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When Hatoyama Cabinet collapse?

Astroboy

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1. No room for leniency in Hatoyama fund probe
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/editorial/20091205TDY02308.htm

Hatoyama was born in a very rich family. His mother was a daugther of Japan's major tire mfg - Bridgestone. Although prime minister Hatoyama is an adult, he always asked his mother for her pocket money. Then, Hatoyama's mother gave hime 180 million yen annually as "loans" to the prime minister. These payments, which totaled about 1.1 billion yen over about six years. This means his mother transferred a huge amount of money to him and avoided inheritance tax. Meanwhile, this Prime Minister is changing tax policy and raising our tax.

2. No leadership to resolve Futenma issue.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/editorial/20091204TDY02309.htm
Hatoyama's reluctance to resolve the relocation of the US Marine Corp's Futenma Air Base in Okinawa is deteriotaring Japan-USA Security Treaty. In addition, his cabinet's anti-USA attitude may destabilize regional military balance.

3. Contradicting with his Manifesto.
He said his party DPJ will stop wasteful expenditure and curve government-debts, but
Govt eyes extra 100 bil. yen for stimulus measures...
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/20091208TDY01301.htm

I bet on Collapse of Hatoyama's Cabinet By the end of This Year.

What do you think?
 
Astroboy said:
I bet on Collapse of Hatoyama's Cabinet By the end of This Year.
What do you think?
Click to expand...

I bet not. Public support rating is still over 50%, way more than Aso had for a long time before he quit.

That said, I'd like to see Hatoyama do something positive rather than vague and general.
 
The new policymaking system the DPJ is building today by being open about how public money is spent and forcing bureaucrats to account for programs for which they are responsible will stand them in very good stead with voters to assess how the government has performed come election time.

Although I also agree the reported 900-million-yen child benefit for each of the Hatoyama brothers may become a problem and transparency is not a valid excuse for the way ministers have been contradicting one another over supplementary budgets, Futenma, married people's surnames etc.

Still collapse by the end of the year is insane. The Japanese people are even accepting of a consumption tax according to Yomiuri polls. They are cutting the DPJ way more slack than they did to recent LDP prime ministers who had such a dismal record when it came to using the public's money wisely.
 
Dogen Z said:
I bet not. Public support rating is still over 50%, way more than Aso had for a long time before he quit.
That said, I'd like to see Hatoyama do something positive rather than vague and general.
Click to expand...
He needs a heavier right hand man in the cabinet or administration to strategize and play Machiavelli where necessary. I'm not even convinced Ozawa is taking on the role at this point. Hatoyama the dreamer does have some idea of where he wants to take the country seems to have little idea how to go about it. :?
 

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama made a special request that the emperor meet the Chinese guest despite the short notice, his right-hand man and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano said.
"It would be important for the friendly relationship between Japan and China, so I asked the head of the Imperial Household Agency to do the favour if the emperor's health condition permits," Hirano told reporters. Prime Minister Hatoyama, whose centre-left Democratic Party of Japan took power in an electoral landslide in September, has pledged stronger ties with Asia.

But the exceptional move raised eyebrows among Japanese media which said it may be construed as using the emperor for political purposes. Under the post-war constitution, Akihito and members of the world's oldest monarchy serve a largely ceremonial function and are barred from being engaged in political activities.

Hatoyama's aim to utilize emperor for political purpose will cause political frictions in Japan. Not only among politicians but also Japan's voters. I think Hatoyama's Cabinet will see significant fall of supporting ratings.
 
Hatoyama Cabinet supporting ratings continue to decline, according to Yomiuri Shinbun.



Support rate was 75% in September but now 59% in December, while disapproval rate increased from 17% in September to 29% in December.
 
Another opnion poll released by NHK


Support rate dropped by 9%, down to 56% in December, while disapproval rate increased up by 13% to 34% in December.
 
Oh dear, it looks as if the party in power is not popular with people in Opinion polls, this situation is quite common in various different countries, and sometimes is just pure political hype by the opposition.

There are times when opinion polls can be a complete waste of time, and not always true.
 
Astroboy said:
Japan's PM Hatoyama has Decided "Postpone Decision".
Everybody can become Prime Minister of Japan today, I think.
Click to expand...

鳴かぬなら殺してしまえ、時鳥 Nakanunara, koroshiteshimae, hototogisu (If the cuckoo does not sing, kill it.)
鳴かぬなら鳴かして見せよう、時鳥 Nakanunara, nakashitemiseyou, hototogisu (If the cuckoo does not sing, coax it.)
鳴かぬなら鳴くまで待とう、時鳥 Nakanunara, nakumadematou, hototogisu (If the cuckoo does not sing, wait for it.)

たぶん、徳川みたいじゃないか？
 

Interesting analogy.

I would say, IF the cuckoo does not sing, Let's change it.
Next PM Please!
 
The LDP won't be back to PMship for 4 at least years. Since the DPJ has 302 seats (slightly less than two thirds) in the lower house, and the lower house determines the prime minister, DPJ has no reason to give up its power.

And if a DPJ 40-20% DPJ-LDP polling advantage holds until upper house elections next summer, the LDP has to wait 6 years more.
 
Honeymoon over for Hatoyama? Cabinet support rate plummets to 48 percent
The Cabinet's support rate plunged to 48 percent from 62 percent in November, an Asahi Shimbun survey showed, as Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's indecisiveness has increasingly annoyed voters and even government leaders. The nonsupport rate for the Cabinet rose to 34 percent from 21 percent last month, according to the weekend survey.
Seventy-four percent of all respondents said the prime minister has failed to exercise leadership.
The Asahi Shimbun | Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

I think Hatoyama is facing more difficulty ahead.
 
A Jiji poll asked respondents who they think is the most influential actor in the government. 71% said Ozawa Ichiro. Hatoyama was second, with 10%.

Hatoyama the boring is setting policy but he needs to give the perception he hasn't allowed a political vacuum to form and allowed Ozawa's charisma to fill it.

Find me an LDP leader with numbers above 60% and game on ! Who else are they gonna vote for in July? I suspect most people don't even know who Tanigaki is. Koizumi's support rate also hovered below 50 percent for around half of his term.

http://www.jiji.com/jc/zc?k=200912/2009121800631
 
Last edited:
http://mainichi.jp/select/jiken/news/20091218k0000m040157000c.html

The ever-widening, freshly minted hidden contributions to his fund-raising organization lack of evidence finance scandal, huh? :?
 
Japan PM apologises over funding scandal
BBC News - Japan PM apologises over funding scandal

In short, Hatoyama cheated on his tax - succession tax - for past ten years.
But his cabinet asks us (families without kids) to pay more tax. I am very sure that support rate for him and his cabinet will plunge further.
 
Hatoyama cabinet suffers drop in support rate-Kyodo

TOKYO, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Support for Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's cabinet fell sharply over the past month as the public remained unconvinced of his explanation about a funding scandal, Kyodo news agency said on Saturday. A Kyodo News nationwide survey conducted by phone on Friday and Saturday showed the support rating fell 16.5 points to 47.2 percent from the previous poll done about a month ago, the news agency said.
Hatoyama cabinet suffers drop in support rate-Kyodo

Day by Day, support rate has continued to fall. I think .... my prediction (collapse by the end of this year) is still valid.
 
Hatoyama should explain more clearly how his case is different from scandal-ridden LDP politicians he attacked so relentlessly in the past for scapegoating and not accepting punishment for crimes committed by their secretaries. If not for increasing his personal fortune or gaining any illegal profits...then what ?

But he doesn't have to anymore. Whether it his money or his mother's, it is ultimately his maternal grandfather's money; by announcing he is going to pay about 500 million yen in back taxes he is trying to draw a line under the whole thing. Mr. Tanigaki cannot push this too hard either, because people would then start asking questions about Kunio.

In any case, now that the PM is going to do his bit to cut the deficit ;-), the media have happily moved on to Mr. Ozawa's Rikuzankai and its opaque finances, particularly how it came up with 365 million yen for a piece of land in Setagaya. Everything Ozawa says or does is dissected by the press because he is charismatic in an odd sort of way, has interesting things to say, and is always good for headlines, very different from Hatoyama in these respects.
 

Ozawa's a personality, that's for sure!
 
Tokugawa Ieyasu said:
Ozawa's a personality, that's for sure!
Click to expand...
The DPJ, for better or worse, knew exactly Ozawa's baggage it was getting when it merged parties with his to unseat the LDP ― and it has not been disappointed.

It has reached the point Hatoyama in particular and Japanese politics in general may benefit from his departure from the scene. But I'm personally pessimistic that Ozawa will voluntarily step down.
 
Breaking News


House of Representatives member Tomohiro Ishikawa, a former administrative manager of Ozawa's political fund management group, Rikuzan-kai, has just been arrested on charges from the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office tonight (Friday night Jan 15th).

Ozawa's involvement in the fund transfer connected to the land purchase shall been revealed soon.

Ozawa-san ! Your turn is NEXT ! and Hatoyama-san, you are after the next.
Those politician are Shame of Japan.
 
After Hatoyama


So who will be the next PM, Okada? He seems like a stable, straightforward sort, but I wonder if he has any vision for Japan. Maehara may have more vision but I think he's still too impressionable.
 
Tokugawa Ieyasu said:
Politician and corruption, goes together like horse and carriage......

you can't have one without the other!
Click to expand...
Does anyone doubt if Ozawa resigned, the charges would disappear just like they did last spring ??
This is not a exactly battle between honest prosecutors and a corrupt political leader. Ozawa is trying to reform Japan from a technocracy to a democracy. He is the only person in Japan with enough power and the will to crush the country's corrupt bureaucracy.

The bureaucracy knows that and they are trying to destroy him before he destroys them.
If the prosecutors had anything on him, they would have arrested him long ago.

Hell hath no fury like a Japanese civil servant threatened by political change.
 
Does anyone doubt if Ozawa resigned, the charges would disappear just like they did last spring ??
Click to expand...

He cannot escape from the charges as far as his crime is proved. No exception, I think.


That's very convenient words, but violates the constitutional principle of separation of powers. When DPJ took power, anything, charged from the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office (Tokyo Chiken), against ex-opposition party become conspiracy ????

Under the Law, everybody is equal in Japan.

 
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