Population Drop

[Buntaro]

I just saw a horrifying statistic. By the end of this century, Japan's population will be half of what it is now. Half!

 

[thomas]

No more congestion on public transportation! Increasing immigration will partly compensate for the demographic decline. What's scary is that most of the population will continue to live in Greater Tokyo, while outlying rural regions will effectively depopulate.

The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimates that Japan's population will shrink to 63 million, about half the current level, in 2100 and that people aged 65 or older will account for about 40% of that.

Population must stabilize by 2100 at 80 million, group warns | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

Forecasts vary a lot:

Projected Population (in millions) – 2020 to 2100

Country	2020	2030	2050	2100	Trend
China	1,439	1,402	1,316	766	Sharp decline
India	1,380	1,515	1,668	1,529	Growth, then slight decline
USA	331	355	375	394	Moderate growth
Russia	146	139	126	112	Long-term decline
Japan	126	119	105	75	Severe depopulation
Germany	83	83	79	73	Slow decline
Brazil	213	228	231	181	Peaking before decline
South Korea	52	50	46	39	Steady decline
Italy	60	58	52	35	Significant decline
France	65	67	69	68	Stable
UK	68	70	73	71	Stable growth
Nigeria	206	264	401	546	Explosive growth
Mexico	128	139	144	127	Mild decline

 

[Ukigumo]

I often think about the reasons why Japanese (and other nation's) people decide not to procreate. I think it's financial; raising children is hugely expensive especially if you include higher education costs. One has to look after them which either means reducing one's working hours (financial hit) or paying someone else to perform this chore (financial hit). The salary of some parents in the UK for example goes, in its entirety, to paying nursery fees.

Then there's the emotional aspect; worrying about their health, their mental well-being. Are they mixing with the wrong types of people who might lead them into a life of enjoying sports on TV or worse, studying the liberal arts at university? Will they become teenage mothers, drug addicts or gang members? Will the parent even like their children as people, sharing the same values and pleasures? Many parents say it'll be nice to have someone to look after them when they're old, but children have a habit of moving away, sometimes to other countries and begrudgingly see their parents once a year.

Why would you take all these risks and give up one's own life for this kind of worry? When I ask this of my friends who have children, they say things like, "Oh the feeling when they first clutch your finger as a baby is just amazing!" Is it? Is it so amazing as to risk the worry of all the above? Get a cat/dog, instead.

As Captain Jean-Luc Picard once said of children, "They are demanding, distracting and interfere with duty and pleasure alike."

 

[mdchachi]

We all need purpose. Parenting is one thing that can make one's life worthwhile and, dare I say, happy. It is scary though. I think about my friend who lost his daughter in a school shooting a lot.
Is this true?
"'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all."
I think probably so but the situation is so incredibly painful.

 

[Grandpa Frank]

Because I grew up poor , I wanted to wait till I could afford kids. By the time I found a house and cars , I was in debt big time. So by the time I felt OK money wise , I was in my early 50's and felt too old to have kids. It didn't bother me not to have kids , but now I wish I had grandkids and someone to pass things down to. It seems money worries have always controlled my life.

 

[Ukigumo]

We all need purpose. Parenting is one thing that can make one's life worthwhile and, dare I say, happy. It is scary though. I think about my friend who lost his daughter in a school shooting a lot.

I think quite the opposite. I think having children distracts you from the meaninglessness of life -and I mean that in the positive nihilistic sense, we're alive despite astronomically minute odds, so make the very most of this brief, wonderful moment of consciousness because only oblivion awaits afterwards; does one remember what it was like before one was born? Death is the same. Many people find that disturbing and creating a sense of purpose (children are the absolute easiest, but it could be amassing unbelievable wealth or attempting to find cures for diseases etc) or rather, distracting themselves from the end point assuages their fear.

Is this true?
"'Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all."
I think probably so but the situation is so incredibly painful.

These are words to give our pain some worth, but it's still just pain!

My niece was the youngest victim of stomach/oesophageal cancer (17) and my brother's family will never recover from that.

 

[Ukigumo]

Because I grew up poor , I wanted to wait till I could afford kids. By the time I found a house and cars , I was in debt big time. So by the time I felt OK money wise , I was in my early 50's and felt too old to have kids. It didn't bother me not to have kids , but now I wish I had grandkids and someone to pass things down to. It seems money worries have always controlled my life.

I'm so sorry to hear this.

I feel much richer for not having children, in every sense of the word. The time my friends spent driving their kids to football practise/horse riding/gymnastics classes (taxi service) or doing extra shifts to fund those activities or buying a bigger house for their progeny, I spent learning, teaching, practicing swordsmanship. I had the time and resources to teach myself enough maths to get a good grasp of things like Relativity and a bit of Quantum mechanics and to marvel at the complexity of universe as well as my career as a neuroscientist and trying to fathom things like consciousness (!), practice zazen, accumulate enough wealth for my early (54 years old) retirement (that last one was a bit of a double-edged sword. Work also gives one a (false) sense of worth!).

I think many young people have these types of thought and are hoping to make similar plans and having children scuppers those desires because of the financial hit they create for very little or no return! If one is very wealthy then yes, absolutely have dozens of kids like Musk and Boris Johnson. But if you live hand to mouth, then it becomes very hard.

 

[salyavin]

I think this Kurzgesagt video about South Korea largely applies to Japan.



One concern I have is elder car and even national pension (like social security but in Japan or Korea) if the decline is too fast. For Japan I am also concerned about the continued concentration of people in Tokyo as well.

 

[mdchachi]

I'm so sorry to hear this.

I feel much richer for not having children, in every sense of the word. The time my friends spent driving their kids to football practise/horse riding/gymnastics classes (taxi service) or doing extra shifts to fund those activities or buying a bigger house for their progeny, I spent learning, teaching, practicing swordsmanship. I had the time and resources to teach myself enough maths to get a good grasp of things like Relativity and a bit of Quantum mechanics and to marvel at the complexity of universe as well as my career as a neuroscientist and trying to fathom things like consciousness (!), practice zazen, accumulate enough wealth for my early (54 years old) retirement (that last one was a bit of a double-edged sword. Work also gives one a (false) sense of worth!).

I think many young people have these types of thought and are hoping to make similar plans and having children scuppers those desires because of the financial hit they create for very little or no return! If one is very wealthy then yes, absolutely have dozens of kids like Musk and Boris Johnson. But if you live hand to mouth, then it becomes very hard.

I would say you're the exception. Most people who are childfree and have all this extra time won't spend it so productively. The average person will consume a lot of TV, or beer, or work or whatever and not really have many accomplishments to point to at the end of it all except perhaps a basement full of "collectibles." I'd also say if you had had children you'd probably still been quite ambitious and productive and achieved most of these things given the nature of who you are.

 

[Ukigumo]

I would say you're the exception. Most people who are childfree and have all this extra time won't spend it so productively. The average person will consume a lot of TV, or beer, or work or whatever and not really have many accomplishments to point to at the end of it all except perhaps a basement full of "collectibles." I'd also say if you had had children you'd probably still been quite ambitious and productive and achieved most of these things given the nature of who you are.

Oh I watch a lot of TV (youtube) have collections of stuff (otherwise the taxman will take the money off me) but don't drink often!

My partner is Burmese and among her community (admittedly most medical doctors) having children is not a priority after marriage. Very few in actual fact do have children many just being married or at most having one child. I asked her if this was a social norm in Myanmar and she said career is the main priority and if anything might hinder that journey to the top, it will be avoided.