COVID-19 Coronavirus: general discussion

[SmudgyBuddy]

We can debate the temperature of the Earth all we want (For anybody wondering, I believe that the temperature is on a cycle, it gets hotter as civilizations peak, it gets colder as civilizations crumble it has been apparent since the Phoenician age), it doesn't change the fact that there is an actual pandemic happening at the moment.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I think it's a rather dangerous trend to start dismissing the work of experts by claiming "they would say that, just look at human nature". That's exactly one of the arguments used by global-warming deniers, and has led to the rise of leaders such as Trump and Johnson who are completely out of their depth when it comes to understanding the complexity of issues. Indeed, why bother training and employing experts at all if we're going to dismiss them out of hand for having vested interests when they come to a different conclusion to a layperson?

And I think its dangerous to tell people what experts say without quoting them. Quote one please. Then answer the questions: Is there general agreement among experts? And: Does WHO represent them?

 

[Mark of Zorro]

claiming "they would say that, just look at human nature". That's exactly one of the arguments used by global-warming deniers, and has led to the rise of leaders such as Trump and Johnson

This deserves a quote of its own. I never heard that angle from a climate change denier...except maybe one that claimed there was money to be made in it. However I think when I asked "How? I got a really weak response.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

it doesn't change the fact that there is an actual pandemic happening at the moment.

Please define pandemic and please identify some other recent pandemic for an example. Also, should every pandemic have the same responses? And was shutting down Wuhan an appropriate response? Was locking people up on the Diamond Princess? Was either recommended by an expert or two? What are their names?

Also, does this "pandemic" justify a media blitz constantly harping on where it spread next and how many died while barely or not even educating people about how to protect themselves? Or how it compares with the seasonal flu and colds or other disease "pandemics"?

 

[Lothor]

And I think its dangerous to tell people what experts say without quoting them. Quote one please. Then answer the questions: Is there general agreement among experts? And: Does WHO represent them?

I don't know the answer to either question but I have never claimed to have expertise in the spread of viruses. I'm taking issue with a simplistic dismissal of the views of experts you disagree with because you may think there may be some vested interest - and I have seen that dismissal of global warming, 'scientists just want to safeguard their jobs,' many times (my mother is unlucky enough to have some Christian fundamentalist friends on Facebook). Your argument doesn't seem to be any different.

In short, if the WHO and other health experts reckon that the coronavirus is a very serious threat and a bloke on a forum about Japan who as far as I understand has no medical qualifications thinks that it's just scaremongering about a new form of cold, then I am going to believe the former. Either we give due weight to the views of people who have studied medicine for decades or we get rid of the WHO and other academic organisations and get our advice from the guy down the pub.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I don't know the answer to either question

Then there simply is not anything worth debating.

I'm taking issue with a simplistic dismissal of the views of experts you disagree with

Simplistic?? How long is this thread and who has posted the most here and even posted links? Or agreed with links in opposition? You can't just divorce any single post of mine here from all the rest! Okay, well I guess you can. Its your reputation you play with.

Not even a single quote from a single expert. I am damn disappointed. See I think you might have journalists and politicians confused with medical and scientific experts. That was one point I was thinking you might need a reality check on. But since you provide no quotes...well, I guess its even more evident, isn't it?

 

[Mark of Zorro]

A statement from WHO from Jan. 25.

WHO/Europe | Home

The WHO Regional Office for Europe (WHO/Europe) is one of WHO’s six regional offices around the world. It serves the WHO European Region, which comprises 53 countries, covering a vast geographical region from the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans.

www.euro.who.int

Anyone else think its a bit much?

"The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in China is a sign that every country needs to be ready to timely detect and manage outbreaks of any type."

Jesus! How have we survived this long without WHO?? Literally every contagious disease better be detected and dealt with or we are all DEAD MEAT. No wonder measles went from the stuff of sit coms to mass panic.

Make up your own mind about this video. I think the show was too easy about the measles yes, but the point was to dispel panic in kids. Yes the lady doctor says "may be" fatal. Sure. A car ride "may be" fatal too. Should we tell kids to panic every car ride?

 

[SmudgyBuddy]

I see, a pandemic is a disease that happens to spread across a large area, and even internationally.
Your questions are truly relevant. I for one do not believe that our societal infrastructure is equipped to withstand such a viral spread. It is ill-equipped.
The truth is, many people rely on being outside of the house to support themselves, and their families financially in the way of buying foods, utilities, and paying off material things. The bear necessities that we have cannot sustained without money.
You leave the house to work, you conglomerate into one area, and the virus spreads, and shape shifts until it claims the lives of many.
This is why our world would be a better place if we abolished money, and worked together in harmony to help the other.
If we did this, everybody would stay at home with their families, and the virus wouldn't spread.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I see, a pandemic is a disease that happens to spread across a large area, and even internationally.

So any old cold is automatically a pandemic? HPV is a pandemic?

Basically you used the same definition as Wikipedia, minus a few qualifiers, but Wiki says the only current pandemic is AIDS and the most recently ended pandemic was H1N1. Are they just slow to update?

"A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν pan "all" and δῆμος demos "people") is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region; for instance multiple continents, or worldwide. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic. Further, flu pandemics generally exclude recurrences of seasonal flu.

The only current pandemic is HIV/AIDS, which started in the 1980s. Other recent pandemics are the 1918 influenza pandemic (Spanish flu) and the 2009 flu pandemic (H1N1)."

Pandemic - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The talk page show widespread disagreement/ confusion/ supposition though as to what exactly is meant and what should be included. I guess that, like virulent, this word seems rather unclear and is therefore useless to speak factually so its another I will strike from my personal vocabulary. It does seem the word is great for spreading panic though.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

This is why our world would be a better place if we abolished money, and worked together in harmony to help the other.

Money is like a fence...it tends to keep your neighbors honest. Why do we have money? Because every family has a POS in it who will lie and cheat and steal until they have everything, and everyone else has nothing. Of course that is still happening but at a slower rate, thanks to money. Of course you can say that money was made because barter was a pain in the butt. That's true, but the deeper truth is it was just a lot easier for a POS to cheat people in a barter system.

Giving up money would pretty much end international trade. Are you talking about going to back to being like uncontacted tribes in the Amazon? Their immune systems are not so great and so they have basically survived through isolation. You think that is the way to go to avoid spread of something like this?

 

[SomeCallMeChris]

Wiki says the only current pandemic is AIDS and the most recently ended pandemic was H1N1. Are they just slow to update?

The wiki also notes,

In February 2020, WHO spokesperson Tarik Jasarevic clarified that, "there is no official category (for a pandemic)... For the sake of clarification, WHO does not use the old system of 6 phases — that ranged from phase 1 (no reports of animal influenza causing human infections) to phase 6 (a pandemic) — that some people may be familiar with from H1N1 in 2009."

At this time at least, "pandemic" is a lay term and not an official term, and it simply means, more or less, "a world-wide epidemic."

COVID-19 is at 4 out of 4 on the WHO's current scale that doesn't use the word "pandemic", that has replaced the 6-step pandemic scale. As such, it doesn't seem unreasonable to call the current outbreak a pandemic, although reasonable people could disagree about whether we would be at stage 5 or stage 6 of the old scale.

Normal colds aren't considered "pandemic" simply because one is so similar to the next that they are considered "endemic", as your quote suggests. If you tracked each individual cold virus I'm sure many of them would be pandemics, but because they are grouped together as one disease, that's not how they are counted. HPV also is of course "endemic" and so disqualified from "pandemic".

I'm not sure HIV can be considered "pandemic" anymore but maybe there are still large parts of the world where it is still spreading. It seems to me it's closer to the definition of "endemic".

Are they just slow to update?

They had included COVID-19 as a pandemic, but it was reverted with this reason given, "The World Health Organization has yet to classify coronavirus as a pandemic. Until they do so, it remains a possible pandemic. "

Pandemic: Revision history - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Of course, as had already been stated and recorded in the wiki article, WHO doesn't use the term "pandemic" anymore, so this reasoning is dubious. At any rate, until all the editors understand that WHO will no longer be using the term pandemic and settle on a new criteria, there won't be any new pandemics listed.

Wikipedia is very fast to update uncontroversial statements, but anything controversial (like calling something a "pandemic" without a published reference or official statement) is going to get reverted. You cannot add to the list of pandemics based on the definition of pandemic either -- Wikipedia doesn't allow "original research", so you must find a source that has called it a pandemic and convince anyone who disagrees that your source is more authoritative than their source. With long-term disagreements with many sources on both sides, sometimes both views are presented, but it all becomes very political at that point. (Political in the sense of the type of human interaction, not in the sense of partisanship.)

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Trump and friends are bad enough, but these people are just like him but on the other side of the fence. Can people really not see this? These people say not to panic while spreading panic through their own choices of words. One of the most obvious examples of utter asinine stupidity here was when the guy says its a global pandemic 3:12 then changes to "will become a pandemic" in the same damn sentence!

Then the same clown at 5:29 ... Some good people, some smart people, some experienced people.....some of the BEST people right? Sounds like who?? Got a name buddy? Guess not.

6:04 China dealt with this and the numbers of infections are going down. Then 6:55 they (China) are facing a crisis that could explode into a pandemic. Which position would this fool like to take here?

Those people are all worse than useless, same as Trump. And if this does not show you why I keep my own counsel, I am afraid nothing will.

 

[SmudgyBuddy]

I just used google. Punched in define: pandemic. And it gave me this definition.
I don't even like Wikipedia. But I use it as a general source when I want to know the difference in titles for video games in Japanese, in other worlds.
I don't know, I'd start prepping for the inevitable just in case. Have at least a month's worth of supplies just in case. At least that's what they're telling my family overseas.

 

[TGI-ECT]

A university student has created a map that provides information about COVID-19 cases thus far identified by the relevant government authorities: coromap - 新型コロナウイルスの感染状況マップ

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I don't even like Wikipedia.

I love it. I see conservatives bash it a lot, but that is only because Wiki has a liberal bias toward the truth so conservative attempts to edit in their spin and lies are generally reverted. Any controversy is usually explained on the discussion pages, as are edit wars. You can find the truth in there if there is any doubt about the main page. Its at least true that Wiki does not always think for you. Sometimes you have to do that yourself and yeah, conservatives hate that too.

But I do certainly miss my Collier's Encyclopedias from the late 1960s.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

God the press is garbage. Now the government is going after "resellers" of "disease prevention masks", whatever that means exactly. Apparently they want to go after price gougers but all middle-men are resellers including drug stores and home centers and plenty of online traders and whatnot. Are they just going to allow the rich to profit off this now? All the articles I have read about it are completely unclear as who can do what and who can't.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

So....is everyone dead yet?

 

[Lothor]

So....is everyone dead yet?

I'm still alive!
I've been looking in vain for some up-to-date information on the number of tests carried out by different countries. The number of cases in Japan is going up relatively slowly (less than 10% a day) compared with other countries and I suspect it's due to a lack of testing. Life seems to be going on as normal in Tokyo and this morning the Yamanote line was almost as crowded as on a pre-coronavirus day. A lack of measures at the moment may end up in a lot more people being infected in the next few weeks, though I'm not sure what the best measures would be.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Bah. I think everyone has gotten tired of the pretend crisis that became somewhat of a real crisis for pretending. Influenza is still more deadly....but is so old news. (sigh)

 

[Lothor]

Bah. I think everyone has gotten tired of the pretend crisis that became somewhat of a real crisis for pretending. Influenza is still more deadly....but is so old news. (sigh)

This article gives a good description of the difficulty the medical system in northern Italy is having coping with the coronavirus in a country that still has less than 10,000 cases. Italy's Draconian Lockdown Shows Why Mass Quarantines Won't Work in the West
Unless we decide to write off the most elderly and frail 1-2% of the population by letting them die at home without treatment, which wouldn't reflect very highly on us as a civilisation, this is a crisis because it's going to take up virtually all the health resources of most countries, allowing other health problems to go untreated.

 

[TGI-ECT]

Mark of Zorro, it is very obvious by now that you are of the opinion the major media players around the world have been devoting excessive coverage to COVID-19, so I would like to ask how you would have your editors cover this story, if you were in a position to make such decisions in a large media company?

Would you simply tell your editors and reporters to ignore all information related to this virus? Would you simply have them place statistics on maybe page 10?

I mean, I am sort of wanting to get a deeper sense of where you are with this. You've made your point now, so maybe some specifics would be a better way to go for us that might be interested in your way of viewing this trouble.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Mark of Zorro, it is very obvious by now that you are of the opinion the major media players around the world has been devoting excessive coverage to COVID-19, so I would like to ask how you would have your editors cover this story, if you were in a position to make such decisions in a large media company?

Would you simply tell your editors and reporters to ignore all information related to this virus? Would you simply have them place statistics on maybe page 10?

I mean, I am sort of wanting to get a deeper sense of where you are with this. You've made your point now, so maybe some specifics would be a better way to go for us that might be interested in your way of viewing this trouble.

Mainly I would have them focus on developments with regards to the treatment, recovery, deaths and reasons for the deaths, but with fewer articles. I would include balanced coverage of influenza as well. I would not just focus on the spread as the media seems to be doing.

Of course I would report on it. But there is other news that is also important. Corona has stopped no wars. What is the casualty rate of war?

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Unless we decide to write off the most elderly and frail 1-2% of the population

Well that's a bit extreme. Of course sick people belong in the hospital, but I think there is too much worry about the spread of Covid 19 and I think quarantines are not being properly conducted, which is just getting OTHER people sick and amounts to the same thing. I have not read your article yet though. I will. But what is chafing my nuts right now is NO ONE is telling us EXACTLY how and why those people are dying. NO ONE. I wish someone would tell us already. Just saying "Corona" is NOT enough. WHAT is the EXACT problem? Anyone?

 

[TGI-ECT]

I think that if you are going to use something like that idea about armed conflict as a gauge of whether it deserves front page coverage, we'd better start with automobile accidents first.

And you are not correct in stating that nobody is writing about the exact nature of the medical trouble this new virus is causing.

One example where you can start to see where specifics are being provided, and where links to other specifics are being provided: Why we should stop comparing the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak to the 1918 Spanish flu

 

[Lothor]

Well that's a bit extreme. Of course sick people belong in the hospital, but I think there is too much worry about the spread of Covid 19 and I think quarantines are not being properly conducted, which is just getting OTHER people sick and amounts to the same thing. I have not read your article yet though. I will. But what is chafing my nuts right now is NO ONE is telling us EXACTLY how and why those people are dying. NO ONE. I wish someone would tell us already. Just saying "Corona" is NOT enough. WHAT is the EXACT problem? Anyone?

I'm reluctant to answer your question because of a lack of medical training but does this answer your question?

Coronavirus: What it does to the body

What is it like to have the coronavirus, how will it affect you and how is it treated?

www.bbc.com

As far as I understand, the symptoms caused by the virus may not be so different from those caused by flu but are enough to kill a sizeable proportion of people who already have a body weakened by age or pre-existing conditions.