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Typhoon 1919 / Hagibis

TGI-ECT

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Okey-dokey, folks, I am posting simply as a safety reminder, in case there are people who view this and have been so busy that they haven't yet allowed themselves to realize we have an intruder heading toward heavily populated areas that could possibly cause trouble.

Of course, this typhoon probably thinks we are the intruders upon its own planet, but we don't have any ability to debate the typhoon on that point.

Seriously, though, this one is becoming a growing concern at this work station as I track it.

Let me show you something:

JREF_022_TY1919Post-ImageA.jpg


That clearly indicates that some people at JMA are beginning to have concerns themselves.

That is Saturday 0300hrs JST until Sunday 0300hrs JST and that takes the typhoon right over the Kanto area.

True, it could weaken somewhat before it hits land and it could weaken faster than they anticipate after it makes landfall, but there isn't any good reason to bet on that and ignore it. Get that barbecue grill indoors, or I may find it in my yard and I won't give it back, if it is a better one than the one I already have.

And be sure any schedules you have in mind take into account that an entity called Hagibis might want to mess with your schedule. Remember, Hagibis might think YOU are the intruder.
 

Lothor

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It looks like it's going to make landfall with a strength of about 945 hPa, which will be the strongest typhoon I've experienced while I've been here. Also the uncertainty of the path seems to be very small with this one, so take precautions.
I hope I'm not scaremongering here but I keep remembering that the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake also occurred during a typhoon and I'm concerned that the unusually low atmospheric pressure may have an effect on Tokyo's volatile tectonic plates. May be worth checking that your emergency food and water supplies are in order.
 

TGI-ECT

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This one has the JMA folks a bit more than confused and after some work I finally figured out why.

A high pressure area is what might be causing this typhoon to be acting as if it has had one martini too many. That is their favorite drink, yes? The dry martini. I mean, they are so wet, and so a dry martini fits just fine.

Anyway, these two highs are having the influence that is causing some weather people to have to guess more than they'd care to:

HIGH 1018 HPA AT 37N 127E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 39N 149E EAST 25 KT.

That is from JMA.

It is that first one moving slowly to the east that is probably causing the new changes. Now it appears this typhoon is going to follow in the same path as that other one that went to Chiba. The path has changed that much since my last archive work I did on this storm.

By the way, let me give you an interesting link that is so much clearer:


I don't think you'll have problems with that link, but if you do, please let me know and I'll work around that for you.

Anyway, the bottom line is the typhoon doesn't appear to want to land in Kanagawa Prefecture and it will be a little later than what was forecasted earlier today.

But we are still receiving some rather confusing information from JMA and so the safety warning I posted earlier stands as is. Be careful, folks. Especially, now, if you live in Chiba. Let's hope TEPCO gets it right this time.
 

musicisgood

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It may be a bit too soon to say much about the typhoon, but I sure hope it doesn't do any damage , the Japanese people have suffered enough this year.
 

thomas

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I really like windy.com’s visualization:



Compare it with the good old JMA website:


Runner-up:


Anyhow, stay safe everyone! We’re stocking up tonight, just in case.
 

TGI-ECT

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Those are some interesting pages the links take us to, thomas. Thank you.

But, with respect, sometimes plain speak is best and I should have posted this link yesterday and was stupid and didn't:


You can see the plain speak is now that we can expect what they write as the following for the Yokosuka area:

<> - <> - <> Copy Starts <> - <> - <>
The northern bands of Tropical Cyclone 20W (Hagibis) will produce rain showers with isolated thunderstorms throughout the day. Winds continue to increase with small craft conditions beginning overnight. Hagibis arrives tomorrow with heavy rains and gusting winds in excess of 90 knots by early evening. Calm conditions return Sunday morning with the passage of the cyclone.
<> - <> - <> Copy Ends <> - <> - <>

Now that is the landing page and I apologize to those who might be offended by that being a military site, but the truth is that plain speak can be very useful. The absolute first rule in safety is to understand what the heck is going on and the truth is that JMA leaves folks guessing sometimes.

Now there is another development and I checked both the JMA site and the Navy site and it is clear the professionals now have Hagibis tracking a tad more back to the west, which does take it farther to the west into Kanagawa at landfall time. That's no small matter, and please pay heed to that.

Strength upon landfall still could be weaker than what they think to date, but that isn't such a big deal as to reduce a need for safety precautions around your home or business.

Oh yes, I put together a small image from what JMA provided us at 0300hrs this morning:

JREF_022_TY1919Post-ImageB.jpg


You can clearly see the track is now back to the west by a bit. Well, the use of "back to" would only be of significance to you if you have been tracking this as I have been doing. It was originally farther to the west and then moved to the east, as I noted yesterday afternoon, and now it is back a tad more to the west.

Please stay safe folks. Common sense is your best protection. Oh yes, if your community asks you to move to a location the government folks feel provides you with better safety, maybe it isn't a bad idea to give that due consideration.

Let me acknowledge JMA by offering a thank you to those staff folks and please don't be upset that I cropped your image from your website, but we don't need that whole image here to make the point about the track of the storm and ultimately to provide an alert for safety purposes.
 
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TGI-ECT

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It wouldn't be polite to not post updates just because the professionals seem to be in disagreement.

This shouldn't change anybody's safety precautions and just in my neighborhood I was going around and checking people's tie downs and such things. No matter what, be prepared.

BUT it seems that JMA has once again moved the track farther east and even farther to the east than before. Not by much, true, but there can be a significant difference in what actually occurs inland, if it is farther to the east. The thing is, the Navy has almost the same western track as they had earlier, so there is a difference of opinion.

So then I checked tenki.jp and they have the track about in the middle between the Navy track and the JMA track.

Anyway, this is just an update. Truth is, you should still have all prepared for safety reasons by midnight, if you live in an area where you see storm warnings being issued. The local governments will do that and please pay attention.

Oh yes, I went out to make some purchases and in my area the shoppers were really grabbing a lot of stuff. By the time I was heading home about 5PM the shelves in the supermarkets were empty of bread products and that 2L PET bottle water. Convenience stores had those items, but it is a lot more expensive in those stores.

Anyway, y'all be careful and keep an ear/eye on the news.

Oh yes, a friend that is involved in management for that rugby tournament told me today there are a few mighty troubled folks on some teams that felt maybe a match or two didn't need to be cancelled. I don't know if it is in the news, but he seemed worried.

Okay, enough of that off-topic yakking. Sorry.
 
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thomas

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We have secured everything around the house that's not bolted down, closed the shutters, stocked up on supplies and now wait for things to happen (or not). Perhaps it may sound unmindful but I'm looking forward to a good bottle of sake and a relaxed day at home tomorrow. ;)
 

TGI-ECT

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I have to be honest, thomas, this is beginning to look very uncomfortable and you may not be wanting to drink too much sake, just in case. Are you up on the local shelters, if the town/city asks you to move to one of them?

I have some disturbing information to post:



This statement jumped right out and told me to post it here:

Kajihara said Hagibis could bring rainfall on the same level as the "Kanogawa Typhoon" of 1958 that left more than 1,200 people dead or missing in Shizuoka and the Kanto region.

And these are not much better, as far as easing the mind:

JREF_022_TY1919Post-ImageC.jpg


JREF_022_TY1919Post-ImageD.jpg


I placed the NHK URL there, so they should not be complaining that we borrowed those to put here. It is to help folks understand that we have a situation that is probably worse than even I thought, and I tend to go too far sometimes with safety notices.

And I have to be honest that I feel like a bad sort for posting what is appearing like some bad news.

By the way, many transportation companies running railroads are stating they are stopping service around noon tomorrow.

I'm going to start poking around to see if bus companies might be doing the same thing. Any help would be appreciated.
 

Lothor

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Thomas - I also have an unopened bottle of Cutty Sark on standby, but as TGI-ECT says, we may need to keep our wits about us with this typhoon.
 

TGI-ECT

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JMA now shows a track back to the west, where they had it at some point in the past. Let's put it like this, the present track has the eye going right over, or very close, to Shinagawa Station, if I remember my geography correctly.

And I remembered a short time ago that my Net connection may depend on a relay building that is right near a river that some years ago during some storm had the fire department posting trucks with crews along certain points of the river, so if that heavy rain happens again in this area that might affect my landline connection. I don't use that through-the-air service.

Anyway, folks, stay safe, if possible. If not, or you have worries, find out what the local government folks are offering for advice.

Oh yes, I also have a bottle of emergency fluid and that one is from an old friend of mine from years ago --- Mr. Walker. I used to know him so well when I was younger. In fact, I had a shot of him a bit back when I was suffering from a horrible cold or flu thing. There is a bottle of some other fluid in that cupboard, but I forget what it is as I type this.

Yep, this sure isn't fun. I wish Hagibis would astound everyone and suddenly make a sharp right turn and go toward Hawaii and then get tired and go down to the south pole and become the Wandering Typhoon and then JREF would be very famous because we predicted it happening. I wonder if Hagibis has an Internet connection through-the-air.

You folks stay safe. Please!

EDIT: Let me provide a link to data provided by a DAVIS VANTAGE PRO weather station the Navy uses. -- NOAC YOKOSUKA
 
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TGI-ECT

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And while those icon thingies are cute and of some value, I feel it is much better to post a proper thank you with words; and this one is to state that the Windy link you posted above, thomas, is a mighty useful link. Thank you for that.
 

thomas

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We are now receiving emergency alerts on our mobiles every 10 minutes or so: local landslide warnings and an alert about Tamagawa (close to where we live) overflowing its banks. I found a live webcam near Futakotamagawa Bridge (you have to click twice to go to Youtube, as the owner has disabled embedding):




tamagawa-flooded-12-10-2019.jpg

Almost the entire riverbed is already underwater. I was planning to ride there to work tomorrow.
 

musicisgood

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well it is 6 :30 now
hope you guys are on high ground
here in yamaguchi , winds and rains are coming in around 9 pm tonight
high tide, highest in the year
winds are strong now ,
keep safe and go to second floor of your house if necessary
 

musicisgood

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hey guys keep us updated on the typhoon
here winds are picking up
but to max about 9 pm tonight
i was out walking , came back, winds too strong now
 

Lothor

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hey guys keep us updated on the typhoon
here winds are picking up
but to max about 9 pm tonight
i was out walking , came back, winds too strong now
So far, so good in Tokyo (Nerima-ku) but I think that cities are relatively well protected - the buildings take the edge off the wind and the rivers are usually better protected. Very wet and windy outside, a bit of damp on our living room roof, but nothing worse. I think the strongest winds are yet to come though. The earthquake was unnerving however (what was I saying?!). Thomas - hope you're not in danger of flooding where you are.
 

bentenmusume

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Stronger typhoons always have a bit of an otherworldly, out-of-the-ordinary, 非日常 sort of feel to them. Of course, sometimes they hit stronger than other times.

I'm sitting here on the second floor of our new (new to us, it's an 20-something-year-old older style reformed/renovated Japanese-style domicile) house near Kichijoji and Mitaka on the western-ish end of Tokyo proper. For now, we're getting a lot of rain, some wind, and ridiculously slow internet speeds, but not a whole lot to fear quite yet. We'll see, though, I suppose!

The minor earthquake earlier and yesterday morning barely registered with me after having sat through 3.11 on a broken leg. I suppose I shouldn't be too overconfident, though.

Anyhow, stay safe and good luck to you all!
 

TGI-ECT

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Even though the earthquake wasn't so strong in my area I had an awful chill go down my spine and I was sort of waiting for it to get stronger, but it didn't. But it certainly gave a reasonably good shake to some folks in Chiba-ken.
 

thomas

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The earthquake was unnerving however (what was I saying?!). Thomas - hope you're not in danger of flooding where you are.
One of the strongest typhoons in decades, floods, and an earthquake, quite a lot in a day.

Thank you, Lothor, we are living on top of a hill, so we should be safe. Lots of municipalities along the Tama have issued evacuation advisories, though. I hope the bridge will be open tomorrow.
 

johnnyG

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A daughter and family are in a small city next to Odawara (towards Daiyuzan). When I totaled the hourly precipitation earlier, they were at about 200mm, but nearby Hakone and Tanzawako were at 900mm! (We'd only had about 60mm then.)

They're not moving/evacuating, as they're towards the hills and not near a river. There's some risk/thought of landslides where they are, but going out to move to a school w/two small kids..., just not enough reason to go.
 

Lothor

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The wind has suddenly got very strong in Tokyo.
 

TGI-ECT

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What a nasty bit of business this Hagibis has been. Age of one of the residences of this family caused some trouble by allowing Hagibis to put some of its water into the kitchen area due to a leak and now the docs will be angry with me because in working that one out I messed up my back again which they were --- well one of them --- was stating how nicely my back/spine was healing. I guess I have messed that one up, thank you Hagibis.

I think in this age of anti-everything I want to now form an Anti-Typhoon Guest League. Typhoons are no longer welcome to enter into Japan's 200-km economic zone, or whatever that distance is from Japan's shoreline. ATGL means Stay Away Hagibis-type guests!

Unfortunately, I believe the news is stating there has been some loss of life due to this storm and it is still causing trouble up north as I type this and I wish there to be no more loss of life or injury.

I hope our own community members are all safe?

A seriously nasty bit of business.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
By the way, jt_, just wondering if I understand something --- you broke a bone because of the shaking we had on 3/11? Actually, we had a couple of hardcore shakes that afternoon. But I guess it would have been the first one, yes? You broke something?
 

thomas

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Thomas are you alright?
Sure Davey, no worries, thank you. :)

A bit of a mud festa along the Tamagawa this morning. The roads along the river were all covered in half a foot of gungy sludge. Tamagawa reminded me of the Mississippi.

tamagawa01_12102019.jpg


tamagawa02_12102019.jpg


tamagawa03_12102019.jpg


tamagawa04_12102019.jpg


The BBQ area next to Futakotamagawa Bridge. "Tamacalypse", as one of our club members called it.
 
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