But experts are wary the sixth wave will be worse than the fifth. The central government is also assuming it will have double the infectivity of the delta-fueled fifth wave. Sixth wave preparations include creating a system by the end of November that can ensure 37,000 patients, 30% more than in the fifth wave, can be hospitalized. Amid this, predictions by an AI developed by Professor Akimasa Hirata's team at Nagoya Institute of Technology are attracting attention. To make the estimate, the team made the AI memorize vaccine efficacy, past outbreaks' cycles, the schedule of major vacations in Japan and other factors. For Tokyo, the AI predicted that new daily infection cases would continue to be 50 or less for the rest of the year, with increases starting around the end of 2021 due to year-end parties and people returning to their hometowns. Even so, it estimated the peak would be 370 in mid-January 2022.
The move, which takes effect Saturday, comes amid mounting concerns over the spread of a coronavirus variant known as B.1.1.529, which infectious disease experts warn could be more contagious than previous strains or render existing vaccines less effective. Britain has temporarily suspended all flights from the six countries in southern Africa, and the World Health Organization has called a special meeting to discuss the variant. After leaving the government-designated facility, travelers from South Africa and the nearby countries will need to spend a further four days in quarantine at home to ensure they are not infected. Previously, they would have been allowed to spend all 14 days at home.
needs some sakeI guess it will never end.View attachment 83488
| 01/12 (Wed) | 02/12 (Thu) | 03/12 (Fri) | 04/12 (Sat) | 05/12 (Son) | 06/12 (Mon) | 07/12 (Tue) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
121 (+ 44) | 127 (+ 8) | 145 (+ 24) | 131 (+ 5) | 115 (+ 42) | 60 (- 22) | 115 (- 17) |
| 01/12 (Wed) | 02/12 (Thu) | 03/12 (Fri) | 04/12 (Sat) | 05/12 (Son) | 06/12 (Mon) | 07/12 (Tue) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 (- 1) | 1 (- 1) | 1 (+- 0) | 0 (- 4) | 0 (- 1) | 1 (+ 1) | 2 (+ 1) |
| 01/12 (Wed) | 02/12 (Thu) | 03/12 (Fri) | 04/12 (Sat) | 05/12 (Son) | 06/12 (Mon) | 07/12 (Tue) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
43 (- 15) | 38 (- 20) | 32 (- 19) | 28 (- 22) | 29 (- 14) | 29 (- 14) | 28 (- 13) |
All eight entered Japan from late November to early this month, according to a government official. Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara said two of the eight people are close contacts of the first case of the variant confirmed in Japan -- a person who arrived from Namibia late last month -- while declining to give further details.
Humans have two types of adaptive immune systems that fend off pathogens based on memory from past infections with seasonal coronaviruses, a group of viruses that includes ones that causes the common cold, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Natural antibodies work as a first line of defense against the pathogens. Then, when a virus enters the body, the other defense mechanism — a powerful immune response composed of T cells inside white blood cells that bind to and kill infected cells — kicks in. The key to preventing serious COVID-19 cases is activated T cells and that's where human leukocyte antigen (HLA) comes in. This complex set of genes helps T cells identify infected cells in order to destroy them. A human body contains tens of thousands of HLAs and each individual has multiple HLA types, which are genetically inherited. Until now, research into HLA types and their relationship with the COVID-19 virus had been conducted mainly on people in Europe and the U.S., and it had remained unclear whether the memory T cells from past cold infections would reawaken T cells and trigger a "cross immunity" to kill the virus that causes COVID-19 and its variants.
Japanese people have distinct HLA that confers immune resistance to CoV2.
Genome‐wide association studies (GWAS) conducted on disease susceptibility show that HLA is usually the top locus associated with disease. This is true for infectious diseases, autoimmunity, or neurological disorders. HLA stands for human leukocyte antigen and is also known as MHC, or major histocompatibility complex. These genes encode for proteins that present antigenic peptides to T cells. HLA class I presents antigenic peptides to CD8 T cells, while HLA class II presents peptides to CD4 T cells. HLA genes are the most highly polymorphic genes in the human genome. The variety in HLA enables our immune system to survey for maximal number of antigen peptides that are present in pathogens, so as to elicit robust cellular immune responses. Previous studies have identified HLA‐B*4601 to be associated with higher risk of developing SARS disease (Lin et al, 2003), based on a small number of cases. However, whether there are any HLA alleles that confer resistance to COVID‐19 and whether the allele frequency is higher in the Japanese population are unknown.
According to the health ministry, the estimated number of flu patients between September 2020 and February this year stood at around 14,000, far below the usual levels of 10 million to 20 million. The 2020-2021 figure compares to around 7,285,000 patients in the winter of 2019-2020, just before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the ministry, which receives flu reports from about 5,000 medical institutions across the country, there were only 189 reported flu cases between Sept. 6 and Dec. 5 this year, even fewer than the 263 cases reported a year before.
| 08/12 (Wed) | 09/12 (Thu) | 10/12 (Fri) | 11/12 (Sat) | 12/12 (Son) | 13/12 (Mon) | 14/12 (Tue) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
136 (+ 15) | 165 (+ 38) | 146 (+ 1) | 149 (+ 18) | 120 (+ 5) | 79 (+ 19) | 144 (+ 29) |
| 08/12 (Wed) | 09/12 (Thu) | 10/12 (Fri) | 11/12 (Sat) | 12/12 (Son) | 13/12 (Mon) | 14/12 (Tue) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 (+ 2) | 1 (± 0) | 1 (± 0) | 1 (+ 1) | 0 (± 0) | 1 (± 0) | 1 (- 1) |
| 08/12 (Wed) | 09/12 (Thu) | 10/12 (Fri) | 11/12 (Sat) | 12/12 (Son) | 13/12 (Mon) | 14/12 (Tue) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
27 (- 16) | 26 (- 12) | 27 (- 5) | 25 (- 3) | 25 (- 4) | 26 (- 3) | 27 (- 1) |
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told a Dec. 16 press conference that an individual who had been in close contact with the person infected with omicron and who'd arrived from overseas on Dec. 8 also tested positive for COVID-19 on Dec. 15. It is unknown whether the individual also has the omicron variant. Both people are now in isolation at a medical facility. The individual apparently went to see the semifinal match of Japanese soccer's Emperor's Cup at Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium in Kanagawa Prefecture, just south of Tokyo on Dec. 12.
Japan began administering booster shots on Dec. 1, starting with health care workers. Moderna's shot is set to be allocated to a workplace vaccination program starting around March. Studies have shown that, unlike Pfizer's vaccine, a Moderna booster containing only half the dosage of each of the first two shots is needed to beef up immunity. It is also expected to have a low rate of side effects such as myocarditis, according to the U.K. Health Security Agency. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said the government plans to allow booster shots to be administered six months after the second shot whenever possible — a reduced timeline from the current plan of eight months.
Prefectural government officials requested that those individuals be tested for the Omicron variant to determine if a causal relationship exists. U.S. military officials have refused to cooperate with the prefectural government. The infected resident, a man in his 50s, worked at Camp Hansen in Kin, Okinawa Prefecture, and lived in Uruma. Prefectural government authorities believe that at least 10 individuals were in close contact with the patient, including family members and work colleagues. Officials are conducting genome analysis because they suspect a woman in her 50s and a male in his 60s who was in close contact with her also may be infected with the Omicron variant.
According to the health ministry, a total of 50 cases of infection with the omicron variant have been confirmed within Japan, including cases detected at airport quarantine stations. On Dec. 17 alone, 14 omicron infections were confirmed. Japan announced its first omicron case on Nov. 30, following the infection of a Namibian diplomat in his 30s who entered Japan from Namibia. A series of omicron infections have been subsequently confirmed among individuals who entered Japan after departing from African countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mozambique, as well as the United States, Italy, Peru and elsewhere. There have also been a considerable number of cases where individuals have been confirmed infected in settings other than inspections conducted when they enter the country. A Gifu prefectural resident in his 40s that had been aboard the same flight as a man in his 50s, who tested positive for COVID-19 during airport quarantine inspections, was also confirmed to have been infected with omicron on Dec. 11.
Japan is betting heavily on oral treatments to keep serious infections and deaths at bay should a feared sixth wave of the pandemic emerge. The government agreed last month to pay Merck and its partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics about $1.2 billion for 1.6 million courses of their drug molnupiravir. In addition, Kishida announced last week a deal to procure 2 million doses of a separate antiviral pill developed by Pfizer Inc. And Japan's Shionogi & Co is expected to soon file for approval of its own treatment, supplying another 1 million doses by early next year.
Might have to add a line or something to that for boosters.199m ; fully vaccinated: 98.6m (+ 0.3m) = 78.3% of population