COVID-19 Coronavirus: situation in Japan

[Mark of Zorro]

A little bit of good news for Tokyoites; the number of new cases in Tokyo today (12th) is 166. This is down from the 197 of yesterday as mentioned above by musicisgood. Long may this trend continue.

I only hope these numbers strengthen the resolve to stay inside for a couple of weeks.

Lothor earlier pointed out that irregular testing/reporting means artificially low numbers on weekends. Today is Sunday and yesterday was Saturday.

apparently there are big fluctuations due to the irregular way cases are reported and the reduced amount of testing at weekends.

 

[musicisgood]

Look for numbers to explode today around 6 pm. Just my thinking.
And when the heck are they going to start testing the public. Its insane not to start testing now.
By the way, anyone have the current number of deaths from the flu so far this year here in Japan.

 

[Lothor]

Look for numbers to explode today around 6 pm. Just my thinking.
And when the heck are they going to start testing the public. Its insane not to start testing now.
By the way, anyone have the current number of deaths from the flu so far this year here in Japan.

I heard that the number of cases of flu was about half its normal levels late winter, probably due to increased hygiene and mask use. Interestingly, the overall death rate was down in Britain for the first few months of the year until the drop got cancelled out by the deaths due to the virus.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I heard that the number of cases of flu was about half its normal levels late winter, probably due to increased hygiene and mask use. Interestingly, the overall death rate was down in Britain for the first few months of the year until the drop got cancelled out by the deaths due to the virus.

As most of us tend to look at such rates on a yearly basis, if we bother at all, I wonder how much attention has been paid to monthly rates before this? While there are certainly out of the ordinary numbers in certain places, over-all, more generalized statistics will show what I wonder? A barely noticeable blip in most categories? Its just another "wait and see" deal I guess.

As for decreased levels in Japan in the early months of the flu season, it might interest you to know that I live in central Japan and was working outside, at night, on the ground in January and barely felt a chill. I could not have pulled that off in March for the cold.

 

[mdchachi]

Well lets say not much good, and with cancelling school, a heck of a lot of bad. As I have often said, I would have approached this from the angle of isolating those most susceptible rather than everybody else. As I have also said, only spring is really going to slow this down.

You've never said how that could be accomplished. Especially in Japan. Over 30% of the population is over 60. And considering that 25-50% of the virus carriers are asymptomatic that strategy would be virtually impossible imo.

Of course they cannot STOP it. But they can SLOW it by detecting Covid 19 patients and isolating them and also by properly handling, storing and preparing for burial those that have died.

I don't think doctors are not much of a factor at all. They only deal with the sick. By the time people are in doctors' care or hospitalized they have already likely spread the virus. I think when it's all said and done they will discover the virus was a lot more active and spreading earlier than thought. Probably plenty of elderly died from pneumonia or flu-like symptoms without raising any eyebrows.

It IS spring. But the virus takes one to two weeks for symptoms to appear from infection. And if one were infected on a wintery day and the following two weeks were spring like, its not likely much difference to whether one will show symptoms or not.

You need to be specific about what areas you are claiming has had spring like weather since when exactly. I do not keep track of regional weather patterns.

I'm talking about warm places like Okinawa , Hong Kong, etc. Based on the numbers in such places my guess is that warmer weather will help but it won't be a panacea.

 

[Majestic]

Lothor earlier pointed out that...

Poster by the name of Majestic also pointed this out last Friday, and posted graphs which clearly show the dips happening every Monday as a result of timing of the tests and the results coming in.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Look for numbers to explode today around 6 pm. Just my thinking.

Its nearly 11 p.m. and I cannot find any fresh data.

 

[Majestic]

Sunday the numbers were low, and as usual the numbers for Monday were even lower. The reported number of new cases for Monday were 294 new cases, which we should all assume is a number that is a result of lower testing/reporting rather than an actual drop in cases. (But two days in a row, even if greatly massaged, is a relief to see). Let's see what it looks like today.

The graph as of Sunday is as below.

新型コロナウイルス 感染者数やNHK最新ニュース｜NHK特設サイト

【NHK】新型コロナウイルスの日本国内の感染者数や最新ニュースはこちらです。初期症状や感染予防の情報、ワクチン・治療薬・PCR検査に関する最新情報、補助金・助成金などの支援情報、学校関連の情報、政府や各都道府県の対応、分科会の見解や提言、番組のお知らせなどをまとめています。

www3.nhk.or.jp

 

[Glenski]

Up in Hokkaido , the daily number of cases fell to zero for a day (sampling anomaly?) then jumped to the teens per day for 4 days in a row, where it was only 1-5 cases per day before that. So despite a decline, prior to April 8th, the new number of cases per day changed the curve to one showing a rise in the overall rate.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

You've never said how that could be accomplished.

Have you asked before? Is it even that hard to imagine what with all these other measures going on?

Probably plenty of elderly died from pneumonia or flu-like symptoms without raising any eyebrows.

Pneumonia has been the third leading cause of death in Japan for like 8 years now.

I think when it's all said and done they will discover the virus was a lot more active and spreading earlier than thought.

That could go the opposite way too if we find that the less intensive screening tests were producing a ton of false positives as some people allege.

And given as this is Japan and nearly all the bodies get cremated, they better have taken a boat load of lung tissue samples and stored and catalogued them for your assertion to pass, but I seriously doubt that happened.

I'm talking about warm places like Okinawa, Hong Kong, etc.

Well they don't really spring in the sense I was talking about. Cold and flu viruses act differently there.

 

[mdchachi]

That could go the opposite way too if we find that the less intensive screening tests were producing a ton of false positives as some people allege.

And given as this is Japan and nearly all the bodies get cremated, they better have taken a boat load of lung tissue samples and stored and catalogued them for your assertion to pass, but I seriously doubt that happened.

I would think they could compare mortality rates and causes of death to get a pretty good idea after the fact without actual confirmation of tissue samples.
For example if death from "pneumonia" was significantly elevated the last few months as compared to previous years it could be a clue.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I would think they could compare mortality rates and causes of death to get a pretty good idea after the fact without actual confirmation of tissue samples.
For example if death from "pneumonia" was significantly elevated the last few months as compared to previous years it could be a clue.

A clue yes. But it also has some serious difficulties. Its one thing if a healthy, young person has pneumonia and dies. You are pretty safe concluding it was pneumonia that did it. But if someone is old and has other health problems then you may need a very robust autopsy to determine what really killed them....assuming it really was just one thing that ended their life.

And as I was thinking at the beginning of all this Covid 19/ Sars 2 situation, maybe its not directly the virus but secondary bacterial and/or fungal infections doing the killing. Seems unlikely at this point but it does help me reconcile the (apparent) concentration of deaths, rates, and overwhelmed systems in large cities as opposed to small towns. After all, even the doctors and scientists working on it can get over-focused on things like the virus to the point that bacteria and fungus get ignored. It took quite some time to even have that posited as a theory for the deaths to the Spanish flu.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Have you asked before?

mdchachi, I don't know why you did not answer this direct question in you last post, so I ask you again.

 

[mdchachi]

A clue yes. But it also has some serious difficulties. Its one thing if a healthy, young person has pneumonia and dies. You are pretty safe concluding it was pneumonia that did it. But if someone is old and has other health problems then you may need a very robust autopsy to determine what really killed them....assuming it really was just one thing that ended their life.

And as I was thinking at the beginning of all this Covid 19/ Sars 2 situation, maybe its not directly the virus but secondary bacterial and/or fungal infections doing the killing. Seems unlikely at this point but it does help me reconcile the (apparent) concentration of deaths, rates, and overwhelmed systems in large cities as opposed to small towns. After all, even the doctors and scientists working on it can get over-focused on things like the virus to the point that bacteria and fungus get ignored. It took quite some time to even have that posited as a theory for the deaths to the Spanish flu.

What difference does it make if it's a secondary infection or not? The virus is still the underlying trigger. Technically the virus isn't killing anybody, it's the body's reaction that is killing people. Cytokine storms and the like.

mdchachi, I don't know why you did not answer this direct question in you last post, so I ask you again.

I don't think I asked before. And I'm not asking now. It was just an observation. You seem to be continually complaining about the actions being taken without providing (workable) alternate solutions. Without combing through all your posts and going by memory you are mainly advocating isolating the most vulnerable people somehow and waiting until spring. That approach ignores the growth pattern of the virus and the way it is spreading, often by asymptomatic carriers. And the fact that it's not only at-risk people that get harmed. Unlucky younger people too. Even those that survive may end up with permanent damage. So you really seem to be making an argument that it's ok to have extra dead and damaged people as long as measures affecting the economy isn't taken. (Back to your early arguments comparing this thing to influenza). So then it becomes an actuarial calculation. How much is human life worth, what are the economic effects of various measures, etc. and based on that what is the best course of action. But I doubt you're even doing that. It seems like you're sitting in your armchair or 座椅子 and just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I don't think I asked before. And I'm not asking now. It was just an observation. You seem to be continually complaining about the actions being taken without providing (workable) alternate solutions.

Ah...there you go. Making a fresh accusation against me on top of the previous one as if I owed you some sort of detailed explanation without you even bothering to ask for one. You should have just asked instead of take that tone with me.

Sweden is doing pretty much what I said to do which is to tell the old and frail to protect THEMSELVES. What's complicated about it?

If you want more detail I suggest you learn to ask instead of accusing of me of failing to type extreme details of things I don't think most members of this board are remotely interested in and will never be read or implemented by the powers that be. I also don't get paid for any of this.

You are going to find that a lot of people will post general ideas and leave it at that unless asked for more information. I suggest you get used to it.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

That approach ignores the growth pattern of the virus and the way it is spreading, often by asymptomatic carriers.

No it doesn't. Isolation does not mean hug and kiss those who show no symptoms...lick their hands even.

I also earlier said that those who care for them need to also isolate as much as possible. Are you not paying any attention or are you just desperate to annoy me?

And the fact that it's not only at-risk people that get harmed.

I addressed that too and again you accuse me of ignoring something. Its the same every cold and flu season, even to death. I am not ignoring anything.

I have to "respect" you because its part of the terms here. But you clearly are not deserving of it.

But I doubt you're even doing that. It seems like you're sitting in your armchair or 座椅子 and just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.

If I like a clean blackboard I am going to complain every time you write something on it. Yes, I know from your view that every time I complain its going to seem contrarian and somewhere I explained this as well.

But if my position is to basically do nothing, then I am going counter all the million things people say that amount to doing something.

Its like when Napoleon erased all the laws and started over from scratch. Its easy for the dim to just think he hated laws and ignore the "started over" part.

So you really seem to be making an argument that it's ok to have extra dead and damaged people as long as measures affecting the economy isn't taken.

I have said this many many times, but life is risk and people die. They also get injured and damaged. I also said certain actions can make everything worse and I was not just talking about economy. And I also said to imagine if the gas stops...cause then the food stops...and then the shooting starts. How well do people recover from excessive lead in their system? Or kids from severe malnutrition?

I am not a rich man so stop acting like my stake in the economy is nothing but a new yacht next year. I am not a selfish man so stop acting like I am just worried about myself. I am not a short sighted man so stop acting like my concern is only for today and tomorrow.

And for the love of all that is holy stop ACCUSING me of things you could dismiss yourself my merely reading my prior posts OR ask me about.

In fact, if you could just refrain from even addressing me, that would be nice because I hardly think you are even capable of learning.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

What difference does it make if it's a secondary infection or not?

It means we might be better off with totally different approaches such as ensuring that hospitals and workers there are better sterilized. It might mean that instead of anti-viral we should be focused on being anti-fungal. It might mean that instead of going to hospitals people should be treated from home. The difference could be massive. The difference could be life-saving.

Technically the virus isn't killing anybody, it's the body's reaction that is killing people. Cytokine storms and the like.

AFAIK this is not yet proven.

 

[mdchachi]

No it doesn't. Isolation does not mean hug and kiss those who show no symptoms...lick their hands even.

I also earlier said that those who care for them need to also isolate as much as possible. Are you not paying any attention or are you just desperate to annoy me?

Yes you keep saying that without showing how that might work in real life. So far "volunteer isolation as much as possible" hasn't worked anywhere.
Or if it has, you haven't mentioned it. You could point to Sweden I guess but their story is not yet complete.

You get constantly annoyed and not just by me. So you might want to look within yourself when you start feeling that way.

I addressed that too and again you accuse me of ignoring something. Its the same every cold and flu season, even to death. I am not ignoring anything.

I have to "respect" you because its part of the terms here. But you clearly are not deserving of it.

You don't have to respect me. You just need to be civil. I don't respect you if it helps. When I came back after my hiatus and noticed you were active, the first thing I thought was "oh the misogynist is still here." And it had been years since I'd seen any of your posts. (Note I'm not calling you names that you haven't called yourself.)

If I like a clean blackboard I am going to complain every time you write something on it. Yes, I know from your view that every time I complain its going to seem contrarian and somewhere I explained this as well.

But if my position is to basically do nothing, then I am going counter all the million things people say that amount to doing something.

Well at least you have lots of free time so good for you.

I have said this many many times, but life is risk and people die. They also get injured and damaged. I also said certain actions can make everything worse and I was not just talking about economy. And I also said to imagine if the gas stops...cause then the food stops...and then the shooting starts. How well do people recover from excessive lead in their system? Or kids from severe malnutrition?

No arguments with this except none of this seems relevant to the current pandemic. Not sure which fallacy this falls under. Slippery slope? Begging the question? Or maybe Reductio ad absurdum.

I am not a rich man so stop acting like my stake in the economy is nothing but a new yacht next year. I am not a selfish man so stop acting like I am just worried about myself. I am not a short sighted man so stop acting like my concern is only for today and tomorrow.

And for the love of all that is holy stop ACCUSING me of things you could dismiss yourself my merely reading my prior posts OR ask me about.

In fact, if you could just refrain from even addressing me, that would be nice because I hardly think you are even capable of learning.

I didn't act or insinuate that you are rich, selfish or shortsighted. You just haven't demonstrated much understanding despite having lots of knowledge, opinions and arguments, that's all (imo).
If you refrain from responding to anything I say for 14 days then all contact points would disappear, just like the virus.

It means we might be better off with totally different approaches such as ensuring that hospitals and workers there are better sterilized. It might mean that instead of anti-viral we should be focused on being anti-fungal. It might mean that instead of going to hospitals people should be treated from home. The difference could be massive. The difference could be life-saving.

That's all well and good but every time (again going by memory here) you've brought up secondary reasons for mortality, you've used it to minimize the disease as if that would makes it less serious.

 

[Majestic]

Some welcome news as the number of new cases in Japan seems to have come off the boil. We should anticipate the low numbers on Sunday and Monday, but this trend continued until Tuesday, and today Tokyo announced a total of 125 new cases. One has to worry that these relatively lower numbers will mean people will go back to their old patterns of behavior rather than stay vigilant. However, it is a relief to see these numbers. Let's hope the trend continues.

Note the graph contains data up to Tuesday. It doesn't reflect today's numbers. (Judging from Tokyo's announcement of 125 new cases, I guess the entire country had maybe 450 new cases today? Which would make it slightly lower than the last bar on the graph)

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Even the JT folks who were and still are screaming to high heaven for a heavy handed absolute lock down are all over the health ministry for predicting 400, 000 deaths. Its a wonder some black suited fascist from the government has not commanded JT to put a stop to it yet.

Health ministry says 400,000 could die in Japan without virus containment measures

Editor's note: The story has been updated. Japan could see some 850,000 people seriously sickened by the coronavirus and almost half of them dying if no social distancing or other measures are followed, according to an expert estimate released Wednesday. Japan has the world's oldest population...

japantoday.com

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Yes you keep saying that without showing how that might work in real life. So far "volunteer isolation as much as possible" hasn't worked anywhere.
Or if it has, you haven't mentioned it. You could point to Sweden I guess but their story is not yet complete.

Dude, no one's story can be said to be completed. My friend predicts it's going to come back even harder next fall just like Spanish flu did.

So far as me going into detail, it seems I did not get through to you at all last post about it. There is nothing complicated there. Figure it out for yourself and stop asking without really asking.

And I also never claimed the old and frail self isolating would work, just as I am not saying any other human measure is actually working. I was just saying it would make more sense for those at risk to protect themselves....and if they fail? Their problem. I am American, man. I grew up without any sort of health insurance and was diagnosed with malnutrition. I certainly don't approve of that situation but I did learn I have to take some responsibility for my own health and not expect a great big nanny state to run to my aid at any moment.

And I am not going to go into great detail as I said earlier, cause it is all for naught whatever I suggest, but (for example and not a hard and fast suggestion) governments could pass laws stating that the old and infirm shall be compensated from tax money for any work missed due to self quarantine over covid-19....just as the J government is offering compensation for everyone affected by their request for closures. Not rocket science.

 

[musicisgood]

Hey folks, watch this. Its in English. Its only up for a few more days.

COVID-19: Preventing an Explosive Surge of Infections - NHK Documentary | NHK WORLD-JAPAN On Demand

The fight against the coronavirus has entered a new phase in Japan. Tokyo and other major cities are experiencing a surge in the number of COVID-19 cases. And many of the infection routes are untraceable. An explosion of cases could collapse the Japanese medical system. NHK speaks with experts...

www3.nhk.or.jp

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Hey folks, watch this. Its in English. Its only up for a few more days.

COVID-19: Preventing an Explosive Surge of Infections - NHK Documentary | NHK WORLD-JAPAN On Demand

The fight against the coronavirus has entered a new phase in Japan. Tokyo and other major cities are experiencing a surge in the number of COVID-19 cases. And many of the infection routes are untraceable. An explosion of cases could collapse the Japanese medical system. NHK speaks with experts...

www3.nhk.or.jp

I could only stomach a few minutes of that NHK government propaganda rubbish. Since they are going to take it down soon for some inexplicable reason, I hesitate to explain in much detail why its propaganda rubbish in much detail but:

They conducted a survey of 1000 doctors and say "many" of the replies were cries for help. "Many"??? It was a GD survey! They can't give a percentage?? How many is "many"??

Particularly insidious was showing a little girl with a breathing tube in her neck without clearly explaining her situation. They just vaguely mention that people with other conditions are worried they may not be able to get care if the system is filled with corona patients. But unless you were paying strict attention and had the knowledge and experience to suss out that that little girl was NOT suffering from Covid-19, you would think she has a breathing tube and is writhing on the floor because of corona. So in particular, the irresponsible bastards just terrorized children and a whole slew of adults not up to par.

They speak of opening schools safely but safe for who??? The kids are at less risk than they are with the flu every year!

They bring a professor on but don't even mention his field of expertise. We learn he is the director of a cell research center and that's our only clue. He does tell us he is not an infectious disease expert. Great! Why is he there? Oh...he posts information on a website. What website? HIS website! URL? Nope. And what does he say? New York is facing difficulties. What kind? Dunno. San Fran is barely hanging on he says. How so? Dunno.

And did I see one actual corona victim in the first 5 minutes?? Nope. Just people milling about or talking vagaries.

 

[Majestic]

Steep drop on the weekend and on Tuesday, with a slight rise yesterday coming from Hokkaido , Aomori, Saitama, and quite a few from Osaka, Nara, and HIroshima. The Tokyo number for yesterday ended up at 127 cases, so I expected a nationwide total of around 450 cases (actually, I thought it might even be fewer). It turns out the nationwide total for yesterday was 549 cases. Still, it has to be good news that Tokyo's numbers are off the peak. So we can say that Tokyo should represent 23% of new cases. Given the density of the population in Tokyo, we might consider that the lower this number drops, the less of a threat the epidemic becomes (as it should be theoretically more difficult to spread the virus in the less populated, less densely-packed prefectures).

The downside is that last week there was a serious rise on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. So if that pattern repeats itself we will again see another peak on Saturday.

 

[Lothor]

They just vaguely mention that people with other conditions are worried they may not be able to get care if the system is filled with corona patients. But unless you were paying strict attention and had the knowledge and experience to suss out that that little girl was NOT suffering from Covid-19, you would think she has a breathing tube and is writhing on the floor because of corona. So in particular, the irresponsible bastards just terrorized children and a whole slew of adults not up to par.

They speak of opening schools safely but safe for who??? The kids are at less risk than they are with the flu every year!

Nicely written. The reporting by the Japanese media is maddeningly vague when you want precision and provides way too much detail when little is necessary (on a hot summer's day, who gives a damn that it reached 39.4 degrees in Kumagaya but only 38.2 degrees in Omiya?). In particular, the news keeps stressing the anxiety ('fuan') of it all, as if that's the worst possible aspect of the pandemic. Anyone would think that the news was designed not to inform!

Regarding the kids - they are not at much risk, but they can be vectors and are in danger of infecting older people, so the opening of schools is a major issue.