Society Forty per cent of Japanese municipalities at risk of vanishing

The population strategy council consisting of various experts on April 24 released the results of its analysis of future population trends based on a study by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. The council defined the at-risk municipalities as those where the percentage of women between 20 and 39 is expected to drop by more than 50 per cent between 2020 and 2050. The thinking was that such a decrease would lead to a sharp decline in births, causing an unstoppable shrinking and eventual disappearance of the municipality. The council said 744 of Japan's 1,729 municipalities fall into that category. The first study of at-risk municipalities was made in 2014 by a different organization that used different conditions, time spans and covered areas. That study found about half of Japan's municipalities were at risk of disappearing. The latest study showed that 239 municipalities named in the 2014 report were no longer at risk of disappearing. However, 99 new municipalities were found at risk in the latest study. One reason is that municipalities in Fukushima Prefecture were not covered in the 2014 study.

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