Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba to step down

thomas said:

It will boil down to Takaichi vs Koizumi. What's mind-boggling is that this is happening as Ishiba's approval ratings were surging.

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From this perspective, Koizumi Shinjirō likely enters the leadership campaign as the presumptive favorite. He enters the race not only with the support of former prime minister Suga Yoshihide and his reformist bloc, but he may also be poised to draw the backing of former prime minister Kishida Fumio and may even be making a pitch to Asō Tarō that he is best able to unify the party, rally public support, and stabilize the government. If he can line up the three major kingmakers behind him as well as the party's younger lawmakers and also improve on his disappointing performance with the party's rank-and-file supporters, Koizumi will be difficult to beat. It also does not hurt that he may have a stronger pitch to make to Ishin no Kai as a coalition partner.

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Takaichi Sanae, the runner-up from 2024, seems like a formidable candidate but her position may be weaker than meets the eye. First, her base in the party has been disproportionately impacted by the LDP's defeats in the 2024 general and 2025 upper house elections, as suggested by the fact that nine of her twenty endorsers in last year's leadership election have left office. Meanwhile, it is unclear whether Takaichi will be able to land Asō's support again. While she may address one of the LDP's needs – appealing to former LDP supporters dissatisfied with the post-Abe direction of the party – she may be a liability in other ways, since she is distrusted by the more moderate and reformist parts of the party (Kishida reportedly called her "Taliban Takaichi" last year) and may do little to appeal to independents. Finally, she may not even be able to unify the LDP right behind her candidacy, as Kobayashi Takayuki, the conservative "generational change" candidate, has given no indication that he is going to step out of the way for Takaichi.

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The other plausible contenders – for example, Hayashi Yoshimasa, Motegi Toshimitsu, or Katō Katsunobu – may have the policymaking credentials but have liabilities that would do little to resolve the LDP's political crisis. All three are older and have lower public profiles and followings. Hayashi would be running in the same lane as Koizumi and is also disliked by the right wing; Motegi has always struggled to make friends with his colleagues (including members of his former faction); and while Katō has good relationships across the party, his public standing is muted, and he will turn seventy in November.

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Agriculture Minister Koizumi and former Economic Security Minister Takaichi tied as the top choices to succeed Prime Minister Ishiba in a JNN poll, with Ishiba himself ranking third. Support for the Ishiba Cabinet rose to 37.7% in September, while 41% of respondents said he should resign after the Upper House election defeat and 49% said he should not.

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