COVID-19 Coronavirus: general discussion

[TGI-ECT]

I guess I will do another post, instead of an edit.

I read above opinions expressed that maybe PM Abe has it wrong with school closings and so I point out that today we are supposed to get some explanation from either him or somebody in the PM's office as to the reasoning behind the decision.

It seems that reducing large groups of humans to nothing or small is the technique used by other governing people in other nations around the planet and I suspect this sort of reaction has the backing of the medical professionals.

Anyway, we should be getting more information relatively soon.

 

[Davey]

Did he really give us a better understanding?

Interesting article:

Med experts skeptical over Japan PM's request to close all schools, claim it's 'baseless' - The Mainichi

TOKYO -- Many medical experts have raised questions over Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's request to close all schools in Japan from March 2 until spring b

mainichi.jp

 

[Mark of Zorro]

It seems that reducing large groups of humans to nothing or small is the technique used by other governing people in other nations around the planet

I think you need to keep it firmer in mind that what governing people know best is politics.

I suspect this sort of reaction has the backing of the medical professionals.

I suspect that that depends on specific groups and cases but politicians tend to skim scientific information to glean for some political advantage. Such specifics are not really a concern until they have scientific minded people breathing down their necks with the specifics, either because politicians are about to do something highly dangerous or allow something highly dangerous to happen through inaction. But that is not happening here because there is not an actual emergency. This is a pretend emergency. Even some people who we think are supposed to be scientifically minded are enjoying the attention and limelight too much to cast shade on it all. Some of these people have been in the shadows for a long time and now suddenly people want to talk to them. They can't bring themselves to kill the golden goose....at least not until it becomes clear a real disaster is going to happen...then they will start thinking right again.

 

[TGI-ECT]

I believe I have dropped bits of information around here in the recent past about my own rather unstable medical situation because of cancer and it is exactly that rather iffy medical situation which seems to be a real problem for people who are unlucky enough to get nailed by this silent little bug running amongst us human types. If my own medical situation were a tad bit more stable I probably wouldn't be focused as much as I am on what's going on with this virus bug trouble.

As for any media folks, or politicians, or anyone else taking advantage of anything because of this, --- well, that doesn't really make much of a difference to my system, if this bug gets me. So my view is to pay attention to what information is being allowed out to the public and overall being careful with that information we are able to gather from whomever is collecting it and then passing it out to us. I suppose we could state that older folks and us who have existing medical troubles have to be a tad more careful these days than before this all started back in December. This bug has proven it can take down humans in certain situations, and I happen to be in that sort of "certain situation" and I am guessing there are others like me and so I post links and things mainly for those that are the most at risk.

Bottom line is that folks like me have to be a tad more careful than some of you fine young to middle-age healthy humans, so I am thankful for information being given out in any form. And I thought those couple of links might be useful to others like me, if not for others in other sorts of groupings.

Might be a good idea for me to add the following ministry link:

新型コロナウイルス感染症

新型コロナウイルスに関する情報を紹介します。感染対策、ワクチン、罹患後症状、感染状況、Q&A、5類感染症移行後の対応など

www.mhlw.go.jp

And you'll see a link on that landing page for English speaking/reading folks; as well as for Chinese.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Bottom line is that folks like me have to be a tad more careful than some of you fine young to middle-age healthy humans

I just don't see how closing schools is going to help much. Plenty of vectors are being left open, while closing schools actually opens up new ones. Besides which its not just the novel corona virus to worry about.

Anyway take care and may you not get any cold or flu at all!

 

[TGI-ECT]

I suspect that the medical professionals gave the advice to the decision-makers that shutting down the schools was one of a few actions that would help keep the situation under some degree of control, and I also feel like that makes sense.

Now I am no medical specialist, except for what I know about my own systems, but one thing I'd bet on is if I were one of them little virus bug thingies I would much prefer to take up residence inside a young, very healthy human, rather than some old, beat-up system like mine, where I may not be able to stay alive too long because where I ended up just stops functioning.

And I'd bet long before this medical emergency came along some hotshot medical pro wrote some paper about young, super healthy humans are a kind of resort location for these weird medical freak bugs like we have flashing around our planet at present.

I have this terrible gut feeling that you know down deep, Mark of Zorro, that somebody has this one right, but your default view of this government causes you to just slide right under those comfy anarchist's blankets and drown out those medical professionals that are giving advice to the leader folks.

You sincerely do not think keeping the young folks healthy is good policy.

As for all the other possible areas of trouble, I think a whole bunch of large-gathered-together type situations have been cancelled all over the country, and it will continue.

But if I were to be tossed back about 20 plus years and have to make decisions concerning any of my now-grown children, I would probably have pulled my children out of the school system myself, whether the government authorized it, or not. Yep, I would get in a mess of trouble, but this fancy virus bug seems to like dancing around large groups of humans and I wouldn't want my children getting danced on.

And, Mark of Zorro, this business with the kids is just one corner of the ring. This is one seriously messy situation we humans have got ourselves into on this one. It might just be that some of these leader folks aren't doing so badly with this emergency.

I mean, you aren't offering that we should just ignore this nasty bug thing, are you?

You can tell that I am a tad bit confused what you view as proper decisions in this situation. This is kind of our chance to see how you would/might handle social emergencies that could possibly affect thousands of your fellow humans. Actually, I shouldn't be using that vocabulary "possibly" should I? This bug has got us by the butt. You aren't advocating we just ignore it, are you?

I suppose I am more than "a tad bit" confused.

And, thank you; I am going to try and keep that bug from taking up residence inside my own system, and also try and make sure family and associates and friends don't make what might be wrong moves. And I think I wish to place you into that category of 'I hope you and those close to you are careful and stay safe'.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

@TGI-ECT This discussion with you is getting really frustrating really fast. You are asking questions and making accusations about things I already answered earlier in this thread. So lets just go straight to a key point and work from there:

I suspect that the medical professionals gave the advice to the decision-makers

What medical professionals? What advice? And why suspect? Why not quote them?

Did you read the last article Davey provided?

 

[TGI-ECT]

What I am referring to is an area that none of us has access to, so I am making presumptions.

The first presumption is that the leader of a nation, no matter what nation, has some very qualified medical specialists to give him/her advice and so the advice is what is causing all sorts of leaders all over the planet to ask their citizens to not be congregating in large groups and that also would stand to reason that those same leaders would ask the educational authorities to halt the gathering together of large groups of the younger folks called students into them places we refer to as schools.

But I sure as heck can't be quoting anybody because I have not been asked by any of them upper-class folks to participate in any of their decision-making processes.

So I am making presumptions -- like maybe our leaders aren't all stupid and can handle a social emergency like we are facing right now on this planet.

And if my writings are that frustrating, I should just quietly back out of the room., silently close the door and slide off to an area of the planet where I won't be bothering you any further. Sorry to write things that are upsetting to you.

I am sincere. I am not trying to be upsetting anyone during this emergency. I'm just stating that I'd bet there are some mighty smart folks working on this one and that they might know a heck of a bit more than we do.

Anyway, I was mostly interested in providing those links for folks to get information if they come here thinking that we have such links prepared for our members and guests that are living in Japan or maybe visiting. Sites like this can be helpful in emergencies. And I have provided two links to NHK sites and one to a ministry and so I have made my contribution, I think.

But I suppose the neutral stance isn't so popular around here and I should scoot off for a bit.

Please take care.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

But I suppose the neutral stance isn't so popular around here and I should scoot off for a bit.

Your stance is far from neutral. You are trusting people you don't even know exist, certainly cannot name or quote, while posting a pro-government, pro-elitist diatribe. And all that while completely ignoring an article with names and quotes.

So I am making presumptions -- like maybe our leaders aren't all stupid and can handle a social emergency like we are facing right now on this planet.

You seem to have self-righteousness, selfishness, over-focus on one's area of expertise (in this case politics), and even evil confused with "stupid".

Plus you doggedly dismiss the idea that the only emergency here is man-made, and as such, is already mismanaged. This is damage control from Abe. Its political. And there is no global emergency over a damned cold virus. The global emergency is the hysteria over a cold virus. Do you even have any clue how many people have died from flu in the U.S. already? That's not corona. The over-whelming majority of the deaths from corona have been in PRC and I feel very comfortable blaming that fact on government mismanagement/over-reaction and poor conditions in PRC.

Oh, I might be wrong about some things but at least I am basing my conclusions on a hell of a lot more than presumptions of politicians actually caring about the people.

 

[Lothor]

Both you and TGI-ECT are putting a lot of input into this thread and providing information for others to read and judge as they see fit, and thanks for doing so. Please don't turn this into an argument.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Interesting to think about but I don't think I have ever seen a specific cold or flu virus tracked globally with so much attention in all my life. But the results do not seem all that new or surprising to me. A word like "virulent" was coined long before such hardcore tracking with daily updates. Corona is just spreading like a cold! Its spreading just like could be expected!

I am a bit surprised by the number of deaths in Italy and Iran....but I don't have much information on those deaths, such as where they died and how old they were or even if its been determined the exact symptom that killed them. But I am thinking old, already sick, already in a hospital and it was pneumonia. And given that, I would easily place blame on poor sanitary practice in those hospitals, which I actually think is pretty universal. Hospitals need better protocols...that's what I take away from this.

 

[Lothor]

Interesting to think about but I don't think I have ever seen a specific cold or flu virus tracked globally with so much attention in all my life. But the results do not seem all that new or surprising to me. A word like "virulent" was coined long before such hardcore tracking with daily updates. Corona is just spreading like a cold! Its spreading just like could be expected!

I am a bit surprised by the number of deaths in Italy and Iran....but I don't have much information on those deaths, such as where they died and how old they were or even if its been determined the exact symptom that killed them. But I am thinking old, already sick, already in a hospital and it was pneumonia. And given that, I would easily place blame on poor sanitary practice in those hospitals, which I actually think is pretty universal. Hospitals need better protocols...that's what I take away from this.

The number of people seriously ill and dying in both countries seems to be relatively high compared with the number of cases, which makes me wonder if there is a more virulent strain there - or as you said, it could be hospital conditions or even a large number of mild cases not yet detected.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

The number of people seriously ill and dying in both countries seems to be relatively high compared with the number of cases, which makes me wonder if there is a more virulent strain there - or as you said, it could be hospital conditions or even a large number of mild cases not yet detected.

I had always believed the word "virulent" to mean something that spreads quickly only. You are using it to mean deadly or extreme. I had assumed that to be incorrect. But according to web dictionaries they are both correct....making the word almost meaningless. Glad I did not call anyone on it before checking. Anyway, I think I will be cutting it from my personal dictionary.

WHO still puts the death rate at 2 percent. But lets remember those getting it with mild symptoms are not even going to the hospital. Those who are in serious condition are definitely going to the hospital. Having lower than actual numbers of infected will make the death rate seem more than it really is.

 

[Davey]

One of the questions is: if you would get a fever and a cough in the upcoming days, would you go to the doctor?

 

[Mark of Zorro]

One of the questions is: if you would get a fever and a cough in the upcoming days, would you go to the doctor?

I have been asking myself that very question lately. As it stands now, I probably would. But if there are more cases in my area, I might not. I would contact a lot of people about my condition and I would probably get one of them to get some supplies from the store and then get ready to slug it out by myself. I would spend a lot of time in hot baths to keep super hydrated. I would be eating a lot of fresh fruit and vegetables as well as spinach and lettuce. Also onions and garlic. Drinking lots of mineral water. And getting lots of sleep. My main concern with staying at home alone is cytokine storm, although all the info I have on that is sketchy. But I guess I fear mismanagement and bad protocols at hospitals more, and if there are more cases of corona virus in my area, I think the odds of mismanagement and the effect of bad protocols will go up.

If I were older though I would go to the hospital regardless. I am nearing the age where I could not take care of myself while sick. Getting old sucks even without corona. But the point is, my personal situation dictates my decision more than concern about the virus itself; living alone and no longer young...those are key.

 

[SomeCallMeChris]

"There is some limited evidence that school closings do reduce seasonal influenza transmission (Heymann et al., 2004), and it is assumed—although but not proven—that other limits on social mixing also slow the spread of respiratory disease (World Health Organization Writing Group, 2006). Thus societies faced with pandemics have often closed public places (schools,8​ childcare, workplaces, mass transit) and cancelled public events (sports, arts, conferences). "

Strategies for Disease Containment - Ethical and Legal Considerations in Mitigating Pandemic Disease - NCBI Bookshelf

Schools are absolutely ideal for disease transmission - many people in close proximity, with underdeveloped immune systems (young people haven't been alive long enough to have been exposed to many seasons of virus variations), and of course, getting young people to follow best hygiene practices is even harder than with people in general. While those young people will have to be somewhere and continue to pose some risks, they are unlikely to be crowded together in equally large numbers while schools are closed.

I don't disagree that the school closings appear to be poorly planned and executed, and will put a sudden and unexpected burden on many parents... but they aren't a pointless gesture either, and are in fact, fairly standard practice.

I think permanent containment is impossible, but slowing the spread of the disease will spread out the stress on the health care system as the disease works its way through the population.

if you would get a fever and a cough in the upcoming days, would you go to the doctor?

Honestly, you should not if you don't have severe symptoms and are not part of a vulnerable population. For healthy people, it's likely just a severe cold, and the health care systems are going to be severely stressed. That said, pneumonia can be dangerous and is best treated early, so if you are having breathing difficulties then by all means seek help, regardless of the level of your fever or how good your health normally is.

 

[okinawaholic]

I wish I could find the article now, as it seems more relevant than ever, but Abe is proposing some form of "child support" to those parents who are affected by the school closures because they have work. I asked my wife if we could get some of that, jokingly, but we don't qualify.

So, that's a plus for schools closing.

As far as schools closing in general: I was all for it. In Okinawa , it's more common for the children to be watched by their grandparents (and they get older here) after school. I don't know if that's the case in Mainland or not, but, it makes for a compelling argument to follow Abe's guidance here, and, Okinawa will.

Even though the data suggests that kids can't get sick, the (mis)handling of this by the government is what leads me to believe that schools, along with elderly homes, should be closed early until Japan can get a handle of the situation like what appears to have happened with China in Wuhan. We all should know that it will require a 4-day period in order to even get checked, and, some patients are still turned away from testing/treatment because they don't qualify for whatever reason. Knowing that alone makes me uneasy about the Japanese numbers, which is why I fully support the closure.

The reason why I support it is simple: Even though kids are less apt at getting sick/contracting it, they can still carry it, and I don't mean within their bodies. A sick parent that prepares their laundry and school supplies for the next day could easily transmit it from their kid to multiple other kids their kid has contact with as it can last on a surface for up to 9 days. Then all kids go home and those surfaces are touched by the elderly, who are more susceptible to getting sick by touching the same surfaces (think, backpacks, pencil holders, etc. if not clothes alone).

Social distancing is a must-have in order to get it under control and at bay long enough for a vaccine to be prepared.

On another topic, the hoarding of toilet paper in a country that has bidets in pretty much every bathroom is what gets to me. Even though the rumor mill took a day or two to get here for the tissue, it began. As such, families are limited to one 4 pack of toilet paper per purchase (I don't know how stores are handling that as it looks like they're still selling out).

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I gave SomeCallMeChris's post a thumbs up, not because I agree, but because he is at least forming an argument and providing sources. However, I note that it is easier to provide proof for effectiveness than ineffectiveness because proving ineffectiveness starts skirting the realm of "prove a negative". But I did find this:

Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all

But it all rides on just how infectious this is. And I am shocked at the lack of data we have on such a question, and others, so much so that this feels even more like a psy-op now....a psy-op to see how easily manipulated people are by such news and what their reactions will be. I am not saying the virus is imaginary or even engineered or even intentionally released...I tend to go for the opportunism angle. Although I do not discount possible spontaneous hysteria, foolishness and other opportunism (such as gathering media clicks), the dearth of clear information really makes me feel like this whole thing was possibly pimped by someone intending it to snowball.

Now you may point to all the deaths in Wuhan as proof that it wasn't pimped, but I believe over-reactions cause mismanagement and mismanagement leads to mistakes that can be deadly.....for example someone who believes he is looking at the next plague, working over-time to analyze and assist patients, actually increasing the viral load of said patients and his own, creating a condition and image that would not exist if he had simply treated it like any other cold virus (though its still special for causing pneumonia).

Also I read that over 5000 died the last three months in the U.S. alone from flu, so why still so very much focus on Covid 19??

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Sadly I don't think we will ever know the real answer to the question of if closing schools helped or harmed as we have no actual control group for this "experiment". Even if numbers go up rapidly, it could be from some completely separate reason, such as panic and people working and shopping still. If they go down rapidly it could be for the warm weather and general state of caution. We may never know. But I remain against it and find it ineffective at best and detrimental at worst.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

And a note about re-infection: its just another detail I can get the goods on. I think anybody can get basically the same cold again, correct me if I am wrong. Antibodies are no guarantee, just a big help. So a few re-infections is no surprise to me at all.

But if its re-infection rate is so very high, guess what? Vaccines are going to be almost completely useless.

 

[Lothor]

I gave SomeCallMeChris's post a thumbs up, not because I agree, but because he is at least forming an argument and providing sources. However, I note that it is easier to provide proof for effectiveness than ineffectiveness because proving ineffectiveness starts skirting the realm of "prove a negative". But I did find this:

Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all

But it all rides on just how infectious this is. And I am shocked at the lack of data we have on such a question, and others, so much so that this feels even more like a psy-op now....a psy-op to see how easily manipulated people are by such news and what their reactions will be. I am not saying the virus is imaginary or even engineered or even intentionally released...I tend to go for the opportunism angle. Although I do not discount possible spontaneous hysteria, foolishness and other opportunism (such as gathering media clicks), the dearth of clear information really makes me feel like this whole thing was possibly pimped by someone intending it to snowball.

Now you may point to all the deaths in Wuhan as proof that it wasn't pimped, but I believe over-reactions cause mismanagement and mismanagement leads to mistakes that can be deadly.....for example someone who believes he is looking at the next plague, working over-time to analyze and assist patients, actually increasing the viral load of said patients and his own, creating a condition and image that would not exist if he had simply treated it like any other cold virus (though its still special for causing pneumonia).

Also I read that over 5000 died the last three months in the U.S. alone from flu, so why still so very much focus on Covid 19??

Interesting article, but you seem to be drawing slightly different conclusions from it from those stated in the summary. They defined effectiveness in terms of economic cost and concluded that if you want to minimise economic cost, either go for strict measures Wuhan style or don't bother; keep the schools and Disneyland open, and carry on as normal. But your use of the word effectiveness seems to refer to the spread of the virus, and it's difficult to conclude on the basis of common sense (not always the best way to conclude things) that partial measures will be better than no measures. Indeed, the small number of cases of ordinary influenza in Japan suggests that measures have some effect.

By the way, nitpicking the wording in people's scientific arguments is a large part of my job.

 

[TGI-ECT]

How Does the Coronavirus Compare With the Flu?

As new cases appear in the U.S., some — including the president — have compared it to the seasonal flu. Here’s a close look at the differences.

www.nytimes.com

I had a feeling we would see the following sort of work from Ms. Denise Grady, and it seems these days a popular style is a mutli-narrative hook in the lede and that also seems to be allowing for a lengthy lede, so I hope I'll be excused for just adding all of it here. It seems to reflect some of that which Mark of Zorro is also placing before us in some exclamation of views in the areas that might fall under 'why' so much coverage of this subject by the media players around the world.

. . . . . <> <> <> Copy Starts <> <> <>

Is this new coronavirus really a serious danger? Doesn't the flu kill more people?

As the United States recorded its first coronavirus death on Saturday — and as other cases popped up in people without known risks on the West Coast — Americans wondered how to measure this new threat against a more familiar foe: influenza.

President Trump, a self-described germophobe, said on Wednesday he was amazed to learn that tens of thousands of Americans died from the flu each year, contrasting that number with the 60 or so known to be infected with the coronavirus. On Friday, Mr. Trump accused the news media and Democrats of exaggerating the dangers of the virus.

"The flu kills people," Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff, said on Wednesday. "This is not Ebola. It's not SARS, it's not MERS. It's not a death sentence."

To many public health officials, that argument misses the point.

Yes, the flu is terrible — that's exactly why scientists don't want another contagious respiratory disease to take root. If they could stop the seasonal flu, they would. But there may yet be a chance to stop the coronavirus.

In many ways, the flu is the best argument for throwing everything at the coronavirus. Here's a closer look at the similarities and differences.

. . . . . <> <> <> Copy Ends <> <> <>

But please let me be clear that Ms. Grady went into a lot of detail in her piece and please use the link above to read all she has contributed with this article as part of the New York Times' coverage.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Interesting article, but you seem to be drawing slightly different conclusions from it from those stated in the summary. They defined effectiveness in terms of economic cost and concluded that if you want to minimise economic cost, either go for strict measures Wuhan style or don't bother; keep the schools and Disneyland open, and carry on as normal. But your use of the word effectiveness seems to refer to the spread of the virus, and it's difficult to conclude on the basis of common sense (not always the best way to conclude things) that partial measures will be better than no measures. Indeed, the small number of cases of ordinary influenza in Japan suggests that measures have some effect.

By the way, nitpicking the wording in people's scientific arguments is a large part of my job.

I thought it was including both. Nope,you are right. That was a worthless link. Sorry about that.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

This one is on target: Individual preventive social distancing during an epidemic may have negative population-level outcomes


"However, the aim of our paper is to show, in a theoretical context, that rational individual-level preventive measures can have counterintuitive consequences for the population-level. Public health interventions that aim at changing individual behaviour through social distancing could have adverse consequences, for example, school closures could reduce social contacts between children in the school classes but may (partly) be replaced by social contacts outside of school. But similarly, these measures could be beneficial for the population. As our results show, it is not necessarily straightforward what effects such behaviour may have at the population level, where much may depend on the disease and population under consideration. "

 

[Mark of Zorro]

the following quote from the article: In many ways, the flu is the best argument for throwing everything at the coronavirus.

And I suppose, the baby out with the bathwater. Old people have to die eventually. The way some people talk, its better for them to die of starvation in an economic shut down created to thwart the flu...along with children. But hey, anything to guarantee an 80 year old get another month of life.

I wish we could be sure of getting all the facts about what has been happening in Wuhan. So many extreme measures....so little winning.