-
China may grow old before it gets rich, new study warns
By Hamish McDonald, Herald Correspondent in Beijing
April 28, 2004
Faced with a population ageing at an unprecedented rate, China has been warned it may grow old before it has a chance of reaching widespread prosperity.
"Today's great powers became affluent before they became ageing societies," say the US demographers Richard Jackson and Neil Howe in a new study. "China may be the first major country to grow old before it grows rich."
The proportion of over-60s in the population will rise from the current 11 per cent to 28 per cent - and possibly even as high as 32 per cent - by 2040, the year when communist leaders are confident that fast growth will have brought China close to challenging the economic power and strategic size of the United States.
"In Europe, the elder share of the population passed 10 per cent in the 1930s and will not reach 30 per cent until the 2030s, a century later," say Jackson and Howe in their paper for Washington's Centre for Strategic and International Studies. "China will traverse the same distance in a single generation."
By then the country will have almost 400 million elderly people who, unless broad pension schemes are started soon, will have no support. Although China has a healthy national savings rate of 40 per cent, households provide only a tiny proportion of savings and most are invested in dwellings.
Few people qualify for social security and attempts at setting up new pension funds have led to an "empty account" syndrome, where contributions are siphoned away by official institutions to meet the unfunded obligations of state-owned enterprises.
Most rely on traditional old-age insurance in the form of children. But the one-child policy enforced since 1978 has led to the so-called "4-2-1 problem" where one child will be expected to support two aged parents and four grandparents.
The emerging gender imbalance, resulting from selective abortion of females, also means that daughters-in-law, who do the actual caring for the elderly, will be in short supply.
Those healthy enough to continue work will find job-hunting tough. Many Chinese heading into retirement would have missed out on secondary and college education during the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution.
"As elders, they may find themselves competing with teenagers for sweatshop jobs," the authors say.
The warning in the paper titled The Graying of the Middle Kingdom is partly a job application by its funders, the huge US funds manager Prudential Financial Inc. Like insurers worldwide it seems to be eyeing a role in helping China set up a universal pension scheme in time to avert the crisis.
But it adds to warnings by Chinese demographers that looming population imbalances could bring social turmoil.
It also comes as the Chinese Government published details of unemployment, showing that despite recent 9 per cent economic growth, job creation was still far from soaking up the country's pool of surplus workers.
Interesting article. Although it involves some stereotyping, Chinese bachelors are known to be good cooks
By then the country will have almost 400 million elderly people who, unless broad pension schemes are started soon, will have no support. Although China has a healthy national savings rate of 40 per cent, households provide only a tiny proportion of savings and most are invested in dwellings.
JackInBox said:.
You read this everywhere.
Could cause social turmoil, i think they will let their old just wither and die.
Also the imbalance of boys to girls (due to abortions).
_.
Tonysoong said:Drink some cold water and quench the flames in your heart, my friend.
Tonysoong said:Doing it already, honey
That's the whole point - what will happen first? Will people be able to enjoy the benefits of Chinese market economy? Or will it collapse, relying on the swarm of non-educated and un-skilled workers, who will (as the article says) not be in sufficient numbers to sustain the economy (I've read that China needs at least 7% GDP growth just to accomodate new people on the labor market every year)?Tonysoong said:As someone has pointed out before, China is already very old, and it's getting increasingly rich.
Tonysoong said:Doing it already, honey
Conjugal harmony might just bring the two back to friendly terms; provided the harmony is well preserved.LA Times said:Unions Across a Divide
By Mark Magnier, Times Staff Writer, LIUZHOU
China and Taiwan and China may be rattling sabers, targeting missiles and threatening war, but that doesn't stop [a Taiwanese man from looking for love on mainland China].
......
Despite years of hostility between Taiwan and China, a bridge between the two adversaries is quietly being built by thousands of cross-strait marriages every year. Nowadays, more than 20% of all Taiwanese marry a mainlander, about 55,000 annually, compared with 14% five years ago.
The majority of couples meet on their own through friends or business dealings. For those ... without the time or inclination to do their own legwork, however, a vibrant business has developed. Taiwanese men pay $5,000 to $10,000 for a trip to the mainland, scores of introductions and help with the marriage certificate and related paperwork.
......
Not everyone thinks cross-strait pairings are such a great idea. Given China's one-child policy, some parents of prospective brides fret about losing their only offspring to Taiwan, which can seem a world away. Occasionally the bride's family will ask for compensation, or raise the fear that a Taiwanese earthquake or Chinese attack on Taiwan could put her in harm's way.
......
Although China and Taiwan share a heritage and language, there are inevitable cultural barriers to overcome after half a century apart.
......
"Mainland girls, especially northerners, like strong, spicy food, while older Taiwanese prefer theirs mild," said agent Yu. "Food is so important to the Chinese, it can break up a marriage." ... And while mainland brides are becoming more mainstream, Taiwanese society can still look down on them as bumpkins with funny accents.
......
As the number of cross-strait couples rises, some see a quiet but important political dividend in the making. "In ancient history, warring kings married daughters to the other side to calm things down," said [cross straits marriage broker] Zhu on a trip to Liuzhou with six Taiwanese bachelors." In the same way, I think these marriages can also be an important stabilizing force between China and Taiwan."
......
"If Chinese President Hu Jintao had a Taiwanese wife and Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian had a mainland wife, the world would be a lot better off," said Yu Ming-ming, a matchmaker with Taipei's Wedding Information Center agency. "I feel we're a really important link."
Duo said:Maybe you should watch your diction, calling respectable forum advisors honey with slimy sarcastic undertones is not highly reputable and as tacky as you think.
And considering your age, you shoudn't be acting like a pubescent teenager who is victim of hormonal imbalance...... or sudden mood swings, pms maybe :?
So i think it would be best if you apologize and refrain from further such comments and if you need to vent yourself from stress of anti-japanese feelings go out in the street and kik some soda cans or jump in dumpster or smth; don't bring your s**t here
Castor Krieg said:That's the whole point - what will happen first? Will people be able to enjoy the benefits of Chinese market economy? Or will it collapse, relying on the swarm of non-educated and un-skilled workers, who will (as the article says) not be in sufficient numbers to sustain the economy (I've read that China needs at least 7% GDP growth just to accomodate new people on the labor market every year)?
kirei_na_me said:Not your honey.
Tonysoong said:I fancy I might know China better than you if I were just as educated and cultivated as you, so save your worries or hang-overs about China, Castor, China is now doing increasingly better despite the various problem it has. Don't worry. And thanks for your sincere concern about China.
Tonysoong said:Nobody thinks they are communists, though they still call theirs a communist party.
Ma Cherie said:So, are you saying some of the people in the government don't consider themselves communists?
Tonysoong said:None of them, Ma Chene, that's in fact where the oddness lies. They still call theirs Chinese communist party just for the "legitimacy" of their dictatorship
Ma Cherie said:So, are you saying some of the people in the government don't consider themselves communists?
I think, that should be Three Represents.A5573A said:Chairman Jiang's Three Representatives