This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

COVID-19 Coronavirus: general discussion

As I understand it it's basically the same as other respiratory illnesses such as the flu. It some cases when it gets in the lungs, the body may not be able to cope or body musters a massive immune response which can result in other problems that lead to death. The main issue is that it's new and easily transmitted. There's no herd immunity, no vaccines.

Apologies if already posted. I didn't read through the 200 comments here. But if you want a single go to source about this "pandemic" this is the one you need. It's factual, evidence based and updated daily.

Don’t Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus [Updated 4/5]

This is a fast-moving epidemic—we'll update this guide periodically.
arstechnica.com
 
I've managed to find some information on the amount of testing by country.
Basically, Japan have done about five times fewer tests per person than countries with comparable numbers of cases (though the figures are only to Mar 4 compared with Mar 7/8 for the other countries). The number of cases currently announced in Japan is probably a major underestimate and people should continue to take care to minimise their risk of exposure.


Edit: More up-to-date stats (which show the same thing) here.

Coronavirus Testing Criteria and Numbers by Country - Worldometer

www.worldometers.info
 
Last edited:
What puzzles me is that in Okinawa, there are many old people there and yet (although good news) only 3 cases. I wonder if the military bases are on lock down. Also Yamaguchi Pref. only has 3 cases (again good news) but Ube Yamaguchi airport is there and Yamaguchi has 3 shinkansen stops. Something just doesn't add up.
And Ube Yamaguchi Medical hospital and university is preparing for the worst.
 
Actually Okinawa ken actually has the YOUNGEST average age among Japan's 47 prefectures!

å¹³å‡å¹´é½¢ã®éƒ½é“府県ランã‚ング - 都é“åºœçœŒæ ¼ä»˜ç ”ç©¶æ‰€

grading.jpn.org
 
nice gaijin said:
@musicisgood, take care of yourself, practice good hygiene and socially isolate if necessary. Age and pre-existing conditions are the biggest risks if you get sick.

would you mind if I merged this into the main COVID19 thread?
Click to expand...
Wow! That comes to a big surprise to me.
 

Japan is number 2 in high median age, after Monaco at number one. Okinawa is off Japan's median age by 6 years at about 41. At the same time, Okinawa does seem to be over-represented in the category of oldest people in Japan. At any rate, there are plenty of old people in Japan anywhere.
 

Is that where you got your information that its "new and easily transmitted"? Cause 1) Of course its "new"! Every few months there are new strains of flu and cold viruses! and 2) Of course its easily transmitted! Its a cold virus! They ALL are!

But this is extra special "new" and extra special "easily transmitted" well I need some clarification on that. Cause your site says:

"How contagious is it? [New, 3/9/2020]

From current data, the basic reproduction number (R0 ​or R naught) for COVID-19 is estimated to be between 2 and 2.5. That is, on average, a single infected person will go on to infect about two other people within a susceptible population. (Because SARS-CoV-2 is new to humans, everyone is assumed to be susceptible.)

... Seasonal flu has an estimate R0​ of around 1.3. The highly contagious measles has an often-cited R0​ range of 12 to 18, but some calculations have put the number at nearly 60. "

So its twice as easily transmitted as the average flu, but far, Far, FAR less contagious than measles. So should we not say "more easily transmitted than flu" rather than just "easily transmitted"?

This bit is also interesting and runs counter to claims about it spreading between strangers and by people with no symptoms:

"So far in this outbreak, the WHO has reported that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has primarily been between people who have had contact with each other, such as family members. Also, transmission early in a case of COVID-19 (that is, 24 to 48 hours prior to noticeable symptom onset) does not seem to be common. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 tends to be seen later, when symptoms are apparent, according to the WHO. "

So, I am still finding this reaction to Covid-19 to be completely unwarranted. And in fact, I still feel the reaction has increased the numbers of infected and dead, but its STILL not as deadly as the flu.......SO.....are we going to do this rigamarole every god damn year now you think??
 
WHO finally decided to call it a pandemic. Uh.....but not the flu that has killed more. Okay...uh...so...anyone else think this is more politics than medicine?

(cough) Experts (cough)
 
Lothor said:
GET A MASK ON!!!
Click to expand...

My coughs (and sneezes) are purely hay fever. However, given the corona hysteria, I may start wearing a mask to avoid the reaction of hysterical people who will think its corona and therefore, aerosol death.
 
Mark of Zorro said:
But this is extra special "new" and extra special "easily transmitted" well I need some clarification on that.
Click to expand...
Mark of Zorro said:
your site says:
Because SARS-CoV-2 is new to humans, everyone is assumed to be susceptible.
Click to expand...

This refers the extra-special "newness" of the virus.

It's not a minor mutation of an already endemic strain that is close enough to be recognized by our immune systems; normal seasonal mutations are easily adapted to because they closely reasonable minor seasonal mutations of previous seasons. There are of course bad cold and flu strains, where either a mutation is difficult to adapt to or a strain that was never previously widespread starts to spread. Anyway, there is currently no evidence that we have any pre-existing resistance to this virus, and it is believed that we most likely don't.

As far as "easily transmitted," I think you're completely on-point here. I have yet to see anything substantial that suggests that it is any more or less contagious than the average cold-causing coronavirus, or spread in any way that is substantially different. All the comparisons that show that it is "more easily spread" do seem to be comparing to the flu.

Mark of Zorro said:
WHO finally decided to call it a pandemic [...] anyone else think this is more politics than medicine?
Click to expand...

Changing their scale for track world-wide disease spread to not include the word "pandemic" and then coming out now to declare it a "pandemic" are both clearly PR moves. It's not unreasonable to consider that some kind of politics.

Personally, I just consider it an egregious PR misstep. They seem to have wanted to remove the word "pandemic" from the lexicon entirely, but of course removing it from their official descriptions of stages of an epidemic doesn't take the word out of the conversation. Saying "we don't use that word" is essentially ignored. (Technically that's a quote from the CDC not the WHO, but they have been on much the same page in this attempt to get people to stop using the word 'pandemic'). I understand that "pandemic" is a scary sounding word and they don't want panic, but the natural result of not using the word was always going to be reflected in the press as "a pandemic hasn't been declared yet" and was never going to be for the press or the population to stop using the word altogether.

The disease has in fact met the ordinary definition of a pandemic for some time now, but many media outlets at least, and probably other public-facing persons and organizations as well, have been refusing to call it a pandemic because the WHO hadn't "declared" a pandemic yet. Today's declaration was almost certainly simply to end the inconsistency between the actual meaning of the word "pandemic" and the official descriptions of the disease.
 
Last edited:
SomeCallMeChris said:
It's not a minor mutation of an already endemic strain that is close enough to be recognized by our immune systems;
Click to expand...

Well, it seems we are in close enough agreement in everything you said in your last post but this. And I only take issue with the above quote because I don't see a source for it.

Its a good line of discussion in any case and thanks for bringing that angle up. But what is your source?
 
Mark of Zorro said:
But what is your source?
Click to expand...
I didn't think this was a matter of debate. It has been widely discussed that this virus originated in bats, made the jump to humans, and as such is not a simple mutation of existing strains. But anyway, one source on lack of immunity:

Yes. It doesn't appear anyone is naturally immune to this particular virus, and there's no reason to believe anybody has antibodies that would normally protect them.

What to know about the COVID-19 vaccine

Infectious diseases expert Emily Landon, MD, explains what you need to know about the COVID-19 vaccines, including how safe and effective they are and when to get an updated vaccine.
www.uchicagomedicine.org

I also heard it from Doctor Mike ... I think in the linked video, although I can't swear to it. (He only has a handful of coronavirus updates though, it's in there somewhere). While that makes a weak and inexact citation, I think you might enjoy his doctor's eye view of debunking the media. Well, maybe not, you seem to have as low an opinion of the medical community as you do of the media, but I enjoy his content and encourage you to give it a try.

 
I remembered later that Okinawa is also the prefecture in Japan with the highest birth rate, and children really push down the average age - so as musicisgood said, there could also be a large proportion of elderly people too.
 
Mark of Zorro said:
My coughs (and sneezes) are purely hay fever. However, given the corona hysteria, I may start wearing a mask to avoid the reaction of hysterical people who will think its corona and therefore, aerosol death.
Click to expand...
You could get one of these badges.

Whatchu lookin' at? Hay fever and asthma badges help clear the virus-clouded air

Badges indicating that their holders have asthma or hay fever are proving popular in Japan amid the COVID-19 outbreak as more people face uncomfortable sta
www.japantimes.co.jp
 
Mark of Zorro said:
My coughs (and sneezes) are purely hay fever. However, given the corona hysteria, I may start wearing a mask to avoid the reaction of hysterical people who will think its corona and therefore, aerosol death.
Click to expand...
I mean, you could do it for that reason... or you could wear a mask because they are actually really good at filtering out pollen and are likely to reduce your symptoms?
(Filtering out allergens is why I own the masks that I have).
 
SomeCallMeChris said:
I mean, you could do it for that reason... or you could wear a mask because they are actually really good at filtering out pollen and are likely to reduce your symptoms?
(Filtering out allergens is why I own the masks that I have).
Click to expand...

They never did much for me, except for the plastic things that make it look like you have a pig snout. I do wear that one inside and outside my house and sometimes even while driving, but the difference is not great but just a little better...or it could be placebo effect. Generally however I can't see me wearing it. The reactions of people would not worth the small benefit to my hay fever.
 

1. Haha! Nice!

2. People with colds and flu including corona are going to be wearing them too. Maybe not a lot, but it only takes a few idiots to devalue the badge totally.

3. My badge would need an extended middle finger to express my true feelings. Too cute for me. Too merciful to lemmings.
 
Last edited:
SomeCallMeChris said:
I didn't think this was a matter of debate.
Click to expand...

So far I am pretty sure I have heard every possible story about Covid 19. Literally everything is a matter of debate and suspicion in this sea of information and misinformation.

SomeCallMeChris said:
Well, maybe not, you seem to have as low an opinion of the medical community as you do of the media,
Click to expand...

You SERIOUSLY misunderstand me. My problem is with human stupidity and sheepishness and both infect every single occupation on the planet. To understand me, I suggest reading some Sherlock Holmes and note his commentary on society and Dr. Watson and himself. There are truly intelligent and thinking people out there (Holmes, a creator of light) there are those who memorize and use information well ( Watson for example, which Holmes described as a reflector of light) and everybody else who we might as well call twits. Remember that scientist Haruko Obokata who claimed to be able to make STAP cells? At best she would be a reflector of light attempting to be a creator of light. At worst she is a kind of twit. And look how many "scientists" went along with her for so long.

In short, I try to sum up the person by how they speak and what information they provide, how they provide it, substantiate it, etc. and then I decide how much stock I put in the information that comes out of their mouths.

Also, I am plenty nice in person. I just find niceties devalue the usefulness of the internet. That said, engage me a serious discussion in person and then suddenly I am much like I am here.

Side note: I am missing Mike Cash. He is also often misunderstood...or simply hated for nailing point after point while the people he respond to fail and get annoyed. He is a fine example of how people will dismiss the truth, simply because they don't like it, like some other idea, or even like some other person speaking better.
 
Last edited:
Mark of Zorro said:
So far I am pretty sure I have heard every possible story about Covid 19. Literally everything is a matter of debate and suspicion in this sea of information and misinformation.
Click to expand...

Ahh. I try to keep up with as many WHO and CDC briefings as possible (from their livestreams, not from some journalist writing what they think was meant), particularly noting their actual statements of fact and how they are qualified (e.g., they always talk about 'confirmed cases' which is different from how many people have gotten sick or been exposed, which when asked directly they always say that they won't speculate); after that I take seriously other people with medical and scientific backgrounds.

Essentially everything else I consider to have as much value as gossip in the checkout line (including statements from government officials who are not directly part of a health organization, which most certainly includes all elected officials.)

I'm sure there's all sorts of spin out there, but even at the best of times I try to avoid sensationalist click-bait headlines and overtly partisan sources.

It is, of course, necessary to keep up with the statements of elected officials to know what their response plans are. I expect their statements on actions they are taking to be accurate, but I don't expect them to have any particularly good understanding of the underlying scientific and medical realities. Also, of course, anyone with a retirement portfolio is probably keeping up with financial news, but market analysts are also poor sources of medical or scientific information.

Viewed through that lens, I've found the news to be reasonably consistent, and unfolding pretty much as expected. Most of the changes have been as facts came to light in the early days, or else actual changes in the situation as it develops.
 

Not sure which reaction you're referring to. Taking no or ineffective action leads to overwhelmed medical facilities and quite a few dead people as in Wuhan or Italy. Taking drastic action stops the exponential spread also as in Wuhan.

I don't think this will go on every year. We'll get some level of herd immunity over time. And, hopefully, we'll have some vaccines for it.
 
mdchachi said:
Taking no or ineffective action leads to overwhelmed medical facilities and quite a few dead people
Click to expand...

Can you really not see that over-reaction is more likely to do that? Right now Masayoshi Son is being criticized for offering to pay for individual's Covid-19 tests and the complaint is that he could over-whelm medical facilities with people trying to get tests. I don't think it will happen simply because people don't immediately know the process by which to get him to pay. However, if Son's word was as good as gold in your pocket, then the current panic could very lead to such a conclusion.

Something like 80 percent of the infected have mild symptoms. Those people could easily overwhelm they system by panicking...as can those who don't even have Covid-19 but something with similar but still mild symptoms.

When I say "take no action" I mean the government. Of course people who are very sick need to go to the hospital. And of course hospitals may have to take extra measures. And if the hospitals run out of money or beds or places to transfer patients then the government should step in. Otherwise politicians can make things worse...and in fact....I believe they have.
 
Mark of Zorro said:
Can you really not see that over-reaction is more likely to do that?
Click to expand...
Yes I really don't see that. So far closing schools and emptying stadiums has not seem to have led to increased burden on medical facilities. I'm not following your logic as to why it would.
 
mdchachi said:
Yes I really don't see that. So far closing schools and emptying stadiums has not seem to have led to increased burden on medical facilities. I'm not following your logic as to why it would.
Click to expand...

Well yeah. If you can only see those and skip over closing down whole cities, such as in China and Italy, all the things in between and spreading panic in general, sure.

Trump just declared a national emergency after banning travel to continental Europe. Seems a bit of an over-reaction to Tom Hanks getting it in Australia. Abe will surely follow suit in declaring a national emergency.

South Korea set up drive through testing stations around the country and one would think the point was to avoid overwhelming the system.

Italy has closed down cafes, restaurants and retail stores. Two of those sell food and some people really do rely on those for nutrition and without them will be eating things like cup noodle.

The Canadian PM is isolating himself.

And more I cannot be bothered to tell such a forgetful person.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

COVID-19 Coronavirus: situation in Japan
46 47 48
Replies
1K
Views
176K
salyavin
  • Poll Poll
Tokyo Olympics & Paralympics 2021 Discussion Thread
4 5 6
Replies
125
Views
17K
salyavin
COVID-19 Coronavirus: practicalities
2 3
Replies
62
Views
9K
musicisgood
Dolphin hunting and general issues of humaness
Replies
24
Views
8K
Tokis-Phoenix
COVID-19 Japanese government payout
2
Replies
34
Views
8K
Davey
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more…