[V-stem]+そう for intransitive verbs

As for intransitive verbs that describes a change of state such as 倒れる, 落ちる, 死ぬ, if we combine their stem with そう (倒れそう) does it mean "It is about to fall, based on what i know" or "it is about to fall, based on what i can see, feel, taste, etc" ?

If now the tree is nowhere near me (so i couldn't possibly say "based on what i see the tree is about to fall"), can i say あの木が倒れそうだ to mean "hey you know that tree (that we both know) is about to fall"

Conversely, if its an intransitive verb that does not describe a change of state such as 歩く, 晴れる, 勝つ, is it true to say that 歩きそうだ can only mean "it looks like its walking, based on what i see, feel, taste, etc" and cannot mean "it looks like its walking, based on what i know" ?

So if now I'm nowhere near Bob, and Bob is about to win some game / torunament, is it true to say that i cannot say ボブは勝ちそうだ?

(sorry if its abit unclear)

pacerier said:

As for intransitive verbs that describes a change of state such as 倒れる, 落ちる, 死ぬ, if we combine their stem with そう (倒れそう) does it mean "It is about to fall, based on what i know" or "it is about to fall, based on what i can see, feel, taste, etc" ?

If now the tree is nowhere near me (so i couldn't possibly say "based on what i see the tree is about to fall"), can i say あの木が倒れそうだ to mean "hey you know that tree (that we both know) is about to fall"

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It depends how close are you talking about. Does it appear ready to topple at any moment ? Or still straight but leaning far enough to appear to be just on the point of collapse ? If it is a situation of immediate shift or immanent change, similar to English you wouldn't normally say "about to" without knowing anything that has already happened.

in other words, if i had done some research and came to the conclusion that the tree is going to fall in 5 minutes, can i say あの木が倒れそうだ to mean "the tree is about to fall (based on my research and not based on my sight)"? (let's say i'm in america and the person whom i am talking to right now (through the phone) is in japan, and the tree that we are both talking about is in japan too)