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Typhoon 15 / Faxai

TGI-ECT

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I suspect this typhoon might deserve its own thread, and I suspect some serious discussion took place at some offices within the JR system and they decided they will lose a fair bit of income and be safe, rather than trust that all will work out okay with this typhoon.

But I do not believe that even the JMA people are sure what to expect from Typhoon 15 and I have some proof of that with a screen grab I did when the JMA people put that not so often seen 'rainstorm' image on their weather page; but then removed it. Clearly an indication of a change in thinking.

Strangely, we don't get too many typhoons slamming into the central Kanto area like this one might, so I sure hope people remember the basics and stay safe.
 

TGI-ECT

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I think you can now see an example of the warning system mapping the U.S. military uses, as compared to what we civilian folks see here in Japan.

And it strikes me as quite amazing that Faxai just barely squeaked past southern Kanagawa without touching land, so the professionals couldn't state it made landfall in Kanagawa Prefecture; and Faxai then scooted along a centerline of Tokyo Bay and had it's morning coffee in Chiba.

Typhoons do drink coffee, don't they?

But I understand there was some damage to some buildings during the night and possibly some injuries are associated with Faxai, so I shouldn't be posting jokes, should I? Sorry.
 

thomas

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Our neighbourhood looks like a bomb had exploded. This was the strongest typhoon I have experienced in Japan.

Unfortunately, one of our trees didn't make it. It blocked the road, so we had to saw it off.

faxai01.jpg

faxai02.jpg
 

Lothor

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I'm surprised by how little damage I've seen in Tokyo considering the strength of the typhoon. I even got to work on time by catching the bus.
 

TGI-ECT

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Well, reports coming in are indicating a fair bit of damage in various places around Kanto, and we are reading of a fatality, and I am not meaning to show disrespect to that human that Mother Nature struck down, so to speak; but I have a question:

Why are the JMA officials stating landfall was in Chiba?

And I thank musicisgood . for that error because it had me take a second look at the Navy's track on their site and then I started checking other sites and then did even more checking and Faxai made landfall in Kanagawa Prefecture near Yokosuka City.

So what's going on?

Is the Koizumi family so powerful that they can change official records related to a typhoon that happens upon them?

Again, I mean no disrespect to the loss of life or those injured.
 

thomas

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I was wondering about that, too, but it appears that Faxai just skirted the Miura Peninsula, crossed Tokyo Bay and made landfall in Chiba. The Koizumi clan can be presumed innocent (this time).

faxai-09092019.jpg


1915-00.png
 

TGI-ECT

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Actually, musicisgood's first post had me giving a second look to what the military folks were logging and that led to this:

JREF_008_190909d_TY15_ImageA.jpg


And I saw that path right over the Miura Hanto and thought that was odd and so I then checked with these folks:

JREF_008_190909d_TY15_ImageB.jpg


Finally I decided to go a bit deeper into JMA's files where I suppose a lot of folks don't normally go --- don't ask why I know about that area --- anyway, this strikes me as mighty weird:

JREF_008_190909d_TY15_ImageC.jpg


Now why would they state near Yokosuka City?
Why not Miura City?
If that typhoon's eye did not cross the Miura Peninsula then there is no reason why they should not have used Miura-shi as a reference.

And I am sorry I didn't put this up in my post above, but I got way off my proper schedule earlier today because I spent too much time digging through various sites trying to ascertain whether somebody at JMA was trying to lead us out into Hibiya Park on this one. So once I realized something wasn't right and did that post above I didn't have enough time then to get my notes properly organized and the images a bit smaller to be able to post them here.

But now you folks can see why I am confused. Or worse.
 

Buntaro

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The US military has a large navy base in Yokosuka. It has a full-service military weather observing and reporting station. There may be Japanese military weather observers who are also stationed at Yokosuka. When a military base (or any weather reporting station) reports weather, they report it in bearing and distance from that weather station.
 

TGI-ECT

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Whether there are active duty Japanese meteorologists stationed on the Yokosuka facility or not seems a tad outside the boundary of this discussion, because of two points:

<> <> <> <> <> <> <>

Number One, the following indicates the international scope of the Japanese commitment to accurate monitoring of the tropical storms:

(And I am sort of working backwards with the two links below.)
WIS Portal - GISC Tokyo
RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center

Page 7 of their 2017 report includes this:
1.1 Analysis
TC analysis is performed eight times a day at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC, and begins with
determination of the TC’s center position. Cloud images from the Himawari-8 are the principal source for this determination, especially for TCs migrating over data-sparse ocean areas. Information on the TC’s direction and speed of movement is extracted primarily from six-hourly displacement vectors of the center position.

(My comment) I would suspect the international scope of cooperation required of the Japanese commitment to this responsibility they have signed on for would not allow them to include any sort military meteorological units, unless there might be some special clause in the agreements signed that relate to disasters.

But because I am using the vocabulary "suspect" I have not yet confirmed that thought.

<> <> <> <> <> <> <>

Number Two:

The image I copied in a post above from the U.S. Navy would not have been influenced by any active duty Japanese military personnel.
 

TGI-ECT

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Okay, let me correct something in this manner.

Whether there was an "influence" like input from any particular active duty Japanese military official I obviously would not know, but it could be -- very maybe, so to speak. I probably should not have been so blunt above and should not have written "would not have been influenced" and I may call down to Yokosuka tomorrow and ask them.

But a more important point is that this whole business of reporting on locations of tropical depressions/storms/typhoons, etc. is not going to be some wishy-washy type of business. This has got to be done following very strict guidelines, no matter who is doing it.

And two images I have posted above on two websites run by professional folks show a different path than the JMA professionals are showing and 'yes' somebody asking why should be viewed as that somebody having too much time on his hands and all that, but also should be viewed as a viable question of "What the heck is going on?"

Now I have some actual coordinates somebody has sent me and when time permits I will check those, but time is the problem, I don't have enough of it, of course.

But when I took a closer look at all the information thus far I have this very strong suspicion that typhoon's eye did not do that fancy dance required to miss the Miura Peninsula. I mean, if it did, fine. Fancy dancing, if you look closely at the map. That alone would be an interesting discussion. I have records of typhoons doing loops, so it isn't so wild to imagine.

But then we have two charts that clearly show TY1915 crossed that peninsula, but JMA is stating landfall was in Chiba. I'm just a dumb human asking why.
 

thomas

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I‘m not trying to be smart here but perhaps we should look at what „landfall“ actually means.

Here‘s an interesting article:


Sorry, I wanted to quote more but I‘m on my iPhone and the ads on that page make posting too finicky.
 

TGI-ECT

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Actually, that thought had crossed my mind. Because I suspect hitting a "small" island does not seem to be acceptable as a designation for "landfall" and I was thinking maybe they also have a peninsula as not qualifying, but that would be very interesting from a few angles and I hadn't gotten to that point in this exploration of TY15. First I wanted to be sure it actually passed over the peninsula.

Frankly, if that typhoon crossing over the Miura Hanto does not constitute a proper landfall, I think I could get some folks to get on a "We Are Landfall" bus and we could have some fun.

But that thought had crossed my mind, thomas.
 

johnnyG

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The real question--about all those maps all of you have posted--is which ones have been doctored with a sharpie.
 

TGI-ECT

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It does surprise me, johnnyG, that you display such disrespect to the owners of this website.

You would have obviously checked the two government websites from which those images were taken and the one company website that has an image copied to this thread, and you would have ascertained that none of the members posting here doctored any of those images, so the only entities you might be accused of focusing your accusations upon are two governments and one not so small company.

If officials from any of those three entities were to take offense at a member of this community making such an accusation there could be legal troubles for the owners of this website.

There are legal limitations to freedom of expression in this country.
 

thomas

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Ah, johnnyG just forgot the tongue-in-cheek smilie. 😋😛😝😜 (Now which one was it?)
 

bentenmusume

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I have it on good word from an authority no less reliable than the President of the United States of America that Typhoon #15 actually made landfall in Alabama.

;) (<- Did I do this right?)
 

TGI-ECT

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johnnyG, I owe you an apology for being very harsh in that post in response to yours.

Please accept my apology.
 

TGI-ECT

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And, thomas, your link seems to indicate that if that eye had passed over the Miura Hanto it would have been classified as having made landfall, but I got to thinking that possibly it is a relative choice, in a manner of speaking, because even going over a small island would constitute a sort of landfall; but maybe it would be a sort of joke if they were to make a habit of citing every piece of land a particular storm passed over (so my use of the term "relative") and some hotshot boss in a fancy glass office that gets neat money to make decisions decides that it was only over the Miura Hanto for a short time, and so it really was best to identify Chiba-ken as the piece of land that was most important.

I've had to go into that JMA headquarters complex a few times in the past and so I suspect it could happen again and when it does I will ask someone about this thread.

Well, that is if that "hotshot boss" isn't a member of our community and doesn't get in here and chew me out for being so stubborn and then clarifies the situation for us and tells me to stay the heck away from his headquarters complex.

You see, thomas, I'm still wondering the why of that equipment move they made out into Hibiya Park. I mean, the real 'why' and not that nonsense they fed to the media.
 

thomas

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I've had to go into that JMA headquarters complex a few times in the past and so I suspect it could happen again and when it does I will ask someone about this thread. Well, that is if that "hotshot boss" isn't a member of our community and doesn't get in here and chew me out for being so stubborn and then clarifies the situation for us and tells me to stay the heck away from his headquarters complex.

Thank you, @TGI-ECT, there must be some clear meteorological definition of what exactly constitutes a landfall. It shouldn't be up to some hotshot of a national agency to decide. Please do share whatever you can find out.

Wow! You didn't lose any of your bikes , did you.

No, they are all stored indoors in what my wife scornfully calls the 'bicycle room".
 

TGI-ECT

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I will be sure to update the thread, when I have any further information about that question, thomas..

But this post is asking if anyone knows whether other areas, like in the Kyushu areas, has had such trouble with an area's electrical grid such like we are seeing is happening in Chiba Prefecture?

For some reason I thought that these electric companies were much better at handling matters after a storm has hit an area. Yes, the Kanto areas don't get hit as often as like down in the Kyushu areas, but that shouldn't make any difference when a company learns from the experience of another company. Or so it would seem, no?

There is just something about this business in Chiba Prefecture that I just didn't expect to see.

And I have to confess that medical matters as of late have me not having the time to do the proper research before this post questioning what the heck is wrong in Chiba Prefecture. For example, is that also TEPCO? I hope it isn't because I am starting to get mighty fed up with TEPCO this and TEPCO that and all that seems to be going on since you folks know what. And they have us over a barrel, don't they? If we want electrical power we have to use their services.

Okay, I'm sorry. I shouldn't let my personal feelings into this, right? Just that I have been slowly getting more and more pissed off about that company and the government that seems so bent on protecting them. The consumer is frequently treated like dirt. Radioactive dirt, at that.
 
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Lothor

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And I have to confess that medical matters as of late have me not having the time to do the proper research before this post questioning what the heck is wrong in Chiba Prefecture. For example, is that also TEPCO? I hope it isn't because I am starting to get mighty fed up with TEPCO this and TEPCO that and all that seems to be going on since you folks know what. And they have us over a barrel, don't they? If we want electrical power we have to use their services.

Okay, I'm sorry. I shouldn't let my personal feelings into this, right? Just that I have been slowly getting more and more pissed off about that company and the government that seems so bent on protecting them. The consumer is frequently treated like dirt. Radioactive dirt, at that.

I can't stand the company either. We've changed our supplier to Tokyo Gas but I think it doesn't make any difference as to where the electricity is generated.
TEPCO are currently on a massive charm offensive in Kanto with their adverts on the trains. I find it insulting that they think a few adverts of an animated rabbit dancing in sync with a couple of tarento will make everything all right after the shitstorm they let loose on Japan in 2011.
 

TGI-ECT

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Firstly, I suspect I could have been a little less so hardcore with my criticism of TEPCO in that post above, but I still have serious ill feelings toward the company. BUT I do appreciate that they provide a necessary service in this modern age. It's just that the executives seem so seriously big-headed, or something. The "something" could be better defined, but that is enough, for now.

The reason I am posting is that I finally had some time to do some research and I still feel that something isn't quite right. (There's that 'something' again. eh?)

So I'll start with a Japan Times article from Friday and I want to quote a professor's thoughts included toward the end of the article.


......................................................................---Quoting Starts---
Masakazu Kato, a professor at Tokyo Denki University who specializes in electrical systems engineering, said it will be impossible for Tepco to restore power in just a few days, given how long it took to recover from Typhoon Jebi last year in western Japan.

“As the (Tokyo) metropolitan area rarely experiences damage from typhoons, the lack of experience likely made the company take an approach that was too optimistic,” he said.

In the wake of the March 2011 triple core meltdown at its Fukushima No. 1 plant, Tepco’s investments in power lines and other facilities fell to ¥209.7 billion in fiscal 2015, down from ¥298.4 billion in fiscal 2009.
......................................................................
---Quoting Ends---
<> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <>
That Professor Kato seems to have better access to information than we and he seems to be of the mind that something isn't quite right.

I mean, I have been studying some edu tagged material and one example I'll place below, BUT the key thing I keep seeing some professionals are writing about is seeing the danger coming and getting ready for it.

I really hope that we can get beyond the usual bovine excrement we consumers frequently are fed and find out why the heck them TEPCO folks weren't better prepared.

And I will be placing a fair bit of text below from that book you will see the link for and which I have properly identified. I believe the pdf format is available without charge for what I have copied here.

<> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <>

The National Academies Press of The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine
"Enhancing the Resilience of the Nation's Electricity System"
(2017)
[https://]www.nap.edu/read/24836/chapter/5#67 (I disabled the hotlink.)

......................................................................---Quoting Starts---

Prepare
The preparation phase begins when a specific threat is identified—for example, when a hurricane forms with a projected track that will impact a specific utility. Some hazards have no advance warning, while others can be identified and monitored with sufficient time for utilities and other responders to move beyond general planning and develop specific actions. For example, utilities preparing for impeding hazard may check the health of critical components (including the health of cyber systems), check stocks of spare equipment, activate mutual assistance agreements, and bring local crews to a state of readiness, potentially pre-staging supplies and repair crews at specific locations. Operators assess the level of generation available, likely bringing additional reserve generation online, evaluate the adequacy and vulnerability of different fuel stocks and supply chains, and verify the state of charge of utility-scale storage assets if available. During preparation, utilities can begin coordinating with relevant disaster response organizations and encourage the public to purchase fuel and test backup generators. Utilities that have built and maintained strong relationships with local emergency management organizations know whom to engage, whereas organizations that have not built these relationships may waste valuable time and resources trying to connect with local efforts. There are growing opportunities to engage distributed energy resource (DER) owners so that system operators know the state of these resources, although current interconnection standards and contractual arrangements need to be revised to promote utility visibility and controllability of DERs.


......................................................................---Quoting Ends---

<> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <>

So we now get back to whether those TEPCO folks did enough to prepare for a typhoon they had what might seem to some folks enough warning was heading toward that area that is now in so much turmoil?

Do you think they had enough warning before that typhoon struck?

I mean, we have ourselves here an area of the planet that shakes a lot and sometimes shakes really hard and so if these individuals that are responsible for maintaining an electric grid can't be better prepared for some disaster they can see is coming, how much can we trust they can handle a bad shake they might only give them seconds of warning before it happens?

And do we consumers have a right to ask that sort of question?
 
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