro]

But that wasn't working out in case you haven't noticed.

How many times do I have to say that NOTHING people do is going to stop the spread of the virus?? Or that people may be able so SLOW the virus but not as much as spring (in places that actually have it) will and is?

What is your definition of "working out" with regards to Covid 19? Be clear.

 

[Majestic]

161 new cases of covid19 in Tokyo today. Waiting for other prefectures to come in. Typically Tokyo represents about 30% of the national total, so I expect there will be about 480 cases today.

Fridays usually have high numbers. Today's was the lowest number for a Friday in two weeks. But it feels like we are treading water.

 

[mdchachi]

I was going to go back and review your posts but quickly realized what a waste of time that was.

The numbers of detected new cases in Japan has been quite an up-down roller coaster even over mere days.

But my prediction is that the numbers will be in this range or more until 4/15 and then drop and sit at a low number for the remainder of spring and summer.

And lest anyone have a complete conniption I did say this was MY prediction. You can take it or leave it just don't freak out cause I have no power to actually do anything with it and neither does anyone here. And neither Abe nor Trump nor anyone with power is interested in a single thing any of us say. Okay?

How did it go? What do the trends tell you now?

In no way do I believe any of the government endorsed half measures have done anything good. The work of doctors and nurses however I do believe has had an effect but still I put spring first, especially with people still going to work and riding crowded trains and buses etc.

This is your primary stance. Government Action = BAD therefore opposite action=GOOD.

Well yeah if one thinks the underlying reasoning is political points and the statistics look like good leverage for a politician. I sure do. As I predicted and still predict, the government is going to claim credit for what spring did.

In four days we will see if I am right or wrong. In a few more days over that we will see if I was at least close.

What is your conclusion/lessons learned?

Well lets say not much good, and with cancelling school, a heck of a lot of bad. As I have often said, I would have approached this from the angle of isolating those most susceptible rather than everybody else. As I have also said, only spring is really going to slow this down.

Simply saying the same thing a bunch of times is not a very convincing argument.

You are dead wrong. Unnecessary BS accusations is what is making me angry.

If you get angry from my "accusations" then you have serious issues.

Straight up cause I have had it...is mdchachi suffering from altzheimers? Cause other than him intentionally being a douche, its the only other explanation I have for his disruptive rudeness.

I'm disruptively rude for not agreeing with your solution? You've posted it multiple times and I've disagreed with it multiple times.
I feel you haven't given enough evidence and you apparently feel you have. So what?

Explain to us how a lockdown you approve of works cause if my prior explanations are not enough for you, then you either 1) forgot what I even said before or 2) don't feel I answered with the type of detail you wanted. So explain what you want/expect/suggest in and for a lockdown, then I can know what you are looking for. What approach do you think will "work" in Japan? Then when I explain again and you forget again I will have a nice basis to show who is the actual problem here.

The reason for restricting activity is obvious -- to reduce transmission rates and to keep the health system needs within capacity. I'm not saying I think Japan is handling it well. Personally I think the South Korean or Taiwan model is the best. The reason why I don't have to explain it in detail is because these actions are essentially following the standard playbook.

http://www.nga.org/cms/home/nga-center-for-best-practices/center-publications/page-hsps-publications/col2-content/main-content-list/preparing-for-a-pandemic-influen.html

So when your thinking is contrary to best practices, it's incumbent on you to explain why your way is better. (Or not, it really doesn't matter. Neither of us have any say in what is going to happen beyond our own household.)

How many times do I have to say that NOTHING people do is going to stop the spread of the virus?? Or that people may be able to SLOW the virus but not as much as spring (in places that actually have it) will and is?

I'm hoping you don't say it any more because it's b.s. We already have plenty of evidence that the virus spread is being arrested in various countries that have taken action. Check the curves yourself.

What is your definition of "working out" with regards to Covid 19? Be clear.

In this context I was saying that Japan's low-key take-early-action-and-then-wait-and-see approach was not working (flattening the curve).
So I personally don't see how your go-about-your-business-unless-you-are-old-or-infirm-at-least-until-spring approach could possibly work to prevent deaths and an overwhelmed medical system. (Assuming that is your goal.) Note, I'm not saying what Japan is doing is the end all be all. I'm admitting that I don't really know. I'm hoping they are letting science guide them which would be an improvement over what parts of the U.S. is doing.

 

[Majestic]

update:
Total of 434 New cases of covid19 in Japan yesterday (April 23rd).
This feels like good news, because in addition to Tokyo having the lowest number for two weeks, the entire nation also had the lowest number for two weeks. Tokyo's share of the number of covid19 cases, seems to be getting bigger. I think this is, in a way, good news. It means fewer cases out in the provinces, fewer engines of pandemic. With 161 new cases in Tokyo yesterday, I think the lockdown (such that it is) is at least flattening the curve. Still treading water, and I doubt we can go back to normal on the 6th of May, but maybe we can allow ourselves to start thinking about when we can go back to a kind of normal. And, by extension, start thinking about what the new normal will look like. Maybe June?

 

[musicisgood]

update:
Total of 434 New cases of covid19 in Japan yesterday (April 23rd).
This feels like good news, because in addition to Tokyo having the lowest number for two weeks, the entire nation also had the lowest number for two weeks. Tokyo's share of the number of covid19 cases, seems to be getting bigger. I think this is, in a way, good news. It means fewer cases out in the provinces, fewer engines of pandemic. With 161 new cases in Tokyo yesterday, I think the lockdown (such that it is) is at least flattening the curve. Still treading water, and I doubt we can go back to normal on the 6th of May, but maybe we can allow ourselves to start thinking about when we can go back to a kind of normal. And, by extension, start thinking about what the new normal will look like. Maybe June?

My thinking is very basic and this is it: When school children are allowed to return to school, then I feel safe to say that the worst is over. What concerns me the most is the possibility of re-infections .

What's your thought on that?

I've been looking for info on re-infections and even went to Italian news outlets, but nothing yet.

 

[mdchachi]

update:
Total of 434 New cases of covid19 in Japan yesterday (April 23rd).
This feels like good news, because in addition to Tokyo having the lowest number for two weeks, the entire nation also had the lowest number for two weeks. Tokyo's share of the number of covid19 cases, seems to be getting bigger. I think this is, in a way, good news. It means fewer cases out in the provinces, fewer engines of pandemic. With 161 new cases in Tokyo yesterday, I think the lockdown (such that it is) is at least flattening the curve. Still treading water, and I doubt we can go back to normal on the 6th of May, but maybe we can allow ourselves to start thinking about when we can go back to a kind of normal. And, by extension, start thinking about what the new normal will look like. Maybe June?

Hope so. Hokkaido may have some lessons To learn from.

This Japanese island lifted its lockdown too soon and became a warning to the world — TIME

Hokkaido, Japan, locked down early and contained the outbreak. When the governor lifted restrictions, a second wave hit even harder

apple.news

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I was going to go back and review your posts but quickly realized what a waste of time that was.

Yet you wrote out that long post to me? Yet you think I will even read it? Why are you even still talking to me? Why are you even talking at all? What is your major malfunction? I tell you you are accusing me incorrectly, and you refuse to double check? What the actual...?

I did skim what you wrote and you did not even bother to explain what details about a lockdown are so important to you (edit: maybe you did....sort of) that you REPEATEDLY say I failed to explain...and you did not explain despite being asked directly and needing to do no review to know you were asked. Nor did you bother to retract your false accusations or apologize.

If you are not trolling intentionally then you are simply the biggest waste of pixels on this forum even before Johnny G. Your moderator badge needs revoked badly either way. What the HELL are you even trying to accomplish here? Clearly you have no desire to resolve anything.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I've been looking for info on re-infections and even went to Italian news outlets, but nothing yet.

I believe I said this before, but I think its a huge error to believe that reinfections of cold or flu virus are never possible. They are and they always have been, but are simply unlikely to show symptoms or much symptoms in people with properly functioning immune systems. So yeah, the old and the sick could literally get anything again, and get very sick with it again, whether Covid 19 or other. In this regard, Covid 19 is not special.

 

[Majestic]

What's your thought on that?

Its like landing an airplane on an aircraft carrier. There are so many variables. What I think is that we will figure out how to deal with reinfections. Wuhan, Italy, Spain, New York will give us some clue as to how to figure it out. Right now there is too little known, so its too early to say anything about reinfection. I'm not completely unafraid of it, but its too early to make any guesses based on the trickle of information coming in. But this trickle will turn into a firehose of info, and that will help us sort it out.

If reinfections are a problem, we will at least have this current experience to advise us how to deal with it. Hospitals and suppliers of PPE and governments will know how to prepare. Schools and businesses will hopefully know how to adapt. Airlines and airports will know how to react. So I think we will have effective strategies that will be able to minimize reinfections.

In the end, people figured out how to land on aircraft carriers, so I think we will figure out how to deal with this.

 

[mdchachi]

Nor did you bother to retract your false accusations or apologize.

Ok. I will retract my false accusations. All the false ones. You happy now?

 

[Mark of Zorro]

The reason for restricting activity is obvious -- to reduce transmission rates and to keep the health system needs within capacity. I'm not saying I think Japan is handling it well. Personally I think the South Korean or Taiwan model is the best. The reason why I don't have to explain it in detail is because these actions are essentially following the standard playbook.

NO dude. You literally HAVE to explain in the type of detail you expect others to give. You DON'T get to play dictator and demand others do as you say and not as you do.

Because you won't explain in detail but simply try and sit back and throw links at me, I do NOT understand what sort of response you expect from me.

1) Lockdowns of the old and infirm are a type of social distancing/restricting activity. Yes or no?

2) NO sensible lockdown will literally lockdown everyone so there will always be vectors of transmission. YES or NO?

3) WHAT EXACTLY do you approve of with the South Korean or Taiwan models that you feel is reducing transmission?

4) WHAT EXACTLY do you approve of with the South Korean or Taiwan models that you feel is keeping the health system within their capacity?

If you cannot be bothered with those 4 questions (3 are based on your own demands/ideas/approval) then drop it. If you choose to drop it, then clearly say you are dropping it and do so. If you wish to continue then answer the 4 questions and lets move forward. I don't care which you choose but just choose one.

 

[johnnyG]

This is the only forum I know of where someone has gone to such lengths to appease a troll--one who is arguing with a moderator, demanding things from them, and calling them names.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

This is the only forum I know of where someone has gone to such lengths to appease a troll--one who is arguing with a moderator, demanding things from them, and calling them names.

I only recognize this as being about me because I am arguing with a moderator. (We can't do that now?....cause moderators are all perfect??)

To actually think I am a troll is foolishness. To call me a troll while knowing otherwise is trollishness.

And meanwhile, your post is 100 percent off topic as is 50 percent usual for you.

We all know who is the better candidate for the label of troll. (Edit: Okay, maybe not. Looks like Lothor and Majestic lost the plot giving you a like. Guys, get it together. Really. ).

--------------------------------------------

Moving on, one more reporting day before I label my April 10 (post 26) prediction of the fall (drop) in new daily Covid 19 cases in Japan from April 15 correct, as I vowed on the 21st. Testing is 100 percent nowhere and not consistent either (Japan just expanded testing) so the numbers are never spot on, but according to my usual source April 23 saw 438 and April 24 saw 418. The fall is as steady as the rise (so far) and its easy to see.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I made a small boo boo above. The last two dates are wrong by one day. Japan's daily new cases are:

April 22 438
April 23 418
April 24 344
April 25 117 (so far)

 

[Majestic]

103 new cases in Tokyo yesterday. With 26 prefectures reporting, there were 368 new cases nationwide.
It feels like we are turning the corner. Now we enter the funky period where testing and reporting drop off for a couple of days.
Maybe its better to look at the numbers for the past 4 weeks to smooth out the numbers:

My fear is that with the good weather, and the tediousness of "stay at home", people will again crowd the train stations and izakaya, and we'll see a rebound. But for once I feel optimistic enough to say it looks like the worst is behind us.

 

[bentenmusume]

My fear is that with the good weather, and the tediousness of "stay at home", people will again crowd the train stations and izakaya, and we'll see a rebound. But for once I feel optimistic enough to say it looks like the worst is behind us.

To be fair, the state of emergency is in effect until at least May 6 (and according to most experts, will be extended for another week or so). The 7pm last order, 8pm closing rule for izakaya and restaurants is still in effect (most chains are closed entirely, and individually-run establishments have switched over to takeout-centric operation). Governor Koike in Tokyo has declared Golden Week to be "Stay Home Week", discouraged people from leaving Tokyo to visit their families or going shopping more than once every three days, etc., and literally almost all facilities in touristy areas outside greater Tokyo (Hakone, Enoshima, etc.) and even across the country are shut down entirely.

I'm not saying any or all of these measures are foolproof, but personally I don't see a reason to fear huge crowds on a massive scale over Golden Week. I realize it's not an official "lockdown" like many countries in the West have done, but the Japanese businesses and general populace has been (overall, not everybody) pretty good about following the guidelines established ever since the state of emergency was declared, so if this has been successful so far, I'm reluctant to believe it's all going to suddenly fall apart because of some good weather.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

the Japanese businesses and general populace has been (overall, not everybody) pretty good about following the guidelines established ever since the state of emergency was declared

These folks definitely are not Americans.

The 7pm last order, 8pm closing rule for izakaya and restaurants

You said it right when you said "guideline". Calling it a rule is saying too much. I might seem nitpicky but when we give up our rights even just in our speech, they tend to disappear because people forget they have them. So I am very careful about calling something a rule that isn't. As soon as people believe its a rule, it is only a matter of a short time before it is.

After all, we already have armed Japanese police harassing people with their "suggestions" to go home. All they are are yakuza with uniforms. We have to be on guard or we are all prisoners.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Daily new cases have changed. Update:

April 22 438
April 23 418
April 24 344
April 25 519 (and I believe this is final)

That's been ten days since I said I would wait ten days to declare my prediction correct, and despite the apparent rise, it is tiny considering expanding testing and the REAL numbers were clearly more all along anyway. And no one seems to want to even say "Wow" so I will do something I never do and pat my own back. None of you have ever seen a prediction so accurate among so much uncertainty and you probably never will again, not even from me. So many claimed it was just going to keep steam rolling us. Nope. I was right. I nailed it as much as anyone ever nailed a prediction like that. From precisely the 15th numbers fell. PRECISELY.

I never say this either, but I told you so. For once, I shall gloat. Being humble never seemed to do much for me anyway. Maybe I will make a habit of it. The world seems to love gloating liars anyway more than Mr. Honest Humble anyway. I should emulate Chris Kyle I guess. Enjoy the new me everyone! I freaking rock! (victory dance)(spikes football)(drops mic).

(wink)

 

[Majestic]

72 new cases in Tokyo yesterday. And 210 new cases nationwide. Very encouraging news (even though we know Sundays trend lower).
Feels like we've turned the corner.

One caveat is the very low number of tests performed. Fewer than 500 tests performed daily in Tokyo lately. Only about 10000 tests cumulatively for Tokyo, which blows my mind.

新型コロナ保健医療情報ポータル　東京都保健医療局

 

[musicisgood]

72 new cases in Tokyo yesterday. And 210 new cases nationwide. Very encouraging news (even though we know Sundays trend lower).
Feels like we've turned the corner.

One caveat is the very low number of tests performed. Fewer than 500 tests performed daily in Tokyo lately. Only about 10000 tests cumulatively for Tokyo, which blows my mind.

新型コロナ保健医療情報ポータル　東京都保健医療局

although figures sound great, it's probably lead by the GW travels that it is fine to travel, but aren't most places closed down these days.
was out yesterday and people were shopping in herds, something is going on behind the scenes
have any idea what it may be?

always appreciate your updates
keep them coming

 

[Majestic]

1. Lower number of tests.
2. Fewer "clusters" reported in Tokyo. Group infections at nursing homes and hospitals were driving some numbers higher.
2. "Stay at home" recommendations starting to show results.

No idea what the golden week effect will be. In my work, Golden Week doesn't really start until May 2nd, but I keep hearing references on TV and radio saying how Golden Week has already started and that we're not seeing any increase in travel. In fact, the opposite: I've seen reports of completely empty Shinkansen trains. Anyway, I think this week there won't be a heck of a lot of activity since there are quite a few normal workdays this week.

If we can get down to fewer than 200 cases consistently nationwide, that will be a very good achievement.

 

[mdchachi]

Tokyo Coronavirus Tracker

A dashboard to visualize the trends of the COVID-19 outbreak in Tokyo

covid19tokyo.live

This website was created by three college students to better visualize and understand the trends of the COVID-19 outbreak in Tokyo, Japan.

The -ku I used to live in is the hardest hit by total numbers. Maybe not on a per capita basis. I can't tell.

 

[bentenmusume]

Interesting site. That's the first time I've actually seen a breakdown in numbers among the different municipalities within Tokyo.

The -ku I used to live in is the hardest hit by total numbers. Maybe not on a per capita basis. I can't tell.

I'm assuming you're referring to Setagaya? Knowing that Setagaya is the most populous ward, I eyeballed it and did a few calculations, and it would seem that it probably is the hardest hit per capita, though not by a particularly huge margin.

Setagaya-ku: 939,099 / 349 = 1 per 2,690
Nerima-ku: 742,652 / 157 = 1 per 4,730
Suginami-ku: 585,470 / 173 = 1 per 3,384
Ota-ku: 739,575 / 140 = 1 per 5,283

One thing that kind of surprises me about the map is the huge drop-off once you get outside the 23 wards. I live in the Mitaka/Kichijoji area, the latter of which especially has regularly been taking flack on the news for a relatively steady stream of people in the shopping arcades even since the state of emergency was declared. Yet according to these figures, we're looking at:

Mitaka-shi + Musashino-shi: 340,868 (192,518 + 148,350) / 40 (25 + 15) = 1 per 8,521
(I combined the two cities since they essentially bleed into each other, straddling the JR Chuo Line, and even together have a combined land area considerably smaller than any of the wards above.)

Going out further west (past Hachioji and Tachikawa), you get the rural outskirts of Tokyo, which is another story, but the general population density and composition of Mitaka-shi/Musashino-shi isn't really all that different from neighboring Suginami-ku/Setagaya-ku/Nerima-ku, so I can't help but wonder if the disparity is due to heavier testing within the 23 wards, or what.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I can't help but wonder if the disparity is due to heavier testing within the 23 wards, or what.

Less crowding, more sunlight, more fresh air (thanks to more vegetation) and more people outside in it perhaps? City life....its a term most Japanese pronounce correctly (snicker).

 

[bentenmusume]

I addressed this in my post.

I'm not sure how familiar you are with this part of Tokyo, but Kichijoji/Mitaka is essentially indistinguishable from Suginami/Setagaya in terms of streetscape, lifestyle, etc. Both have their fair share of bustling stations and shopping arcades (as I mentioned, Kichijoji in particular was taking huge flack for its main drag, Star Road, being packed even after the state of emegency) as well as parks, greenery, etc.

I literally lived on the exact border of Mitaka-shi and Suginami-ku once.
Believe me, it's not like Tokyo instantly transforms from a suffocating, dreary urban concrete jungle to a beautiful green paradise the second you step outside the 23 wards.