- 4 Oct 2012
- 2,427
- 316
Lothor earlier pointed out that irregular testing/reporting means artificially low numbers on weekends. Today is Sunday and yesterday was Saturday.
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A little bit of good news for Tokyoites; the number of new cases in Tokyo today (12th) is 166. This is down from the 197 of yesterday as mentioned above by musicisgood. Long may this trend continue.
I only hope these numbers strengthen the resolve to stay inside for a couple of weeks.
apparently there are big fluctuations due to the irregular way cases are reported and the reduced amount of testing at weekends.
I heard that the number of cases of flu was about half its normal levels late winter, probably due to increased hygiene and mask use. Interestingly, the overall death rate was down in Britain for the first few months of the year until the drop got cancelled out by the deaths due to the virus.Look for numbers to explode today around 6 pm. Just my thinking.
And when the heck are they going to start testing the public. Its insane not to start testing now.
By the way, anyone have the current number of deaths from the flu so far this year here in Japan.
I heard that the number of cases of flu was about half its normal levels late winter, probably due to increased hygiene and mask use. Interestingly, the overall death rate was down in Britain for the first few months of the year until the drop got cancelled out by the deaths due to the virus.
You've never said how that could be accomplished. Especially in Japan. Over 30% of the population is over 60. And considering that 25-50% of the virus carriers are asymptomatic that strategy would be virtually impossible imo.Well lets say not much good, and with cancelling school, a heck of a lot of bad. As I have often said, I would have approached this from the angle of isolating those most susceptible rather than everybody else. As I have also said, only spring is really going to slow this down.
I don't think doctors are not much of a factor at all. They only deal with the sick. By the time people are in doctors' care or hospitalized they have already likely spread the virus. I think when it's all said and done they will discover the virus was a lot more active and spreading earlier than thought. Probably plenty of elderly died from pneumonia or flu-like symptoms without raising any eyebrows.Of course they cannot STOP it. But they can SLOW it by detecting Covid 19 patients and isolating them and also by properly handling, storing and preparing for burial those that have died.
I'm talking about warm places like Okinawa, Hong Kong, etc. Based on the numbers in such places my guess is that warmer weather will help but it won't be a panacea.It IS spring. But the virus takes one to two weeks for symptoms to appear from infection. And if one were infected on a wintery day and the following two weeks were spring like, its not likely much difference to whether one will show symptoms or not.
You need to be specific about what areas you are claiming has had spring like weather since when exactly. I do not keep track of regional weather patterns.
Poster by the name of Majestic also pointed this out last Friday, and posted graphs which clearly show the dips happening every Monday as a result of timing of the tests and the results coming in.Lothor earlier pointed out that...
Look for numbers to explode today around 6 pm. Just my thinking.
You've never said how that could be accomplished.
Probably plenty of elderly died from pneumonia or flu-like symptoms without raising any eyebrows.
I think when it's all said and done they will discover the virus was a lot more active and spreading earlier than thought.
I'm talking about warm places like Okinawa, Hong Kong, etc.
I would think they could compare mortality rates and causes of death to get a pretty good idea after the fact without actual confirmation of tissue samples.That could go the opposite way too if we find that the less intensive screening tests were producing a ton of false positives as some people allege.
And given as this is Japan and nearly all the bodies get cremated, they better have taken a boat load of lung tissue samples and stored and catalogued them for your assertion to pass, but I seriously doubt that happened.
I would think they could compare mortality rates and causes of death to get a pretty good idea after the fact without actual confirmation of tissue samples.
For example if death from "pneumonia" was significantly elevated the last few months as compared to previous years it could be a clue.
Have you asked before?
What difference does it make if it's a secondary infection or not? The virus is still the underlying trigger. Technically the virus isn't killing anybody, it's the body's reaction that is killing people. Cytokine storms and the like.A clue yes. But it also has some serious difficulties. Its one thing if a healthy, young person has pneumonia and dies. You are pretty safe concluding it was pneumonia that did it. But if someone is old and has other health problems then you may need a very robust autopsy to determine what really killed them....assuming it really was just one thing that ended their life.
And as I was thinking at the beginning of all this Covid 19/ Sars 2 situation, maybe its not directly the virus but secondary bacterial and/or fungal infections doing the killing. Seems unlikely at this point but it does help me reconcile the (apparent) concentration of deaths, rates, and overwhelmed systems in large cities as opposed to small towns. After all, even the doctors and scientists working on it can get over-focused on things like the virus to the point that bacteria and fungus get ignored. It took quite some time to even have that posited as a theory for the deaths to the Spanish flu.
I don't think I asked before. And I'm not asking now. It was just an observation. You seem to be continually complaining about the actions being taken without providing (workable) alternate solutions. Without combing through all your posts and going by memory you are mainly advocating isolating the most vulnerable people somehow and waiting until spring. That approach ignores the growth pattern of the virus and the way it is spreading, often by asymptomatic carriers. And the fact that it's not only at-risk people that get harmed. Unlucky younger people too. Even those that survive may end up with permanent damage. So you really seem to be making an argument that it's ok to have extra dead and damaged people as long as measures affecting the economy isn't taken. (Back to your early arguments comparing this thing to influenza). So then it becomes an actuarial calculation. How much is human life worth, what are the economic effects of various measures, etc. and based on that what is the best course of action. But I doubt you're even doing that. It seems like you're sitting in your armchair or 座椅子 and just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.mdchachi, I don't know why you did not answer this direct question in you last post, so I ask you again.
I don't think I asked before. And I'm not asking now. It was just an observation. You seem to be continually complaining about the actions being taken without providing (workable) alternate solutions.
That approach ignores the growth pattern of the virus and the way it is spreading, often by asymptomatic carriers.
And the fact that it's not only at-risk people that get harmed.
But I doubt you're even doing that. It seems like you're sitting in your armchair or 座椅子 and just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.
So you really seem to be making an argument that it's ok to have extra dead and damaged people as long as measures affecting the economy isn't taken.
What difference does it make if it's a secondary infection or not?
Technically the virus isn't killing anybody, it's the body's reaction that is killing people. Cytokine storms and the like.
Yes you keep saying that without showing how that might work in real life. So far "volunteer isolation as much as possible" hasn't worked anywhere.No it doesn't. Isolation does not mean hug and kiss those who show no symptoms...lick their hands even.
I also earlier said that those who care for them need to also isolate as much as possible. Are you not paying any attention or are you just desperate to annoy me?
You don't have to respect me. You just need to be civil. I don't respect you if it helps. When I came back after my hiatus and noticed you were active, the first thing I thought was "oh the misogynist is still here." And it had been years since I'd seen any of your posts. (Note I'm not calling you names that you haven't called yourself.)I addressed that too and again you accuse me of ignoring something. Its the same every cold and flu season, even to death. I am not ignoring anything.
I have to "respect" you because its part of the terms here. But you clearly are not deserving of it.
Well at least you have lots of free time so good for you.If I like a clean blackboard I am going to complain every time you write something on it. Yes, I know from your view that every time I complain its going to seem contrarian and somewhere I explained this as well.
But if my position is to basically do nothing, then I am going counter all the million things people say that amount to doing something.
No arguments with this except none of this seems relevant to the current pandemic. Not sure which fallacy this falls under. Slippery slope? Begging the question? Or maybe Reductio ad absurdum.I have said this many many times, but life is risk and people die. They also get injured and damaged. I also said certain actions can make everything worse and I was not just talking about economy. And I also said to imagine if the gas stops...cause then the food stops...and then the shooting starts. How well do people recover from excessive lead in their system? Or kids from severe malnutrition?
I didn't act or insinuate that you are rich, selfish or shortsighted. You just haven't demonstrated much understanding despite having lots of knowledge, opinions and arguments, that's all (imo).I am not a rich man so stop acting like my stake in the economy is nothing but a new yacht next year. I am not a selfish man so stop acting like I am just worried about myself. I am not a short sighted man so stop acting like my concern is only for today and tomorrow.
And for the love of all that is holy stop ACCUSING me of things you could dismiss yourself my merely reading my prior posts OR ask me about.
In fact, if you could just refrain from even addressing me, that would be nice because I hardly think you are even capable of learning.
That's all well and good but every time (again going by memory here) you've brought up secondary reasons for mortality, you've used it to minimize the disease as if that would makes it less serious.It means we might be better off with totally different approaches such as ensuring that hospitals and workers there are better sterilized. It might mean that instead of anti-viral we should be focused on being anti-fungal. It might mean that instead of going to hospitals people should be treated from home. The difference could be massive. The difference could be life-saving.
Yes you keep saying that without showing how that might work in real life. So far "volunteer isolation as much as possible" hasn't worked anywhere.
Or if it has, you haven't mentioned it. You could point to Sweden I guess but their story is not yet complete.
Hey folks, watch this. Its in English. Its only up for a few more days.
COVID-19: Preventing an Explosive Surge of Infections - NHK Documentary | NHK WORLD-JAPAN On Demand
The fight against the coronavirus has entered a new phase in Japan. Tokyo and other major cities are experiencing a surge in the number of COVID-19 cases. And many of the infection routes are untraceable. An explosion of cases could collapse the Japanese medical system. NHK speaks with experts...www3.nhk.or.jp
Nicely written. The reporting by the Japanese media is maddeningly vague when you want precision and provides way too much detail when little is necessary (on a hot summer's day, who gives a damn that it reached 39.4 degrees in Kumagaya but only 38.2 degrees in Omiya?). In particular, the news keeps stressing the anxiety ('fuan') of it all, as if that's the worst possible aspect of the pandemic. Anyone would think that the news was designed not to inform!They just vaguely mention that people with other conditions are worried they may not be able to get care if the system is filled with corona patients. But unless you were paying strict attention and had the knowledge and experience to suss out that that little girl was NOT suffering from Covid-19, you would think she has a breathing tube and is writhing on the floor because of corona. So in particular, the irresponsible bastards just terrorized children and a whole slew of adults not up to par.
They speak of opening schools safely but safe for who??? The kids are at less risk than they are with the flu every year!