But that wasn't working out in case you haven't noticed.
How did it go? What do the trends tell you now?The numbers of detected new cases in Japan has been quite an up-down roller coaster even over mere days.
But my prediction is that the numbers will be in this range or more until 4/15 and then drop and sit at a low number for the remainder of spring and summer.
And lest anyone have a complete conniption I did say this was MY prediction. You can take it or leave it just don't freak out cause I have no power to actually do anything with it and neither does anyone here. And neither Abe nor Trump nor anyone with power is interested in a single thing any of us say. Okay?
This is your primary stance. Government Action = BAD therefore opposite action=GOOD.In no way do I believe any of the government endorsed half measures have done anything good. The work of doctors and nurses however I do believe has had an effect but still I put spring first, especially with people still going to work and riding crowded trains and buses etc.
What is your conclusion/lessons learned?Well yeah if one thinks the underlying reasoning is political points and the statistics look like good leverage for a politician. I sure do. As I predicted and still predict, the government is going to claim credit for what spring did.
In four days we will see if I am right or wrong. In a few more days over that we will see if I was at least close.
Simply saying the same thing a bunch of times is not a very convincing argument.Well lets say not much good, and with cancelling school, a heck of a lot of bad. As I have often said, I would have approached this from the angle of isolating those most susceptible rather than everybody else. As I have also said, only spring is really going to slow this down.
If you get angry from my "accusations" then you have serious issues.You are dead wrong. Unnecessary BS accusations is what is making me angry.
I'm disruptively rude for not agreeing with your solution? You've posted it multiple times and I've disagreed with it multiple times.Straight up cause I have had it...is mdchachi suffering from altzheimers? Cause other than him intentionally being a douche, its the only other explanation I have for his disruptive rudeness.
The reason for restricting activity is obvious -- to reduce transmission rates and to keep the health system needs within capacity. I'm not saying I think Japan is handling it well. Personally I think the South Korean or Taiwan model is the best. The reason why I don't have to explain it in detail is because these actions are essentially following the standard playbook.Explain to us how a lockdown you approve of works cause if my prior explanations are not enough for you, then you either 1) forgot what I even said before or 2) don't feel I answered with the type of detail you wanted. So explain what you want/expect/suggest in and for a lockdown, then I can know what you are looking for. What approach do you think will "work" in Japan? Then when I explain again and you forget again I will have a nice basis to show who is the actual problem here.
I'm hoping you don't say it any more because it's b.s. We already have plenty of evidence that the virus spread is being arrested in various countries that have taken action. Check the curves yourself.How many times do I have to say that NOTHING people do is going to stop the spread of the virus?? Or that people may be able to SLOW the virus but not as much as spring (in places that actually have it) will and is?
In this context I was saying that Japan's low-key take-early-action-and-then-wait-and-see approach was not working (flattening the curve).What is your definition of "working out" with regards to Covid 19? Be clear.
update:
Total of 434 New cases of covid19 in Japan yesterday (April 23rd).
This feels like good news, because in addition to Tokyo having the lowest number for two weeks, the entire nation also had the lowest number for two weeks. Tokyo's share of the number of covid19 cases, seems to be getting bigger. I think this is, in a way, good news. It means fewer cases out in the provinces, fewer engines of pandemic. With 161 new cases in Tokyo yesterday, I think the lockdown (such that it is) is at least flattening the curve. Still treading water, and I doubt we can go back to normal on the 6th of May, but maybe we can allow ourselves to start thinking about when we can go back to a kind of normal. And, by extension, start thinking about what the new normal will look like. Maybe June?
Hope so. Hokkaido may have some lessons To learn from.update:
Total of 434 New cases of covid19 in Japan yesterday (April 23rd).
This feels like good news, because in addition to Tokyo having the lowest number for two weeks, the entire nation also had the lowest number for two weeks. Tokyo's share of the number of covid19 cases, seems to be getting bigger. I think this is, in a way, good news. It means fewer cases out in the provinces, fewer engines of pandemic. With 161 new cases in Tokyo yesterday, I think the lockdown (such that it is) is at least flattening the curve. Still treading water, and I doubt we can go back to normal on the 6th of May, but maybe we can allow ourselves to start thinking about when we can go back to a kind of normal. And, by extension, start thinking about what the new normal will look like. Maybe June?
I was going to go back and review your posts but quickly realized what a waste of time that was.
I've been looking for info on re-infections and even went to Italian news outlets, but nothing yet.
Its like landing an airplane on an aircraft carrier. There are so many variables. What I think is that we will figure out how to deal with reinfections. Wuhan, Italy, Spain, New York will give us some clue as to how to figure it out. Right now there is too little known, so its too early to say anything about reinfection. I'm not completely unafraid of it, but its too early to make any guesses based on the trickle of information coming in. But this trickle will turn into a firehose of info, and that will help us sort it out.What's your thought on that?
Ok. I will retract my false accusations. All the false ones. You happy now?Nor did you bother to retract your false accusations or apologize.
The reason for restricting activity is obvious -- to reduce transmission rates and to keep the health system needs within capacity. I'm not saying I think Japan is handling it well. Personally I think the South Korean or Taiwan model is the best. The reason why I don't have to explain it in detail is because these actions are essentially following the standard playbook.
This is the only forum I know of where someone has gone to such lengths to appease a troll--one who is arguing with a moderator, demanding things from them, and calling them names.
To be fair, the state of emergency is in effect until at least May 6 (and according to most experts, will be extended for another week or so). The 7pm last order, 8pm closing rule for izakaya and restaurants is still in effect (most chains are closed entirely, and individually-run establishments have switched over to takeout-centric operation). Governor Koike in Tokyo has declared Golden Week to be "Stay Home Week", discouraged people from leaving Tokyo to visit their families or going shopping more than once every three days, etc., and literally almost all facilities in touristy areas outside greater Tokyo (Hakone, Enoshima, etc.) and even across the country are shut down entirely.Majestic said:My fear is that with the good weather, and the tediousness of "stay at home", people will again crowd the train stations and izakaya, and we'll see a rebound. But for once I feel optimistic enough to say it looks like the worst is behind us.
the Japanese businesses and general populace has been (overall, not everybody) pretty good about following the guidelines established ever since the state of emergency was declared
The 7pm last order, 8pm closing rule for izakaya and restaurants
72 new cases in Tokyo yesterday. And 210 new cases nationwide. Very encouraging news (even though we know Sundays trend lower).
Feels like we've turned the corner.
One caveat is the very low number of tests performed. Fewer than 500 tests performed daily in Tokyo lately. Only about 10000 tests cumulatively for Tokyo, which blows my mind.
I'm assuming you're referring to Setagaya? Knowing that Setagaya is the most populous ward, I eyeballed it and did a few calculations, and it would seem that it probably is the hardest hit per capita, though not by a particularly huge margin.mdchachi said:The -ku I used to live in is the hardest hit by total numbers. Maybe not on a per capita basis. I can't tell.
I can't help but wonder if the disparity is due to heavier testing within the 23 wards, or what.