Senate panel eyes Japan nuke option to press China on N. Korea test
Saturday May 21, 7:05 AM
(Kyodo) _ U.S. policymakers should highlight Japan's possible nuclear pursuit and other security repercussions for China in pressing Beijing to stop North Korea from testing its nuclear weapons, a Senate Republican policy panel said in a recent report.
"A test in North Korea would certainly raise the prospect of a major public debate in Japan over whether to turn its latent nuclear capabilities in its civilian and space sectors into an overt nuclear weapons program," the U.S. Senate Republican Policy Committee said in the report distributed to senators this week.
While also pointing out various other "far-reaching" effects on the security and political dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, the panel said, "It's not too late to avert a North Korean nuclear test. However, the key to preventing a nuclear test lies primarily on China."
As a paramount policy option, the United States must "essentially" demand that China "make a choice: either help out or face the possibility of other nuclear neighbors," according to the report, a copy of which was obtained by Kyodo News.
"Helping the United States would include participating fully in the quarantine of North Korea, tolerating Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese missile defense programs, and doing nothing to pressure the South Koreans to agree to a confederation with North Korea," the panel said.
The six-page report emphasizes China's role in hammering out policy options for the United States after assessing possible national reactions in the Asia-Pacific region and various scenarios if North Korea goes ahead with its recently reported plan to carry out a nuclear test.
President George W. Bush's Republican allies in the Senate compiled the report at a time when the Bush administration has also repeatedly urged China to step up its influence on North Korea to return to the stalled six-party talks on its nuclear ambitions. The talks also involve Japan, South Korea and Russia.
"Resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis immediately and peacefully is a clear test for China," the panel said.
As one of the three scenarios, the panel said the U.S. officials will explain a "mutually beneficial outcome" to China.
"For China, such an outcome might include U.S. restraint on Japan's and Taiwan's nuclear ambitions," the panel said. But U.S. policymakers "would then note that, should China not agree to help resolve the nuclear crisis in this manner, the United States may not be able to restrain nuclear proliferation efforts within the region as much as it may like to."
"Clearly for the United States, the positive outcome would be the dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear program and, ideally, the end of the Kim Jong Il regime," the panel said.
The second scenario envisions the development of an "alliance system" of Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, Japan and other democracies in East Asia to counter North Korea.
While China will likely not welcome such an alliance, its development or even discussions would force Beijing to "decide if it wanted to be helpful in resolving the North Korean crisis," the panel said.
In the other scenario on global acceptance of North Korea as a new nuclear power, the panel warned that it would be interpreted by Iran, Syria and other "rogue" states, as well as countries such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Brazil that the pursuit of a nuclear weapons program would not be opposed, leading to "dramatic consequences" for U.S. national security.
As for national reactions in the United States, U.S. policymakers have initial options of enhancing diplomatic discussions through the six-party talks, introducing a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Pyongyang, and applying economic sanctions and possibly a naval blockade against North Korea, the panel said.
While accelerating missile defense cooperation with its allies, the United States is expected to expand its permanently stationed forces at sea and land, including possible nuclear deployments, the panel said.
"U.S. forces likely would be put on a higher alert, prepared to respond to any sign of North Korean aggression, perhaps even preemptively," it said.
South Korea may build up its military by buying more weapons from the United States, but could also move toward arranging a "confederation" with North Korea in leading Seoul to ask U.S. forces to leave, the panel said.
Against this backdrop, the United States should encourage Japan and South Korea to mend their recently soured ties and make a joint announcement stating their desire to find a "mutually acceptable solution to the nuclear crisis" and their assurance of not seeking nuclear weapons.
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/050520/kyodo/d8a76qco0.html
Saturday May 21, 7:05 AM
(Kyodo) _ U.S. policymakers should highlight Japan's possible nuclear pursuit and other security repercussions for China in pressing Beijing to stop North Korea from testing its nuclear weapons, a Senate Republican policy panel said in a recent report.
"A test in North Korea would certainly raise the prospect of a major public debate in Japan over whether to turn its latent nuclear capabilities in its civilian and space sectors into an overt nuclear weapons program," the U.S. Senate Republican Policy Committee said in the report distributed to senators this week.
While also pointing out various other "far-reaching" effects on the security and political dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, the panel said, "It's not too late to avert a North Korean nuclear test. However, the key to preventing a nuclear test lies primarily on China."
As a paramount policy option, the United States must "essentially" demand that China "make a choice: either help out or face the possibility of other nuclear neighbors," according to the report, a copy of which was obtained by Kyodo News.
"Helping the United States would include participating fully in the quarantine of North Korea, tolerating Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese missile defense programs, and doing nothing to pressure the South Koreans to agree to a confederation with North Korea," the panel said.
The six-page report emphasizes China's role in hammering out policy options for the United States after assessing possible national reactions in the Asia-Pacific region and various scenarios if North Korea goes ahead with its recently reported plan to carry out a nuclear test.
President George W. Bush's Republican allies in the Senate compiled the report at a time when the Bush administration has also repeatedly urged China to step up its influence on North Korea to return to the stalled six-party talks on its nuclear ambitions. The talks also involve Japan, South Korea and Russia.
"Resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis immediately and peacefully is a clear test for China," the panel said.
As one of the three scenarios, the panel said the U.S. officials will explain a "mutually beneficial outcome" to China.
"For China, such an outcome might include U.S. restraint on Japan's and Taiwan's nuclear ambitions," the panel said. But U.S. policymakers "would then note that, should China not agree to help resolve the nuclear crisis in this manner, the United States may not be able to restrain nuclear proliferation efforts within the region as much as it may like to."
"Clearly for the United States, the positive outcome would be the dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear program and, ideally, the end of the Kim Jong Il regime," the panel said.
The second scenario envisions the development of an "alliance system" of Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, Japan and other democracies in East Asia to counter North Korea.
While China will likely not welcome such an alliance, its development or even discussions would force Beijing to "decide if it wanted to be helpful in resolving the North Korean crisis," the panel said.
In the other scenario on global acceptance of North Korea as a new nuclear power, the panel warned that it would be interpreted by Iran, Syria and other "rogue" states, as well as countries such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Brazil that the pursuit of a nuclear weapons program would not be opposed, leading to "dramatic consequences" for U.S. national security.
As for national reactions in the United States, U.S. policymakers have initial options of enhancing diplomatic discussions through the six-party talks, introducing a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Pyongyang, and applying economic sanctions and possibly a naval blockade against North Korea, the panel said.
While accelerating missile defense cooperation with its allies, the United States is expected to expand its permanently stationed forces at sea and land, including possible nuclear deployments, the panel said.
"U.S. forces likely would be put on a higher alert, prepared to respond to any sign of North Korean aggression, perhaps even preemptively," it said.
South Korea may build up its military by buying more weapons from the United States, but could also move toward arranging a "confederation" with North Korea in leading Seoul to ask U.S. forces to leave, the panel said.
Against this backdrop, the United States should encourage Japan and South Korea to mend their recently soured ties and make a joint announcement stating their desire to find a "mutually acceptable solution to the nuclear crisis" and their assurance of not seeking nuclear weapons.
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/050520/kyodo/d8a76qco0.html
