[V-stem]+そう for intransitive verbs

pacerier

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As for intransitive verbs that describes a change of state such as 倒れる, 落ちる, 死ぬ, if we combine their stem with そう (倒れそう) does it mean "It is about to fall, based on what i know" or "it is about to fall, based on what i can see, feel, taste, etc" ?

If now the tree is nowhere near me (so i couldn't possibly say "based on what i see the tree is about to fall"), can i say あの木が倒れそうだ to mean "hey you know that tree (that we both know) is about to fall"

Conversely, if its an intransitive verb that does not describe a change of state such as 歩く, 晴れる, 勝つ, is it true to say that 歩きそうだ can only mean "it looks like its walking, based on what i see, feel, taste, etc" and cannot mean "it looks like its walking, based on what i know" ?

So if now I'm nowhere near Bob, and Bob is about to win some game / torunament, is it true to say that i cannot say ボブは勝ちそうだ?

(sorry if its abit unclear)
 
As for intransitive verbs that describes a change of state such as 倒れる, 落ちる, 死ぬ, if we combine their stem with そう (倒れそう) does it mean "It is about to fall, based on what i know" or "it is about to fall, based on what i can see, feel, taste, etc" ?

If now the tree is nowhere near me (so i couldn't possibly say "based on what i see the tree is about to fall"), can i say あの木が倒れそうだ to mean "hey you know that tree (that we both know) is about to fall"
It depends how close are you talking about. Does it appear ready to topple at any moment ? Or still straight but leaning far enough to appear to be just on the point of collapse ? If it is a situation of immediate shift or immanent change, similar to English you wouldn't normally say "about to" without knowing anything that has already happened.
 
in other words, if i had done some research and came to the conclusion that the tree is going to fall in 5 minutes, can i say あの木が倒れそうだ to mean "the tree is about to fall (based on my research and not based on my sight)"? (let's say i'm in america and the person whom i am talking to right now (through the phone) is in japan, and the tree that we are both talking about is in japan too)
 
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