COVID-19 Coronavirus: situation in Japan

Lothor · 18 Jul 2020

I don't normally defend Abe but I think that excluding Tokyo is a perfectly reasonable thing to do. It will greatly reduce the impact of the campaign of course, but it seems OK - for the moment - to encourage people in the relatively unaffected parts of the country to visit each other. Yes, it's 'unfair' to Tokyo, but it has received so much investment, which benefits its residents, over the past few years because of the Olympics at the expense of other regions, that I'm quite happy to sit this one out. Unfortunately the campaign seems to be done through the behemoth travel companies such as JTB, rather than directly through hotel owners, giving it the appearance of Abe doing a favour to his friends.

As for gatherings of up to 5000 people. It much depends on the event. I've been very impressed with the people who run Japan's two main sports - football and baseball - who were cancelling matches as far back as late February when Abe and Koike were pretending everything was OK, and representatives from the two sports got together very early to share ideas. I'm confident that most of the stadiums have the logistics to cope with 5000 people (a tenth of the capacity of FC Tokyo's ground) at a low risk of the virus, and I'd be prepared to go to a match. On the other hand, a nightclub in Roppongi with 200 people could be very high risk.

thomas · 21 Jul 2020

While the officially reported numbers are still bouncing a lot (237 new infections today in Tokyo, 72 in Osaka, 50 in Aichi, 27 in Kyoto), Asahi posted an interesting article this morning on how these numbers are compiled. They're not sent by pony express, but - you might have guessed it - are faxed from 31 health centres across Tokyo to two fax machines at the Tokyo metropolitan government (one sheet per patient). Releasing the redacted details takes three days.

Mind-boggling.

Compiling daily virus tally in Tokyo involves '3-day time lag'

Every morning, two fax machines at a Tokyo metropolitan government office churn out reports that will be compiled into a highly-awaited number: the capital's daily tally of new COVID-19 cases. The reports are faxed to the metropolitan government's task force on combatting infectious diseases from 31 public health centres in Tokyo. The deadline for the faxes is 9 a.m. for the release of the new infection figure later in the day. The public health centres fax an A-4 size sheet for each new patient. If a centre registers 10 cases in its jurisdiction, it must send 10 separate reports to the task force. The day's tally of new COVID-19 cases reflects all reports sent to the task force between 9 a.m. the previous day and 9 a.m. that morning. The deadline is set early to give officials time to compile reference numbers and prepare a press release for that day, according to a Tokyo official involved in the task. The reference numbers include the average ratio of COVID-19 patients whose route of infection is unknown over a week, one of the gauges the metropolitan government uses to assess the spread of the disease. After the 9 a.m. deadline, metropolitan officials ask public health centre workers about the movement of the newly infected people and where they contracted the virus. After these inquiries, the officials announce details on daily new cases, such as the number by age group and the routes of transmission, around 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. But sometimes, the daily tally is rushed to Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike and other senior officials in the morning. That is why news outlets, including The Asahi Shimbun, TV broadcasters and digital media, can flash reports on the daily count in the afternoon after reporters gather information from those officials. But the daily count does not reflect the number of infections confirmed during the most recent 24 hours. There is a time lag of "about three days" between positive tests for the novel coronavirus and the metropolitan government's announcement of those cases, an official explained. When positive results of diagnostic or antigen tests are returned, the doctors in charge compile reports on the new cases and fax them to the public health centre in their jurisdiction. The reports include the name, address and symptoms developed by the individual whose infection was confirmed. Public health centre workers then must confirm the content of the reports and forward them to the metropolitan government's task force. But first, the workers blacken out personal information on the patients as a precaution against mistakenly faxing the reports to the wrong place. The entire process after the discovery of the positive test results until the release of new daily numbers takes about three days. That time lag and the fact that the daily number announced is actually days' old have raised suspicions by some on the internet that metropolitan officials may be manipulating the number of new COVID-19 cases. Some Tokyo officials acknowledged that they could have done a better job of explaining to the public how the COVID-19 daily reports are compiled. "We cannot blame them for raising doubts," one official said. "We should have fully explained the process."

mdchachi · 21 Jul 2020

thomas said:
While the officially reported numbers are still bouncing a lot (237 new infections today in Tokyo, 72 in Osaka, 50 in Aichi, 27 in Kyoto), Asahi posted an interesting article this morning on how these numbers are compiled. They're not sent by pony express, but - you might have guessed it - are faxed from 31 health centres across Tokyo to two fax machines at the Tokyo metropolitan government (one sheet per patient). Releasing the redacted details takes three days.

Mind-boggling.

Compiling daily virus tally in Tokyo involves '3-day time lag'

Can I at least hold out hope that the machines are modern enough such that the faxes are received electronically and are not actually printed out?

thomas · 21 Jul 2020

mdchachi said:
Can I at least hold out hope that the machines are modern enough such that the faxes are received electronically and are not actually printed out?

I'm sure they are printed, because they need to be countersigned and hanko sealed.

musicisgood · 22 Jul 2020

Elections are over. 4 day holiday now. Can't have people traveling. My cycling and camping for the season is now in quicksand.

thomas · 23 Jul 2020

musicisgood said:
Elections are over. 4 day holiday now. Can't have people traveling. My cycling and camping for the season is now in quicksand.

Nothing speaks against a little cycling, as it's socially distanced.

Meanwhile, more testing leads to new record-shattering numbers of infections: 795 new cases throughout Japan on Wednesday, 980 on Thursday, as well as a staggering 366 new cases in Tokyo alone on Thursday. According to Ms Koike today some 4,900 tests were conducted, but they did not include results from the targeted testing of a high-risk demographic. Go To Travel: definitely not recommended at this long weekend in Japan.

Tokyo logs 366 new coronavirus cases, topping 300 for first time

The single-day record came as Koike requested residents stay home as much as possible during the four-day weekend due to a spike in cases.

www.japantimes.co.jp

Japan's daily virus infections top 980, record for 2nd day - The Mainichi

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan reported on Thursday more than 980 new daily coronavirus infections, marking a record for a second straight day in a resurgence

mainichi.jp

Davey · 25 Jul 2020

Guess there go the plans to travel during the summer holidays.

Wondering how long this is going to take and how and if it will get worse in autumn/winter

thomas · 25 Jul 2020

Davey said:
Guess there go the plans to travel during the summer holidays.
Wondering how long this is going to take and how and if it will get worse in autumn/winter

One of our clients is responsible for product development at one of the larger pharmaceutical companies here in Japan. He told me that clinical testing and approval of new drugs and vaccines take between 5-10 years under normal circumstances; if you do speed things up or use an already approved drug, it might still take one or two years. So in all likelihood, there won't be any coronavirus vaccine before the summer of 2021 (farewell, Olympics). Once we do have an effective vaccine, how long will it take to have the entire population vaccinated?

musicisgood · 27 Jul 2020

I remember posting that Japan will see 2000 to 5000 new cases a day. It was harsh news, but I based that on the events that were taking place in Northern Italy at the time. I now don't think them figures are to far off .

johnnyG · 27 Jul 2020

A "reality check" on a vaccine:

A Vaccine Reality Check

So much hope is riding on a breakthrough, but a vaccine is only the beginning of the end.

www.theatlantic.com

thomas · 27 Jul 2020

johnnyG said:
A "reality check" on a vaccine:

A Vaccine Reality Check

So much hope is riding on a breakthrough, but a vaccine is only the beginning of the end.

www.theatlantic.com

Very interesting read! We'll be wearing masks next year, too.

musicisgood · 27 Jul 2020

thomas said:
Very interesting read! We'll be wearing masks next year, too.

I wonder if they try the trials on prisoners in prisons.

musicisgood · 27 Jul 2020

COVID-19 PCR test fact-finding and infection promotion task force for infection control Interim report commentary version

Interim report explanation version
At the Japan Medical Association COVID-19 Experts' Meeting, we set up the "PCR Test Actual Survey and Usage Promotion Task Force for COVID-19 Infection Control" to promote the use of appropriate PCR tests based on the actual surveys It has been published as an interim report (May 13), which is a summary of measures and recommendations for extracting and arranging the issues and solving problems.

Along with the resumption of social and economic activities after the cancellation of the emergency declaration, the number of infected people will increase rapidly after June. While the environment and system are being improved to promote the use of PCR tests, information and ideas regarding their use are not well organized. The Task Force has considered that it is necessary to promote PCR testing in terms of both infection control in the second and third waves and maintenance of socio-economic activities. Therefore, this time, we have created a guide to help PCR users understand.

Executive summary
Purpose of PCR test
It is important to properly use the PCR test for COVID-19 infection control, after understanding the purpose and significance of the test.

The purpose and significance of the PCR test are as follows.

Patient diagnosis
Public health infection control
Maintaining socio-economic activities through healthcare
Basic information for policy making

Concept based on inspection performance
Consider the use of PCR testing from three perspectives: prior probability (prevalence), population risk (public impact), and economic impact.

If the prior probability is relatively high:
- Active epidemiological surveys such as cluster measures and medical treatment of individual infectious diseases
If the prior probability is low (or unknown), but the collective risk (public impact) or economic impact is high:
- Airport quarantine, nosocomial infection control, institutional infection control for the elderly and welfare facilities
Asymptomatic patients with low prior probability but significant socio-economic impact:
- International exchange, music/sports events, tourism, healthcare for certain high-risk occupations

It is desirable that 1 and 2 carry out the PCR test of the administrative inspection, and 3 carry out by the company/own expense.

Considering the purpose and significance of these, it is necessary to expand the use of PCR without depending on the prior probability, while ensuring and maintaining the accuracy.

Point of use of PCR test according to purpose

Patient care
1. In medical care of patients, PCR tests are performed based on the notification standards required for administrative tests. Based on the performance of various tests (specimen type, test method), it is operated separately for symptomatic and asymptomatic patients.
  Patients with clinically suspected symptoms will be diagnosed comprehensively by adding a chest CT scan.
  In hospitalization of asymptomatic patients, in order to prevent nosocomial infections, we aim to minimize the risk by PCR tests and strict behavioral restrictions prior to hospitalization.
2. When using an administrative inspection that has been covered by insurance, it is necessary to prepare, offer, specify, and contract as an inspection cooperation medical institution that is a facility requirement, after understanding the specific procedure and mechanism of insurance medical fee. ..
3. The regional outpatient/inspection center, which is outsourced to the regional medical association, must be registered as a collaborative registration clinic and used based on patient referrals.
Public health infection control
- In active epidemiological surveys by public health centers and public health research institutes, it is indispensable to expand PCR tests and shorten the number of days until reporting in order to prevent the spread of infection in the region.
Use for socio-economic activities (healthcare framework)
- In order to control infection and continue social and economic activities, it is necessary to promote PCR testing within the framework of healthcare.
Basic information for policy making
- PCR tests in patient care, public health, and healthcare are important for surveillance of outbreaks and provide basic information for policy making.

Based on this manual, it is hoped that proper use will be promoted with proper understanding for each purpose of PCR test. If the PCR inspection system is expanded and a rapid reporting system is established, it is expected that the PCR test will be utilized as an index for judging the start of social and economic activities and the basic evaluation of the effect of countermeasures.

thomas · 29 Jul 2020

While tons of unwanted "abenomasks" are shipped abroad by NGOs and private initiatives (to the Philippines, for example), the government plans on distributing another 80 million of the unpopular masks to healthcare facilities and pregnant women. I find that disregard for fiscal austerity and the blatant lack of political focus highly disturbing.

The Asahi Shimbun obtained all 37 written contracts the health ministry has signed so far with contractors for the government's mask-distribution project. The contracts and other data obtained from sources showed that about 287 million cloth face masks were distributed or ordered, and around 50.7 billion yen ($480 million) was spent on the project. The spending amount includes an estimated 10.7 billion yen in administrative costs for delivering the masks by mail, setting up and operating call centres and inspecting the products. There was no bidding process for any of the contracts. About 130 million of the 287 million masks were sent to households at a cost of 26 billion yen, while around 24.7 billion yen was spent to deliver roughly 157 million masks to nursing care homes and other facilities. By mid-April, about 20 million masks had already been delivered to the targets of the new mask campaign. In late June, the government started sending about 40 million masks to them. The ministry official said the government wants to deliver the masks "as quickly as possible" since roughly 80 million masks have yet to be sent, excluding those for pregnant women.

Source: Ministry to send 80 million more masks despite low demand : The Asahi Shimbun

misternada · 29 Jul 2020

コロナ差別に負けない！

Apparently a lot of foreigners in Japan are victim of discrimination related to COVID-19, just saw a poor cutie talk about it on TV.
From what I understood she was in a park with a friend and some old jerk dare came to here and told her to leave 「コロナなのに来るな !」something like that.
Anyway glad to see other people have also the guts to speak about it !

Davey · 29 Jul 2020

2 kids at my son's their school got it. Different grades and luckily the holiday has already started for them but still worries me just what can we do besides basic precautions.

Abenomask... Can't believe they are thinking of using money like that again, don't they have better things to spend it on?

Lothor · 29 Jul 2020

And a kid at my younger boy's school has been tested. Friday, when the term ends for many students, might be a good time to declare a new state of emergency.

johnnyG · 29 Jul 2020

I was cooking and so not next to the TV, but I think it said 1000 cases today...!

thomas · 29 Jul 2020

@Lothor, @Davey, were they able to trace the route of infection? Did they lock down the schools?

Lothor · 30 Jul 2020

thomas said:
@Lothor, @Davey, were they able to trace the route of infection? Did they lock down the schools?

Waiting for the result. School not locked down though. Son didn't look too amused when I asked him if he'd brought the coronavirus with him when he came home from school!

JohnnyG - over 1200!

thomas · 30 Jul 2020

And at last, Iwate reported its first case of COVID-19 yesterday, as did the island of Sado in Niigata.

One of the new infection cases in Iwate Prefecture was a man in his 40s from the prefectural capital of Morioka who had camped with three friends in the same tent in the Kanto region. One of his friends tested positive for the virus, so the Morioka camper also took the test, according to the prefectural government.

The Sado case was a lady in her 60s who hadn't travelled to the mainland in months.

First infections in Iwate among high of 1,264 around nation | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

As mentioned by @Lothor above, yesterday saw a record 1,264 cases of new infections nationwide. Tokyo reported "nearly" 370 cases today.

Tokyo asks for early business closures amid record daily infections - The Mainichi

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The Tokyo metropolitan government requested on Thursday that establishments serving alcohol and karaoke parlors again close early aft

mainichi.jp

mdchachi · 31 Jul 2020

thomas said:
And at last, Iwate reported its first case of COVID-19 yesterday, as did the island of Sado in Niigata.

The Sado case was a lady in her 60s who hadn't travelled to the mainland in months.

First infections in Iwate among high of 1,264 around nation | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

As mentioned by @Lothor above, yesterday saw a record 1,264 cases of new infections nationwide. Tokyo reported "nearly" 370 cases today.

Tokyo asks for early business closures amid record daily infections - The Mainichi

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The Tokyo metropolitan government requested on Thursday that establishments serving alcohol and karaoke parlors again close early aft

mainichi.jp

Clearly they need to reduce testing to get the numbers down and get this thing under control.

My company's Tokyo office is taking decisive action. Previously they were going to the office 3 days/week. Now they will go 2 days/week.
I'm not sure if this strong response is because of the higher numbers in general or because a case of the virus was found in their building recently (different floor/different company).

thomas · 31 Jul 2020

mdchachi said:
My company's Tokyo office is taking decisive action. Previously they were going to the office 3 days/week. Now they will go 2 days/week. I'm not sure if this strong response is because of the higher numbers in general or because a case of the virus was found in their building recently (different floor/different company).

Probably both. I guess your company's decision might also be based on this "request":

Article expired

News on Japan, Business News, Opinion, Sports, Entertainment and More

www.japantimes.co.jp

And another daily record yesterday, Thursday: 1,305 new cases nationwide.

Japan confirms 1,305 coronavirus cases, another record - The Mainichi

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan marked on Thursday a second day of record infections of the novel coronavirus at 1,305 fresh cases nationwide, with Tokyo and o

mainichi.jp

thomas · 31 Jul 2020

Today's news roundup is all about shattering records. Again.

Tokyo reported 463 new cases. The tally for July amounts to 6,466 infections, almost the double of the previous record of 3,748 last April. Nationwide, there were over 1,500 cases reported.

Source: http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13594477

In light of the latest trends, Mrs Koike considers calling a new state of emergency for Tokyo. Tonight, Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki declared am SOE for his prefecture.

Tokyo may call state of emergency as daily coronavirus cases soar

Gov. Yuriko Koike on Friday said Tokyo may need to declare its own state of emergency after announcing a record-breaking 463 coronavirus cases. “Tokyo is r

www.japantimes.co.jp

Meanwhile, the government have given up on their plan to distribute another 80m of their "abenomasks". They really cave in quickly under public pressure.

Source: VOX POPULI: No takers out there for another 80 million abenomasks : The Asahi Shimbun

okinawaholic · 1 Aug 2020

We're in a bad place here as with the 2nd wave (most likely due to the GoTo campaign), our hospitals are overflooded at a 104.2% occupancy rate for COVID-19 patients and 22 asymptomatic are awaiting a bed.

Further, one hospital treating a couple of patients got a nurse infected.

How much worse can it get with 71 infections in a day?! (Yesterday)

Still awaiting today's cases... which will most likely be lower, but, I guarantee you we'll see high double digits to triple digits in the coming days as weekends are generally low reporting while weekdays are high.

COVID-19 Coronavirus: situation in Japan

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