Politics How likely is an LDP fragmentation?

Since its creation in 1955, the LDP has been the dominant force in Japanese politics, either governing outright or leading ruling coalitions. That dominance has now been shaken. After losing control of both houses of parliament in the recent Lower House election in October and the Upper House contest last month, the LDP governs only with the support of its coalition partner, Komeitō, effectively leaving it as a minority administration.



The setback comes at a moment when smaller, more ideologically consistent parties are gaining ground with voters. This has fuelled calls from some critics for the LDP to split, since it remains an uneasy alliance of liberals and conservatives rather than a cohesive movement. On 10 August, Toru Hashimoto, co-founder of Nippon Ishin no Kai and now a political commentator, argued that former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi ought to gather fellow hawkish conservatives and form a separate party. However, he added he was doubtful she would take such a step.

The right-wing Takaichi is a rival of the more moderate Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. She lost to him in the deciding round of last year's LDP presidential election and has since been a critic of his leadership. Two days after Hashimoto's remarks, on 12 August, Takaichi responded to him on the social media platform X, saying she would not quit the LDP and indicated that she would continue to change the party from the inside. One of the secrets to the LDP's longevity is that it's a catch-all party, a collection of members with different, and sometimes clashing, political views who are nevertheless able to compromise and unite under the banner of a single party. But smaller opposition parties that are less diverse and more philosophically united, such as the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito, have recently made inroads with younger voters, especially in urban areas.

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Kentaro Yamamoto, a political scientist at Tokyo's Kokugakuin University, noted that even if Takaichi Sanae had assured Hashimoto Toru she would not leave the party, the split between the LDP's right wing and the rest of the organisation now appeared wider than ever. In his view, this made it increasingly difficult to reconcile the factions and restore the LDP to the broad, politically effective force it once was. Yamamoto observed that the LDP struggled to meet the needs of many voters precisely because it was trying to function as a catch-all party. To maintain that role, he argued, it had to accommodate a wide range of interests, which in practice meant adopting policies mild enough to satisfy all sides but often too weak to bring about meaningful improvements in people's lives.

He also pointed out that opposition parties faced their own limitations: most had little experience of governing, which left them ill-equipped to challenge the LDP's long-standing dominance or to build the kind of broad membership base the ruling party had sustained over its seventy-year history.

JT, of all Japanese media, now asked the same question:

Whoever wins the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election on Oct. 4 will face many challenges, the first being how to repair a party deeply divided and unpopular with voters. But with the LDP now ruling as a minority government, it's not clear if anyone can put the party back together again — raising questions about whether, after seven decades, it's finally time for the LDP to split into smaller, but more unified, parties.

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Political commentator Tetsuo Suzuki noted that in earlier times, when a prime minister from one faction lost public support, the Liberal Democratic Party often responded by selecting a leader from another faction who was considered more appealing to the public. He suggested that this practice had functioned almost like a change of government, while still preserving backing for the party as a whole.

In its review of the recent Upper House election defeat, the LDP indicated that it had failed to address voter concerns, particularly among younger conservatives, properly, and that newer, smaller parties such as the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito had gained influence with their simple, direct slogans.

In its review, the party argued that it needed to reorganise and made a point of highlighting unity, solidarity, and a respect for differing views. It said it had no intention of narrowing its focus to single issues or competing on minor points, but wanted instead to hold on to a solid majority by staying connected with the broader public.

Suzuki remarked that the real test for the LDP was whether it could keep its internal differences in check while still allowing space for diverse opinions. He cautioned that rivalry between leadership candidates on ideological grounds could further weaken public confidence, but added that the upcoming leadership race might also open the door to a clear turning point, perhaps even a split that would finally settle old disputes.