Politics Japan's Upper House election 2025: hot-button issue immigration and foreign residents

Sanseitō and other parties are competing to propose restrictions on the inflow of foreign workers and control the foreign population already settled in Japan, as Japan's foreign population has become an issue in this campaign. Mainichi suggests that these parties are competing for the votes of conservatives disaffected with the post-Abe LDP, which, having pushed for more foreign workers, is constrained in proposing restrictionist measures. That said, Prime Minister Ishiba announced on Tuesday, 8 July, that his government would set up an office in the cabinet secretariat focused on "orderly co-existence" with foreign residents, consistent with the LDP's manifesto. Meanwhile, in a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan, Sanseitō leader Kamiya, not surprisingly, stated that he has affinities for France's Rassemblement National, Germany's AfD, Britain's Reform UK, and the Republican Party in the US. Amidst this shift, a group of NGOs stated on Tuesday, pushing back against anti-foreign sentiment.

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The new specified skills visa is expected to lead to a further surge in foreign residents living in Japan to help fill labor shortages in various industries. But several problems have already arisen, including traffic accidents and crimes caused by non-Japanese nationals. And some politicians have warned about the loss of Japanese culture in areas with large foreign communities. The central government on 8 July said it will establish an organization in the Cabinet Secretariat early next week to strengthen its response to problems caused by foreign residents.

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Murai reportedly stated that Japan, as an advanced nation, should accept the presence of foreign nationals in today's globalised world. His remarks came in the context of the upcoming Upper House election scheduled for 20 July, in which certain political parties have proposed stricter controls on foreign residents and tighter immigration policies. Murai is said to have pointed out that many Japanese themselves pursue opportunities abroad, making it inconsistent for Japan to close its doors to foreigners. He also referred to Miyagi Prefecture's proactive stance on welcoming foreign workers, noting outreach initiatives aimed at youth in Indonesia. Addressing concerns that foreigners might take jobs from local workers, Murai reportedly explained that Japan faces a severe labour shortage. In specific sectors, where ten workers are required, only seven or eight Japanese are available, prompting the need for foreign labour to fill the gap. Murai also noted that criminal acts are not limited to non-Japanese, and measures to safeguard public safety should be applied broadly rather than targeting foreign nationals alone.

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Public welfare is provided once a month in principle, and the number of recipient households (definitive figure) released annually by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare is based on the monthly average. According to the ministry, 1,650,478 households nationwide received public assistance in fiscal 2023 (with the figure being the monthly average between April 2023 and March 2024), of which 47,317 households were headed by foreigners. This indicates that foreigners account for roughly 2.9% of all households on welfare, well below the "one-third" as claimed by those false posts online. The corresponding figure for fiscal 2022 similarly stood at around 2.9%. Regardless, the posts that went viral compared the monthly number of approximately 1.65 million households on welfare against the 12-month total of roughly 560,000 foreign households on welfare, erroneously calculating that the latter accounted for more than 30% of the total.

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In this year's upper house elections, Japan's conservative parties are locked in a competition that feels eerily familiar to anyone who's watched American politics over the past decade. Each party seems determined to outdo the others in channeling Donald Trump's brand of populist, xenophobic rhetoric. The dog whistles have become foghorns; some candidates are skipping the coded language and saying the quiet part out loud. With foreigners making up less than 3% of Japan's population, the catchy phrase "Japanese First" has turned this tiny minority into a convenient scapegoat for the country's persistent social and economic woes.

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NHK Party leader Takashi Tachibana dispenses with any pretense, declaring, "I will continue to be racist because I'm scared," and openly expressing fear of black and Muslim people. These are not fringe voices—they are party leaders, and their words are being broadcast to millions. Tachibana is the most slavish sycophant of Trumpism. He has a political party declaring that he is "the Japanese Trump."

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At a ceremony to mark the office's launch, Ishiba cited the need to address issues such as proper immigration control, unpaid social security premiums and the acquisition of land by foreigners. However, the government faces a delicate balancing act in considering more stringent regulations while ensuring it does not open itself up to allegations of discrimination. Ishiba said Japan sees the inflow of foreign nationals as a key driver of economic growth. But he said, "It's important for us to take stricter responses to those who do not follow our rules and rework the existing system if it does not match the reality." The new office will share information on issues related to foreign residents in Japan and coordinate responses among relevant offices such as the Immigration Services Agency, the Finance Ministry and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

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The previous record for early voters was 21,379,977 in the 2017 election for the Lower House. The record high for an Upper House election was 19,613,475 in 2022.

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According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, foreigners made up 4% of national health insurance policyholders in 2023, a 1.4 percentage point increase over the past decade. However, medical expenses paid to foreigners accounted for only 1.39% of the total between March 2023 and February 2024. A ministry official noted, "Generally, older people visit doctors. Foreign residents, many of whom are young, don't use medical services as much as Japanese people." Some foreigners with permanent or long-term residency receive assistance equivalent to welfare for Japanese. In 2023, approximately 46,000 foreign households received this livelihood protection, accounting for 2.8% of the total. This number has only increased by about 1,000 households over the past decade, despite a 65% increase in the foreign population during the same period.

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However, among those cracked down on for violations of the Penal Code and special laws by Saitama Prefectural Police, 1,116 were foreigners in 2019, making up 7.9% of the total, compared with 1,127 in 2024, accounting for 8.8%. While the percentage increased by 0.9 points, the number of those apprehended remained nearly flat. During these five years, the foreign population in the prefecture increased by 27%, yet the number of recognized Penal Code offenses has decreased since 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, it's hard to say that public safety has significantly worsened due to foreigners.

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Although Ishiba is facing growing calls from within his Liberal Democratic Party to step down to take responsibility for Sunday's election drubbing, respondents of the survey were divided on the issue, with 51.6% demanding his resignation and 45.8% thinking otherwise. On policies regarding foreigners, which took center stage in election campaigning amid a growing number of workers and tourists from overseas, 65.6% backed stricter regulations on issues such as immigration control and real estate acquisition, while 26.7% did not want any changes, and 4.4% called for easing the regulations.

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In the most recent analysis, responses from 1,961 individuals who indicated their voting preference in the proportional representation segment just before the Upper House election on 18 July were examined. When asked to place themselves on a political spectrum from 0 (left) to 10 (right), supporters of Sanseito recorded an average score of 6.1. This put them further to the right than backers of most major parties, though not as far as the average 7.0 score of Conservative Party of Japan supporters. Their positioning, however, was very close to the average support of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, at 6.2. Nevertheless, Sanseito supporters demonstrated a notable level of scepticism towards the government. On a trust scale ranging from 1 ("do not trust the government at all") to 5 ("completely trust the government"), their average response was just 2.1. This figure was lower than that of LDP supporters, who averaged 3.0, and also fell below the 2.6 average of Komeito supporters. It was also below the average trust levels among opposition party voters, including the 2.4 average for those aligned with Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) and the 2.3 average of those supporting the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

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...but an analysis of voter trends in both parties in the months leading up to the election indicates a significant shift by those who previously voted for the DPP to Sanseito this time. Thirteen proved to be the lucky number for both parties. The DPP went into the election contesting four seats and finishing with 17, for a total of 22 Upper House seats, including five seats not up for election. Sanseito, a populist right-wing party, increased its Upper House total from one to 14 seats. A survey conducted between February and July by the Asahi Shimbun and Asako Miura, a University of Osaka professor who has written about how psychological behavior on social media toward news spreads, showed that while the DPP increased its seat total, it lost support over the six month period as Sanseito gained more backing.

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