COVID-19 Coronavirus: situation in Japan

[Lothor]

I addressed this in my post.

I'm not sure how familiar you are with this part of Tokyo, but Kichijoji/Mitaka is essentially indistinguishable from Suginami/Setagaya in terms of streetscape, lifestyle, etc. Both have their fair share of bustling stations and shopping arcades (as I mentioned, Kichijoji in particular was taking huge flack for its main drag, Star Road, being packed even after the state of emegency) as well as parks, greenery, etc.

I literally lived on the exact border of Mitaka-shi and Suginami-ku once.
Believe me, it's not like Tokyo instantly transforms from a suffocating, dreary urban concrete jungle to a beautiful green paradise the second you step outside the 23 wards.

Know the area quite well - I used to live in Hoya a few miles to the north. Still, you've got the lovely Tama cycle trail starting close by, which quickly gets you out into green areas.
I'm wondering whether the high number of cases in Setagaya-ku is because a large number of wealthy (and I assume well-connected) people live there, who have been more assertive in getting tested.

 

[misternada]

Day 19 of the state of emergency, wife stays in her pyjamas all day long playing on her smartphone, will get 60% of her salary and Japanese government payout, is this the end of days ?

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I'm not sure how familiar you are with this part of Tokyo, but Kichijoji/Mitaka is essentially indistinguishable from Suginami/Setagaya in terms of streetscape, lifestyle, etc.

I may not be familiar enough, but are their fewer extremely tall buildings, less crowding and are they closer to mountains/forests?

I was not trying to say they were like typical American suburbia, but just a bit further from the horror that is downtown Tokyo.

 

[Davey]

Well seems like Kobe will keep the schools closed until the end of May...

神戸新聞NEXT｜総合｜神戸市立の学校園、５月末まで休校延長へ　市長が市教委に要請

新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大防止のため、神戸市の久元喜造市長は２７日、５月３１日までの市立学校園の休校延長を市教育委員会に要請した。同市教委は臨時の教育委員会

www.kobe-np.co.jp

 

[Majestic]

Only 39 people testing positive yesterday in Tokyo, and 172 people testing positive in all of Japan. An astonishingly low number of people.
Bear in mind there is an equally astonishing low number of tests being administered. On the 26th of this month, in the middle of a pandemic in one of the worlds's largest cities, there were only 314 PCR tests given.

新型コロナ保健医療情報ポータル　東京都保健医療局

Still, a trend is a trend, and it truly feels as if the corner has been turned, and now we can start thinking about returning to work.

(The low numbers present a difficult dilemma, as it will be hard to convince people to stay at home when there is such a tiny number of daily infections.)

Will post yesterday's graph once NHK updates their site.

 

[musicisgood]

Only 39 people testing positive yesterday in Tokyo, and 172 people testing positive in all of Japan. An astonishingly low number of people.
Bear in mind there is an equally astonishing low number of tests being administered. On the 26th of this month, in the middle of a pandemic in one of the worlds's largest cities, there were only 314 PCR tests given.

新型コロナ保健医療情報ポータル　東京都保健医療局

Still, a trend is a trend, and it truly feels as if the corner has been turned, and now we can start thinking about returning to work.

(The low numbers present a difficult dilemma, as it will be hard to convince people to stay at home when there is such a tiny number of daily infections.)

Will post yesterday's graph once NHK updates their site.

Hey Majestic, thanks for the update. But this is what may really show the true update in the future. It is well known around the world by now that the asymptomatic carrier can carry the virus up to 42 days without any major symptoms. The chart I'm posting needs to be followed up on the time zone to really analyze the future projection of cases from the ending starting of the cherry blossom season and go from there to the 37 to 42 day time period of an explosion of cases. Will Japan do public testing once GW is over. My guess is they might have to. And are they really going to open up the schools. There's a new report coming out of England where school children have gotten some kind of illness. Do you know anything about this also. Personally, yes, they will open schools around May 6th, but I really feel that will be short lived. I actually don't see schools in real open time till after the summer school vacation.
Here is the chart.

Japan Cherry Blossom 2020 Report

April 6, 2020 – Cherry blossom season for this year in Tokyo and Yokohama has ended.

April 3, 2020 – The sakura season has arrived in Northern Japan with cherry blossoms in Sendai and Fukushima have reached peak bloom.


March 29, 2020 – Cherry blossoms are in full bloom in Osaka, Kyoto , Nagoya, Hiroshima, Yokohama, and Fukuoka.

March 23, 2020 – Sakura in Tokyo reached full bloom.

March 14, 2020 – The start of cherry blossom season in Tokyo has begun.

March 9, 2020 – Date of first bloom in Tokyo is on March 14 and full bloom will be on March 22, according to the fourth forecast of Weather Map Japan.

February 14, 2020 – Sakura are in full swing in Kawazu, a small town in the Izu Peninsula.

February 04, 2020 – It's full bloom in Okinawa !

January 23, 2020 – Weather Map Japan has issued its first cherry blossom forecast of the season. Date of first bloom forecast: March 21 in Kochi, March 22 in Tokyo, March 25 in Osaka, March 24 in Nagoya, March 25 in Kyoto, and March 29 in Kanazawa.

 

[bentenmusume]

Why do you keep insisting that there will be an "explosion" of cases after cherry blossom season?

Cherry blossom season has already come and gone in most places and no one (or almost no one, compared to usual) is doing hanami this year. Gatherings are being strongly discouraged or outright prohibited, and many parks are even being closed down. No offense, but sometimes it looks like you're just searching for reasons to work yourself into a panic.

I'm not saying we can all rest easy, but there's far more cause for cautious optimism than your doomsday scenario posts suggest.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

(The low numbers present a difficult dilemma, as it will be hard to convince people to stay at home when there is such a tiny number of daily infections.)

There was never a good rationale for all this "everyone stay at home" stuff in the first place and now there is not even a so-so rationale. Its over for now. Now we wait and see if it comes back in the fall. Its going to live on through the old and chronically sick here who are mostly indoors even in summer, and it will live on internationally as well, especially in the tropics and southern hemisphere, and will be imported. The question is if it will mutate to a less troublesome form or not. Staying at home won't fix it.

 

[musicisgood]

Why do you keep insisting that there will be an "explosion" of cases after cherry blossom season?

Cherry blossom season has already come and gone in most places and no one (or almost no one, compared to usual) is doing hanami this year. Gatherings are being strongly discouraged or outright prohibited, and many parks are even being closed down. No offense, but sometimes it looks like you're just searching for reasons to work yourself into a panic.

I'm not saying we can all rest easy, but there's far more cause for cautious optimism than your doomsday scenario posts suggest.

It's not dooms day thinking. I'm basing it upon the events that took place in China, New York City and New Orleans. Also, the spring breaks from universities that traveled to Mexico and beaches in Florida. Its the asymptomatic people that haven't been tested, but as you know now, those figures are starting to show up. Silence is not always golden.

 

[bentenmusume]

But cherry blossom season is already over and aside from one 3-day weekend before the state of emergency was declared (which did result in a spike that has already been reflected in the numbers) nobody is doing hanami.

What American college students did on spring break is not relevant when we have no evidence that Japanese people are currently doing anything similar. (And in fact, evidence to the contrary. I mean, it's freaking Golden Week and the airports and shinkansen platforms look like ghost towns.)

 

[mdchachi]

Bear in mind there is an equally astonishing low number of tests being administered.

I asked my wife why testing counts are so low (because we have Japanese TV on probably 4 hours a day). She thinks it's because all the places to put CV-positive people (hospitals, hotels) are full. If they don't have capacity to deal with positive tests they don't test.
If that's really the reason it's way premature to celebrate these low numbers.

 

[Majestic]

It is well known around the world by now that the asymptomatic carrier can carry the virus up to 42 days without any major symptoms.

I don't know if that is really well-known, or if it is even what it means for making policy decisions. The figures I was looking at were saying the average time from exposure to showing symptoms was slightly over 5 days. Something like 5.2 days. And the same figures I saw showed that something like 97% of people with covid19 came down with the disease within 2 weeks of being exposed to it. So nearly 100% of the people with covid19, will have come down with it well within two weeks. The WHO says the same thing on its website.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

WHO is continuously monitoring and responding to this pandemic. This questions and answers page will be updated as more is known about COVID-19, how it spreads and how it is affecting people worldwide. For more information, regularly check the WHO coronavirus pages. https://www.who.int/covid-19

www.who.int

The consensus from the Japanese commentators I saw, was that the cherry-blossom viewing that occurred during the 3-day weekend of March 20, 21, 22, was the cause of the initial surge in cases, and I am aware that there is chatter that says the cases we've seen recently were perhaps secondary infections of family members from that initial surge. But I believe all of that is behind us now. The main problem now seems to be clusters developing among health-care workers, and nursing homes.
We don't see any resurgence in Korea, Taiwan, or Hong Kong so far. Singapore had a resurgence, but it was all located in migrant dormitories, not among the general population. Europe seems to be seeing a decline in their numbers. So, no need to be overly paranoid about a resurgence just yet.

 

[musicisgood]

I asked my wife why testing counts are so low (because we have Japanese TV on probably 4 hours a day). She thinks it's because all the places to put CV-positive people (hospitals, hotels) are full. If they don't have capacity to deal with positive tests they don't test.
If that's really the reason it's way premature to celebrate these low numbers.

I feel most of us here have been saying the same thing. Just saw on TV that now they have started drive thru testing. Not sure if it is govt. or private?
Maybe someone can stop by and confirm.

 

[musicisgood]

I don't know if that is really well-known, or if it is even what it means for making policy decisions. The figures I was looking at were saying the average time from exposure to showing symptoms was slightly over 5 days. Something like 5.2 days. And the same figures I saw showed that something like 97% of people with covid19 came down with the disease within 2 weeks of being exposed to it. So nearly 100% of the people with covid19, will have come down with it well within two weeks. The WHO says the same thing on its website.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

WHO is continuously monitoring and responding to this pandemic. This questions and answers page will be updated as more is known about COVID-19, how it spreads and how it is affecting people worldwide. For more information, regularly check the WHO coronavirus pages. https://www.who.int/covid-19

www.who.int

The consensus from the Japanese commentators I saw, was that the cherry-blossom viewing that occurred during the 3-day weekend of March 20, 21, 22, was the cause of the initial surge in cases, and I am aware that there is chatter that says the cases we've seen recently were perhaps secondary infections of family members from that initial surge. But I believe all of that is behind us now. The main problem now seems to be clusters developing among health-care workers, and nursing homes.
We don't see any resurgence in Korea, Taiwan, or Hong Kong so far. Singapore had a resurgence, but it was all located in migrant dormitories, not among the general population. Europe seems to be seeing a decline in their numbers. So, no need to be overly paranoid about a resurgence just yet.

Hong Kong just started a "2 visitor" to a persons residence. So they still are clamping down. Although people are freely moving around, many little shops are working at reduced hours.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I predicted the government would take credit for what spring did. What I did not predict was that the people would be so willing to help them do it. (SMH)

I suppose I should have seen it coming because to believe it means the (in)action of the people staying home positively effected the world. Always suckers for the slightest bit of validation. The government could reap the whirlwind by passing out stay at home medals of honor next....."Here citizen! Your tax money pinned to your chest in the form of a useless ornament! And of course half the cost went to my buddy with the metal presses and I got ten percent in kickbacks! Good job citizen! Here is a cookie too! I got a buddy who makes them!" (groan)

And it just got way easier for the government to put us all under house arrest on a pretense. Congratulations.

 

[musicisgood]

I predicted the government would take credit for what spring did. What I did not predict was that the people would be so willing to help them do it. (SMH)

I suppose I should have seen it coming because to believe it means the (in)action of the people staying home positively effected the world. Always suckers for the slightest bit of validation. The government could reap the whirlwind by passing out stay at home medals of honor next....."Here citizen! Your tax money pinned to your chest in the form of a useless ornament! And of course half the cost went to my buddy with the metal presses and I got ten percent in kickbacks! Good job citizen! Here is a cookie too! I got a buddy who makes them!" (groan)

It just got way easier for the government to put us all under house arrest on a pretense. Congratulations.

Also, I don't feel the 100000 yen is a ONE TIME thing either. If it is , then the govt. plans to open up all businesses and schools and I feel at the present time it would be a wrong mistake. By the way, is there unemployment insurance in Japan?

 

[Majestic]

Here is yesterday's graph from NHK showing the remarkable decline in numbers, thanks in part to social distancing and the stay at home requests issued two weeks prior by Tokyo and the national government.

A worrying trend is the increase in people out and about.

新型コロナウイルス 感染者数やNHK最新ニュース｜NHK特設サイト

【NHK】新型コロナウイルスの日本国内の感染者数や最新ニュースはこちらです。初期症状や感染予防の情報、ワクチン・治療薬・PCR検査に関する最新情報、補助金・助成金などの支援情報、学校関連の情報、政府や各都道府県の対応、分科会の見解や提言、番組のお知らせなどをまとめています。

www3.nhk.or.jp

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Here is yesterday's graph from NHK showing the remarkable decline in numbers, thanks in part to social distancing and the stay at home requests issued two weeks prior by Tokyo and the national government.

Have you ever heard of spring? Or are you avoiding mentioning it?

A worrying trend is the increase in people out and about.

To maintain physical health, sunshine and exercise are VITAL! Mental health can affect physical health, and they are both vital to mental health too!

Plus few people live on self-sufficient farms. They HAVE to get out to get life's basics!

And I cannot even do my usual grocery shopping at just one store because if they don't carry an item I am looking for then they are out of it.

 

[misternada]

I really hope the kids can go to school quickly, they just fought, the small one cannot move his arm now, my wife has to go to the hospital with him, exposing everybody to the COVID-19 in the process.

 

[johnnyG]

Virus Likely to Keep Coming Back Each Year, Say Top Chinese Scientists

Chinese scientists say the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, adding to a growing consensus around the world that the pathogen will likely return in waves like the flu.

It's unlikely the new virus will disappear the way its close cousin SARS did 17 years ago, as it infects some people without causing obvious symptoms like fever. This group of so-called asymptomatic carriers makes it hard to fully contain transmission as they can spread the virus undetected, a group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing at a briefing Monday.

With SARS, those infected became seriously ill. Once they were quarantined from others, the virus stopped spreading. In contrast, China is still finding dozens of asymptomatic cases of the coronavirus every day despite bringing its epidemic under control.

"This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies," said Jin Qi, director of the Institute of Pathogen Biology at China's top medial research institute, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences.

A consensus is forming among top researchers and governments worldwide that the virus is unlikely to be eliminated, despite costly lockdowns that have brought much of the global economy to a halt. Some public health experts are calling for the virus to be allowed to spread in a controlled way through younger populations like India's, while countries like Sweden have opted out of strict lockdowns.

Anthony Fauci, the director of U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said last month that Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, could become a seasonal ailment. He cited as evidence cases now showing up in countries across the southern hemisphere as they enter their winter seasons.

More than 3 million people have been sickened and over 210,000 killed in the global pandemic.

While some, including U.S. President Donald Trump, have expressed hope that the virus's spread will slow as the temperature in northern hemisphere countries rises in the summer, Chinese experts on Monday said that they found no evidence for this.

"The virus is heat sensitive, but that's when it's exposed to 56 degrees Celsius for 30 minutes and the weather is never going to get that hot," said Wang Guiqiang, head of the infectious diseases department of Peking University First Hospital. "So globally, even during the summer, the chance of cases going down significantly is small."

— With assistance by Dong Lyu, Sharon Chen, John Liu, and Yinan Zhao

Bloomberg Terminal.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I really hope the kids can go to school quickly, they just fought, the small one cannot move his arm now, my wife has to go to the hospital with him, exposing everybody to the COVID-19 in the process.

It seems to me some people care far more about the old and chronically ill and already close to death than children. We cannot save everyone but we have to have priorities and for me, it the kids. I hope your youngest will be okay.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

While some, including U.S. President Donald Trump, have expressed hope that the virus's spread will slow as the temperature in northern hemisphere countries rises in the summer, Chinese experts on Monday said that they found no evidence for this.

"The virus is heat sensitive, but that's when it's exposed to 56 degrees Celsius for 30 minutes and the weather is never going to get that hot," said Wang Guiqiang, head of the infectious diseases department of Peking University First Hospital. "So globally, even during the summer, the chance of cases going down significantly is small."

My bold. Since they did not even talk about higher humidity or longer days (more sunlight) and people spending more time outside, I call bullox on that. Nobody claimed it was just increased temperature that slows down the virus. Nobody but those so-called scientists. And BTW there is no global summer, so, uh...

And gee, all we got to do is go back up to the top half of the same article and we get:

"This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies," said Jin Qi, director of the Institute of Pathogen Biology at China's top medial research institute, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences.

My bold. So do the seasons matter or don't they? The article/Chinese scientists cannot seem to make up their mind. (sigh)

 

[nahadef]

Started a two week quarantine on Saturday. Already going stir crazy.

The first 'lockdown' in Hokkaido wasn't one, since the only thing that closed were the schools. This time most stuff is closed. Two weeks probably won't do the job though. My buddy and I try to laugh that this year is a write-off.

 

[mdchachi]

Started a two week quarantine on Saturday. Already going stir crazy.

The first 'lockdown' in Hokkaido wasn't one, since the only thing that closed were the schools. This time most stuff is closed. Two weeks probably won't do the job though. My buddy and I try to laugh that this year is a write-off.

Maybe you'll have the opportunity to make some more great art of your experiences. So not a write off from that perspective. But I'm guessing you mean financially.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

One thing I marvel at, like on JT for example, is the waffling between 1) Japan's lockdown is not a hard lockdown and is therefore garbage and 2) lockdowns are so very effective; have a look at Japan's numbers. Its almost comical.

The numbers of new cases in Japan are approaching rock bottom now. The first part of my prediction was dead on. God I am good! Soon the second part of my prediction kicks in and that's where they hit a low number and stay steady and low through the summer (official stats may even go to zero but I don't believe that will be true to the facts). I make no prediction on if it will resurge (still classified as Covid 19) in the fall or even be as severe an infection though. Both are possible but the conditions rely on too many random elements and is therefore not practical to predict.