COVID-19 Coronavirus: general discussion

[Mark of Zorro]

And please for the love of God, don't start blasting me with accusations about how those don't work. I already said I don't believe ANY of them work when you just slap them on a random goober not following protocols. I also said I don't know anything about their effectiveness concerning virus, so you get to find and submit your own evidence, cause I am not advocating anything, just providing information for you to take or leave as you please.

 

[SomeCallMeChris]

What I was talking about were dust masks for things like woodworking. Those would be found in the tool section and the disposable ones look like this:

I'm in America so maybe things are different, but my masks from the drugstore look *exactly* like that, so precisely so that I'm pretty sure they are made by the same company in the same molds. They are meant to keep allergens among other things out. They are more expensive than masks that don't make such promises... but if you can't keep pollens out, then I don't see much hope for keeping viruses out.

I might note though, that cold viruses are generally not spread through the air. They *can* be but it's a very low rate of transmission. Mostly they spread through surfaces - you touch something the carrier touched and then rub your mouth or eyes, or handle food/dishes/utensils before washing your hands. While the symptoms are more severe, I haven't heard anything to suggest that Wuhan coronavirus transmits any differently than any other cold.

 

[thomas]

Tokyo Marathon to restrict entry to elite athletes due to coronavirus

Organizers of the Tokyo Marathon said Monday they will allow only elite athletes, including wheelchair racers, to take part in the upcoming pre-Olympic event, as Japan steps up efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak. Of the 38,000 who were scheduled to compete on March 1, those in the...

japantoday.com

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I'm not looking for masks, but I noticed this posted on the retirejapan site:

Disaster Preparation: Diseases

Not much has happened and already people are freaking out My wife went to buy hand soap yesterday and the shop was restricting purchases to one per person. It seems the panic over the yet-to-arrive…

www.retirejapan.com

Well, we are both right it seems. I went to a very rural Cainz Home and all n95 masks in the dust mask/tool section were sold out. Anything of any other grade remained however, including one meant for gas...which may well be better than n95...IDK. However it was 500 yen for a replaceable filter and I don't know how long one lasts. I assume not long because its in a sealed pack with an expiration date and felt like it was saturated with liquid. If the other grades were better or worse I still don't know.

 

[okinawaholic]

Second case here, with the taxi driver picking up passengers from the Diamond Princess.

There goes the 14 day incubation period and, I'll bet, more to follow.

 

[okinawaholic]

There goes the 14 day incubation period and, I'll bet, more to follow.

I take that back. It looks like he was showing physical signs in the 14-day period, but, he waited a week until the severity of his illness was too great. I sure hope that he wasn't driving people around for a week with a fever, as if that is the only way it's passed as we all know, and that he makes a full recovery as it sounds pretty bad for him already.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I take that back. It looks like he was showing physical signs in the 14-day period, but, he waited a week until the severity of his illness was too great. I sure hope that he wasn't driving people around for a week with a fever, as if that is the only way it's passed as we all know, and that he makes a full recovery as it sounds pretty bad for him already.

It doesn't matter. They cannot stop it.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

The tracker I provided earlier now has the Diamond Princess as its own category among the countries listed. They seem to be keep the numbers separate from Japan. Coronavirus Update (Live): 75,316 Cases and 2,012 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

 

[okinawaholic]

The tracker I provided earlier now has the Diamond Princess as its own category among the countries listed. They seem to be keep the numbers separate from Japan. Coronavirus Update (Live): 75,316 Cases and 2,012 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

WHO.int has always tracked it separately in their sitreps.

But the case I referred to happened to be on land, here, infected by someone on the Diamond Princess.

I think the site you reference is more accurate in numbers over WHO.int, as it seems highly downplayed by them. Nonetheless, WHO.int is probably a more "trusted" source. However, in all actuality, I don't know who or what to trust anymore with whistleblowers disappearing and the hypothesis they come up with that are just refuted days later by other information collected.

They cannot stop it.

Sadly, I think you're right. It's gonna play out how it plays out and it's really just a guessing game on how or when or if ever it'll affect you until an anti-virus is released. This is just the beginning and it's going to get a lot worse before better.

I'm just like, if I get it, I get it.

Just spare my kids.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Sadly, I think you're right. It's gonna play out how it plays out and it's really just a guessing game on how or when or if ever it'll affect you until an anti-virus is released. This is just the beginning and it's going to get a lot worse before better.

Any vaccine they come up with will only work half the time. Far better to rely on proper nutrition, rest, drinking lots of water, washing your hands, being careful not to touch what other people touch and don't touch your face without washing hands first.

Cold and flu vaccines are for the old and weak. Big pharma just wants to make money selling them to people who don't need them. And this is making great publicity, even as far more die from just the flu in just America. It shows how the people are just a flock of easily distracted sheep.

 

[SomeCallMeChris]

Any vaccine they come up with will only work half the time.

Cold and flu vaccines are for the old and weak.

The low efficacy of 'flu shots' is largely due to it being a vaccine against the most virulent strains for the particular flu season, and because failure is generally measured as 'did you get a flu-like illness?'

It doesn't 'prevent the flu' if you get a different strain of the flu, or say a coronavirus with flu-like symptoms, nor is it counted as 'successful' in efficacy rates if you are sick for only a couple days instead of a week or longer.

Flu shots reduce the chances of getting sick from the strains of influenza they immunize for, and even if you do get sick, the length and severity of sickness is likely to be significantly reduced. It's more important for vulnerable populations because it might be fatal for them, while someone in otherwise good health with a strong immune system will almost always survive. Importantly for the community if not for the individual, the contagious period is also reduced for those viruses you're immunized against.

If you find skipping half the flus you would otherwise catch and diminishing the severity of the rest an attractive proposition, then a flu shot is something you might want to consider.

The rate of efficacy of a theoretical Wuhan coronavirus vaccine isn't known, but as a vaccine against a single strain it ought to be substantially more effective than an average flu shot. While no vaccine has ever been 100% effective, if we write off every treatment in medicine that has a less than 100% effectiveness there would be nothing left.

 

[johnnyG]

Yes. Think of those vaccines for diseases like yellow fever, HPV, MMR, shingles--that only work half the time...!

 

[SomeCallMeChris]

Think of those vaccines for diseases like yellow fever, HPV, MMR, shingles--that only work half the time...!

I'm sure this is sarcasm, but in case anyone were to miss that or were to think the sarcasm was only a remark on the usefulness of herd immunity (i.e., the beneficial effect of partial immunity across the population helping even individuals who are not immune), I would like to note, that for example,

"One dose of MMR vaccine is 93% effective against measles, 78% effective against mumps, and 97% effective against rubella.
Two doses of MMR vaccine are 97% effective against measles and 88% effective against mumps."

Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) Vaccination | CDC

What Everyone should know about the MMR vaccine. What is the MMRV vaccines? Who should and should not get these vaccines? How well do these vaccines work, and what are the possible side effects?

www.cdc.gov

As a rapidly mutating virus I don't know that we can hope for that kind of efficacy against Wuhan coronavirus. On the other hand, if it mutates significantly it will most likely be just another cold virus anyway.

 

[okinawaholic]

We have our third confirmed case now. It looks like there's no connection between the other two at this point as it was out of their initial survey scope.

 

[musicisgood]

Any one here fear any panic yet on the streets or at work?

 

[SmudgyBuddy]

It's true, masks are selling out. I forgot mine, and tried to purchase some at convenience stores, no luck!

 

[Lothor]

Any one here fear any panic yet on the streets or at work?

I heard on the news this morning that someone pressed the emergency stop button on a train because someone nearby was coughing and not wearing a mask, which might suggest that some people are close to panic. However, I was in Tokyo during some of the aftermath of the 2011 disaster and people kept calm outwardly however stressed they were feeling.
Interestingly, the number of cases of conventional influenza is down by about half this year because people are taking care with hygiene.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

I'm sure this is sarcasm

Sadly its not. He did actually lose the plot and thought I was talking about something other than cold and flu vaccinations.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

If you find skipping half the flus you would otherwise catch and diminishing the severity of the rest an attractive proposition, then a flu shot is something you might want to consider.

Sure. But who is also being told to consider allowing their own immune system to work and improve for the exercising of it? I am not anti-vaxx....I will surely want a flu shot if I become super old and immuno-compromised. But I am against unnecessary medical procedures driven by the profit motive. I believe its why we are seeing antibiotic resistant bacteria now....over-use of antibiotics for the sake of profit has put bacterial evolution into over-drive.

 

[TGI-ECT]

There are two areas of concern with this medical trouble we human folks have on our hands.

One is that it seems, as one reporter wrote for the BBC, this can be passed to others as easily as the common cold. I suppose I better go find that and place a link here. I think I read that during this morning's check-the-news session.

The other matter I read out of the Associated Press reporter's writing; there are now people getting sick that the medical professionals cannot figure out the path to how they got sick. I think Iran was cited and maybe that pocket in Northern Italy.

I think there are some other areas where illnesses have surfaced and the medical folks are scratching their heads.

But those two areas of concern are a big worry for the medical professionals who have to make decisions that might help get this under control. If it can be brought under control.

Do y'all have the links in this thread to the appropriate pages at WHO and the CDC? I think those two organizations are basically the frontline of defense outside of mainland China.

 

[musicisgood]

How will this corona virus affect those that have English juku schools?
I think this may be a big concern in the next 2 weeks.
I notice Nova was asking for 2 year contracts for student last year. Join for 2 years and they wave the 2nd year re-admit fee. I think they knew something was to break in China. All these Nova teachers again to be unemployed ?

 

[Lothor]

How will this corona virus affect those that have English juku schools?
I think this may be a big concern in the next 2 weeks.
I notice Nova was asking for 2 year contracts for student last year. Join for 2 years and they wave the 2nd year re-admit fee. I think they knew something was to break in China. All these Nova teachers again to be unemployed ?

So Nova are still up to their dirty tricks in China despite swearing blind in Japan that they are a reformed company.

Going back to your earlier question of panicking, I'm surprised that I haven't seen any evidence of hoarding (apart from the inevitable shortage of masks). I've got a very bad feeling about the virus now because of its widespread distribution in the world and the evidence of asymptomatic transmitters, and I've been discreetly been buying more long-life food than necessary. I saw a recent interview with people in Wuhan and there aren't shortages of food; a delivery system is in place. However, it may be worth checking emergency supplies just in case your part of the world goes into lockdown for a few weeks, which which will lead to panic buying and many people going without.

 

[Mark of Zorro]

Japan Today is really shilling the crap out of the corona virus hype. And so many of the commenters are loving the predictions of doom. Its sad to watch these hairless apes have their fact-free melt downs and drag others who had a shot at being humans along with them.

 

[Lothor]

Japan Today is really shilling the crap out of the corona virus hype. And so many of the commenters are loving the predictions of doom. Its sad to watch these hairless apes have their fact-free melt downs and drag others who had a shot at being humans along with them.

So what's your prediction for how this will play out? I'm not looking for an argument, I'm just interested - as that guy from the WHO said, "All predictions are wrong, all predictions are valuable."
You might find this an interesting read, which is a sober but also scathing article on the Japanese government's handling of the Diamond Princess and the way it is seen as a opportunity by some of the nastier members of the LDP.

Japan’s Coronavirus Cruise Ship Debacle Shows Epidemic Can Be a Gift for Would-Be Dictators

There are many lessons to be learned from the disaster that is the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Yokohama. Some are epidemiological, but the most disturbing are political.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[Mark of Zorro]

So what's your prediction for how this will play out?

I am afraid I don't know what you are asking. How the virus will play out? How governments will respond to it? How the hysteria will play out? How the aftermath will play out?

To be brief Covid-19 will spread until spring has truly sprung and then it will peter out and probably mutate back to a weaker form. Governments will try and take credit for what nature did and maybe even pass some legislation for the next panic. Covid-19 will joint SARS, bird flu, swine flu, zika and MERS in the media blitz history books, although MERS seems to have been more on the "real danger" side. The hysteria and the hysterical will move on to the next hot topic until the next media blitz about some other cold or flu virus in a couple years.

I can be more detailed if you ask a more specific question.