Best investment opportunities

[Shouganai]

The best investment opportunities. There are not too many great investments in an economic contraction like this, but there are some. I would suggest the following:
1. gold stocks - Stimulus will eventually result in govts printing money.
2. Precious metals - Silver, platinum, palladium all good.
3. CFDs or derivatives in precious metals - mind you, you are taking a counterparty risk
4. Foreclosed property in Japan - outlook not great now, but great yields outside the city, premature to buy in the city CBDs. Outer fringe areas make great buying, rural areas always good for lifestyle. Sooo cheap! You could buy a house for as little as $10-20,000 due to depopulation.
6. Rural property in NZ - City property is overpriced, but if you dont need to work in the city, or want to rent, then prices are modest, and the NZD is at a low point for foreigners earning USD,JPY,EUR. The NZD has fallen from USD0.80 to USD0.50. So great currency trade in beautiful country, no capital gains tax or transfer taxes, no GST on property. People will say the economy is in bad shape. Yeh, that's why its cheap. Its a counter-cyclical investment, but when cheap, sell when currency recovers in 4-5 years. The 9% budget deficit will turn around like it did in the 1990s. Expect compulsory super to boost savings.
7. Property in the Philippines - regional property is more appealing, as it will benefit from more call centres going there. Yes, during a contraction, call centres are still shifting to the Philippines. More are being set up in smaller regional centres rather than Metro Manila as the infrastructure improves.
You can find more info by searching Google for foreclosed property. A lot of Westerners are doing it, and it makes sense if you are living there for a few years. Japan & the Philippines property markets are among the most under-leveraged and did not have the big gains. That will be important when the global economic activity finally picks up.

 

[Dogen Z]

Spam alert!!!

You've posted this before. It smelled like SPAM then; since you reposted the same message, I'm pretty sure it is SPAM.
Trying to unload some unsellable properties, huh?
Well, let me list the DISADVANTAGES:

1. Real estate investment is highly illiquid--you have to wait for a buyer to come along and this may take a longer time than the investor can wait.

2. It requiers a hand-on approach--either the investor or some he/she can really trust is required to take active management of the property.

3. The property and any income it generates is subject to local/national taxes.

4. Due Diligence--you need to really understand the market for your investment as well as all aspects of the property.

5. Currency exposure --any investments that require foreign exchange carries a risk that the foreign currency will depreciate minimizing and gains or magnifiying any losses.

If any of you want to diversify your investments with foreign assets, talk to a trusted financial advisor.

 

[Shouganai]

Spam? Hardly. Very cynical. Actually I wrote this fresh on the night it was posted. I have written similar content before true, because not much has changed in the last 3-4 months. I must be consistent You might argue its biased, so let me address your criticism..who knows you might actually be right.

Trying to unload some unsellable properties, huh?

Sorry to disappoint you, I'm not selling property, not an agent either. So lets examine your arguments:

1. Real estate investment is highly illiquid--you have to wait for a buyer to come along and this may take a longer time than the investor can wait.

Property is illiquid in the sense that it takes a long time to settle, but so what. That should only bother someone who is not a conceptual thinker. I sense your vulnerability. If the property market is a good market, its a good market. Liquidity is hardly an issue. Buying foreclosed property, you lock your price in on the day. The poor sentiment means you get a better price.

2. It requiers a hand-on approach--either the investor or some he/she can really trust is required to take active management of the property.

Well often investors pay property managers to look after the property, some people get neighbours to collect rent, some do it themselves depending on their personal context. Some actually owner-occupy the premises. Rather than pay high rents, they realise its better to earn high yields.

3. The property and any income it generates is subject to local/national taxes.

Actually property is subjected to capital gains tax unless you do it as a business, but that's true for most markets except NZ, as indicated. Income tax only if you are in the business like a broker. All forms of income are subject to tax. That's the system you voted for.

4. Due Diligence--you need to really understand the market for your investment as well as all aspects of the property.

Yes and no. You need to think. I guess you are breaking out into a cold sweat about now. Even the Japanese bonds paying 1% require you to think.

5. Currency exposure --any investments that require foreign exchange carries a risk that the foreign currency will depreciate minimizing and gains or magnifiying any losses.

Well I guess you are talking about Philippines or NZ property. Well, thats where a litlte knowledge and research goes a long way.

If any of you want to diversify your investments with foreign assets, talk to a trusted financial advisor.

Wow, I could swear you sound like an investment advisor...talking that nonsense. Investment advisors are sales people like any other. They get paid commissions. The only good advisors are independent analysts, and only then when they are critical thinkers. What a joke! The last time I heard one, they were talking up the 'buy and hold' strategy before the crash. good one! Thanks for your advice. I actually expected more.

 

[Pachipro]

Best investment opportunities in this crazy world of ours today would be (and I agree with most of Shouganai's statements):

Swiss Francs: (all governments and the elite of the world have much of their assets in Switzerland as they have done for hundreds of years. Thus Switzerland is always "neutral" and protected from the wars and economic downturns facing other nations)

Japanese Yen: (many predict it may even reach 50 yen/US$ I think 70yen/$ is in the near future, but you never know. I'm glad I bought in when it was 124/US$)

Chinese Renembi (as they will be the only country producing anything for export and their economy, while not rising to the levels of years past, will continue growing nonetheless as they are the major exporter to the world with many companies now having their factories there.)

Gold and silver bullion and/or rare coins in gold/silver: (It is always the "safe haven" in times of economic unrest. Silver has risen 50% in just two months thank you!!)

Shares in gold and silver mining operations As silver and gold increase, mining becomes more profitable)

I own all of the above.

Real Estate: Hmm, I'm not sure as even Japan's real estate prices have not even come close to the levels of the late 80's/early90's and those that bought back then are still in the hole. However, buying in todays market may provide some profit, but I'd wait a bit.

Stocks: No way, no how as they will only reach new lows with little bumps up here and there to suck in the gullible thinking that the markets are on a rebound. Once a World Bank is formed and every country is finally on the same page, maybe, maybe, I would think again about investing in stocks, but that is still some years away. America will and must, go bankrupt first. And it will. However there are still some stocks that may turn a profit as they always have like in energy, oil, and defense.

 

[Air America]

Gold is only valuable if people want it and accept it in trade for other things they want and need.
If the US dollar crashes, people will not be wanting to buy gold chains.
They will be NEEDING food.
They will be wanting producing farms.
If the US dollar crashes, The US will not be able to afford to produce and export food and raw materials to countries that depend on them.
Millions will starve. The price of food and other needed materials the US exports will skyrocket world wide.
Then the US will simply go with the raising prices, and resume production, and cash in on their old products newfound value and price.
The US and nations like saudi arabia can never go broke as long as they have a limitless supply of materials other nations depend on for their survival and way of life, and they have their oil fields, mines, and farms secure and heavily defended.
Suppliers NEVER sell their customers their source. You don't want your customers to become your supplier do you?
My stockbroker at Euro Pacific told me to invest heavily into foreclosed US property and farm stock.
He is betting on the dollar collapsing soon.
But if the US becomes like old Japan and uses rice and food and raw materials as currency. US farmland and raw material stock will go to the roof!
If food becomes money, how much will fertile US farmland be worth?
I haven't committed yet, but I understand his reasoning.

 

[Shouganai]

Best investment opportunities in this crazy world of ours today would be (and I agree with most of Shouganai's statements):

Same sentiments here, but I will differentiate myself a little too.
No problem with Swiss francs; but I can't see the yen reaching reach 50 yen/US$ because of the underlying strengths of the US economy, not withstanding the corruption at the top. eg. money making games causing distortion. I believe the historic support (from memory) is 87yen, which is the level I suggested would be reached now about 8 months ago, so my timing is off.

Chinese Renembi (as they will be the only country producing anything for export and their economy, while not rising to the levels of years past, will continue growing nonetheless as they are the major exporter to the world with many companies now having their factories there.)

I agree, so long as China is the lowest cost producer and has the capacity to generate its own internal demand it will do relatively better, which is what currencies are about.
Of course I agree on precious metals. I prefer stocks because of the greater leverage. So high cost precious metals producers make a lot of sense, just not in RSA where a rising currency will drive them into bankruptcy. The price you pay for being a precious metals producer. You might well argue that this is a VERY good reason to buy Rand. It has to stand out as the best currency.

Real Estate: Hmm, I'm not sure as even Japan's real estate prices have not even come close to the levels of the late 80's/early90's and those that bought back then are still in the hole. However, buying in todays market may provide some profit, but I'd wait a bit.

I agree with you if you are talking about city property, but fringe and rural properties will not fall further, and you will get better prices now since the outlook is negative. Certainly I can't see it getting worse in foreclosed market in these areas.

Stocks: No way, no how as they will only reach new lows with little bumps up here and there to suck in the gullible thinking that the markets are on a rebound. Once a World Bank is formed and every country is finally on the same page, maybe, maybe, I would think again about investing in stocks, but that is still some years away. America will and must, go bankrupt first. And it will. However there are still some stocks that may turn a profit as they always have like in energy, oil, and defence.

I disagree with you here because markets get overbought & oversold. When banks in Australia fall 70% to a major support 2 weeks ago I recommended them. Sure, long term broad equities will perform badly, but you can trade medium term to goo effect. So when people look at the 1970s and say no money was made in the period, they are not breaking it down into yearly periods. Small investors can do better than funds in these periods. You just need to become a chart trader. The 'buy & hold' strategy stays in Arctic territory where it belongs.

 

[Shouganai]

Gold is only valuable if people want it and accept it in trade for other things they want and need.

I'm afraid you like a great many people don't understand the role of gold. Its not just an item of jewellery and industrial demand, its also a form of money. In that role its tangible. The money in your pocket is a claim against taxpayers to pay tax. That's an intangible form of wealth since its based on slavery. Its based on flawed ethical values. There is also the capacity for the US to flood the world with USD to repay all its debts since they are all denominated in USD. The implication is that the US is better off than China or Japan who hold US paper. The US debtors (households mostly) are holding real assets (property). Ask yourself - if you are right - why are gold prices holding, even rising, and inflation has yet to really move. I agree with you, producing farms are not a bad thing, though if poverty, people might be pinching your fruit & vege.

If the US dollar crashes, The US will not be able to afford to produce and export food and raw materials to countries that depend on them. Millions will starve. The price of food and other needed materials the US exports will skyrocket world wide.

The US is a food basket, it does not depend on the rest of the world, so I agree with your point BUT....

The US and nations like saudi arabia can never go broke as long as they have a limitless supply of materials other nations depend on for their survival and way of life, and they have their oil fields, mines, and farms secure and heavily defended.

Its not a case of the US going broke, but some poor and unprepared people going broke.

My stockbroker at Euro Pacific told me to invest heavily into foreclosed US property and farm stock. He is betting on the dollar collapsing soon.

I think the time will come in the next 8 months when it will be a good time to buy US property again...its still a little soon.

But if the US becomes like old Japan and uses rice and food and raw materials as currency. US farmland and raw material stock will go to the roof! If food becomes money, how much will fertile US farmland be worth? I haven't committed yet, but I understand his reasoning.

We will not return to a barter economy, we will stay with the USD until another currency is invented. Brentton Woods over again. Will there be any principles behind this currency? I don't it, just a recapitalisation of the world to make it look like these people know what they are doing, so they can stay in power.

 

[Dogen Z]

Beware!

Real estate is one of the riskiest investments you can make unless you are actually going to use the poperty. And average historic returns on real estate in the U.S. over the last century was only about 3%. (The U.S. was the fastest growing economy at that time.)

If someone comes up to you and tells you that you can make a killing in undervalued property in the coutryside, turn and run the other way because you're dealing with a SCAM ARTIST.

The OP is trying to cause some confusion so you should WATCH OUT. For example, regarding illiquidity, the time to settle is besides the point, you may not be able to sell a property when you want to or need to. Information about real estate is highly assymetric, which means there are a few that know or think they know what's happening and those that don't (who become victims of the former group).

Another example is the OP's argument about gold. If gold doesn't have much intrinsic value, i.e. practical use, then it's practically the same as paper money--and paper money is more convenient.

Without taking much more time, I just want to tell readers to BEWARE. There's an old saying that goes: Beware of free advice, it is seldom cheap. SCAMS are born every minute on the Internet, don't get suckered.

If you need investment advice, find someone you can trust and talk to---and sue, if needed, if he/she gives you misleading information. Get rich quick schemes are a sure way to lose your money.

 

[Shouganai]

Real estate is one of the riskiest investments you can make unless you are actually going to use the poperty. And average historic returns on real estate in the U.S. over the last century was only about 3%. (The U.S. was the fastest growing economy at that time.)
If someone comes up to you and tells you that you can make a killing in undervalued property in the coutryside, turn and run the other way because you're dealing with a SCAM ARTIST.

Real estate is tricky? And that would be based on your limited knowledge? Should we all place ourselves in your camp, or should we perhaps think in our own personal context, because you have clearly resigned yourself to the fact that the best you can do is 1%. All the best with that strategy. And you think we are in a deflationary period right? Amusing. The politicians perfect lap dog.

The OP is trying to cause some confusion so you should WATCH OUT. For example, regarding illiquidity, the time to settle is besides the point, you may not be able to sell a property when you want to or need to. Information about real estate is highly assymetric, which means there are a few that know or think they know what's happening and those that don't (who become victims of the former group).

You're speaking like a true economics 101 graduate. Yes indeed, liquidity is not really an issue, but you raised it, so I'm surprised you would critique it. Yes, if one is buying property one should be looking with the intent of it being a long term investment. Capital growth on rural property is not great, in fact it doesn't but that was not the point. This is a period of yield, not property asset growth. I don't see a lot of property asset growth, so I am suggesting rural property as a yield proposition. Rural yields are very high because they make mo capital growth return. when the global economy resumes growing in 4-5 years, then you switch back to capital growth property. All property is indexed to inflation since its really asset, cash does not. Frankly I prefer gold-based assets, but you have to live somewhere, so better to be retaining yield then paying out for it, and its one option if you have surplus cash. But you missed the other aspect - the forex element, which is why I recommend Japan or NZ.

Another example is the OP's argument about gold. If gold doesn't have much intrinsic value, i.e. practical use, then it's practically the same as paper money--and paper money is more convenient.
Without taking much more time, I just want to tell readers to BEWARE. There's an old saying that goes: Beware of free advice, it is seldom cheap. SCAMS are born every minute on the Internet, don't get suckered.

I didn't say gold has no intrinsic value. Gold is probably the most useful metal known to man. But then so is silver, which trades for 50x less. You didn't answer my question. If gold is useless, why does it trade for $950/oz, whilst your advice is given away free on the internet? You're the economist - answer that one please! The last 100 years has been very dull for economists. The reason is they are detached from the reality. Please tie that fact into your modelling, and explain to me. My explanation is that gold is a real commodity with value as jewellery, money, as well as industrial applications...but mostly as money...real money. It's not a liability like cash. Cash is a no longer a liability for the government to pay you in gold, which meant something when the govt had gold, and it would mean still more if we knew how much gold the Federal Reserve has. But the reality is that the Federal Reserve is not required to disclose its gold holdings. Its a private enterprise.

If you need investment advice, find someone you can trust and talk to---and sue, if needed, if he/she gives you misleading information. Get rich quick schemes are a sure way to lose your money.

You really are detached from the real world. Firstly no one gives you advice with any guarantees, and you wouldn't trust them if they did. They all place disclaimers at the bottom of their research. Regardless of whether its misleading. Of course part of the reason is they concede they make mistakes, as I occasionally do, and its also because they cannot so easily offer advice in the context of your personal matters. Of course it helps if they know your personal context. More important though is independent advice (which I offer) and that people exercise their critical judgement/analysis (as I do as a critical analyst). This is what gives me the capacity to reduce your arguments to tears.
So please explain gold for me. Its worthless....but seemingly defying your logic.

 

[sgxtrend]

 

[Dogen Z]

I know what you're trying to say (your keyboard must be busted), "A fool and his money are soon parted," or "If you don't know what you're doing, this can be a very expensive lesson."

Let's see, when I posted my last comments here gold was trading at about $1,000 per oz. and now it's trading at about $1,050 per oz. A 5% return is not too shabby in these times, but when translated into yen, which appreciated about 11% during that time, there's a loss. (And you still need to be careful about the bubble bursting- when China stops buying it, price will fall.)

What you might want to do now is look at S. Korean won backed assets. The won is very undervalued and under pressure to appreciate.

 

[Shouganai]

Let's see, when I posted my last comments here gold was trading at about $1,000 per oz. and now it's trading at about $1,050 per oz. A 5% return is not too shabby in these times, but when translated into yen, which appreciated about 11% during that time, there's a loss. (And you still need to be careful about the bubble bursting- when China stops buying it, price will fall.)
What you might want to do now is look at S. Korean won backed assets. The won is very undervalued and under pressure to appreciate.

So is the yen still falling. Gold is falling against other currencies. The other point which you are not appreciating is that gold is heading over $2000/oz. We are a long way from a bursting bubble. Also, one does not invest in gold metal, you invest in gold resources (which are assured of being developed into long life mining operations (say over 7 year, but up to 50yrs).
Investing in the won will make sense in a few years, but not for a few years....short term rallies aside. Be patient...gold will outshine over the next 5 years.

 

[joypeace]

Investing in the won will make sense in a few years, but not for a few years....short term rallies aside. Be patient...gold will outshine over the next 5 years. ----------I agree with you.

 

[Davey]

How about buying a house in a candidate country for the European Union? Such as Croatia, Macedonia, or Turkey?