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When will the Japanese yen come down drastically in value?

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It was very low last year in August with respect to the Singapore dollar (100yen = SGD1.28), now it's at about 100yen = SGD1.56.

Last month, it was as high as 100yen = SGD1.70.

I wonder if it'll come down to 100yen = SGD1.40 soon...

What are the economic forces that influence the exchange rate of the yen with respect to other currencies?
 

Dogen Z

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It was very low last year in August with respect to the Singapore dollar (100yen = SGD1.28), now it's at about 100yen = SGD1.56.
Last month, it was as high as 100yen = SGD1.70.
I wonder if it'll come down to 100yen = SGD1.40 soon...
What are the economic forces that influence the exchange rate of the yen with respect to other currencies?

I think the yen may approach 105 yen per U.S.$ in the next few months (this is based on yen futures prices, and you'll have to figure out the Singapore rate for that). After that, I dunno (long-term futures have a high premium to allow for large errors), but the smart money believes there will be an upward trend.

According to theory, the exchange rate between 2 countries is determined by their relative real interest rate (nominal interest rate - inflation), which is determined by their relative economic growth (see Fisher Effect). However, this theory assumes that markets are rational and there is no intervention, which are rarely the case. Under current circumstances, you can throw out this theory. Your guess is about as good as mine. 😊
 
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JerseyBoy

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Playing foreign exchanges are a tricky game.

The current market is the wild West. The previous formulas and conventions do not apply. You should wait till after the upcoming G20 meeting in LON. The crisis has spread to many major countries and the solutions to the problem require the international cooperation.

If you don't see a good outcome from the G20 meeting, the yen will go down further. But, other Asian currencies (except for the Chinese yuan) will fall as well.
 

caster51

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daily
it seems it need adjustment more?
it said it must rise for STC
1237736191-1.jpg

weekly
simple returning will be finished?
however MACD is ......................

monthly still dead
however price and STC are divergence
you can hope it:p
1237736151-1.jpg
 
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mobile1

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It was very low last year in August with respect to the Singapore dollar (100yen = SGD1.28), now it's at about 100yen = SGD1.56.
Last month, it was as high as 100yen = SGD1.70.
I wonder if it'll come down to 100yen = SGD1.40 soon...
What are the economic forces that influence the exchange rate of the yen with respect to other currencies?

The Japanese Yen is considered a carry trade, and acts as well as a "flight to safety" as a safehaven currency. During the ******'s rally, the Japanese Yen should fall about 10-15% but around autumn, when the ******'s rally in stocks fall, we should see the Yen becoming bullish. If you are wondering if yen will fall back down to 2007 levels, I would say no. But I would buy up Yen during the end of the ******'s rally before Helicopter Ben brings about hyperinflation to the world.
 

JerseyBoy

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Japan's economy will stay weak for a few more years at least (possibly for a few decades). So, I will bet the yen will not gain much against other major currencies. The interest rates are low in the major countries (EU nations, the USA, and others). That precludes the need for the yen carry-trade. There is not benefit using the yen to borrow money. You can do that in any other main markets without being exposed to the Japanese market.
 

mobile1

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Japan's economy will stay weak for a few more years at least (possibly for a few decades). So, I will bet the yen will not gain much against other major currencies. The interest rates are low in the major countries (EU nations, the USA, and others). That precludes the need for the yen carry-trade. There is not benefit using the yen to borrow money. You can do that in any other main markets without being exposed to the Japanese market.

I agree with you in that due to the banks worldwide cutting back the interest rates, the need for the Japanese yen as a carry trade would not be as necessary. But, the Japanese yen has risen sharply in comparison to the Canadian dollar.
 

JerseyBoy

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But, the Japanese yen has risen sharply in comparison to the Canadian dollar.
The exchange rates go up and down all the time. So, there is no surprise the yen has gained over other currencies. The fundamentals of Japanese economy are very weak and that should reflect the long term prospect on the yen (ie. no further gain if not a significant decline). The deflationary pressure on its economy will certainly dampen any hope of its economic recovery any time soon, as it could be stuck in the deflationary downward spiral for years to come.
 

Astroboy

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So even if the Western world manages to fix its banking system, the Fed's money printing could well be stoking up the next financial crisis. The dollar carry-trade. You heard it here first.
Cheap dollars are sowing the seeds of the next world crisis

Fed's QE/Lower base rate of USD is now making USD cheaper & cheaper. So the world investors (mostly US investors) borrow USD and invest in emerging markets to benefit from the margin as world investors know the future of USD shall be further down.

This time, we don't see "Mrs Watanabe", but we may be seeing "Mrs Smith" ?
 

JerseyBoy

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There are so many variables in the foreign exchange markets. Central banks, governments, speculators, financiers, and other players all do their own tricks to try to move the market to their own advantage. It would be tough for a small time individual investor (or speculator) to make good money from the foreign exchange as he/she will be just a pawn in the hands of manipulated markets.
 
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