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Tropical Cyclone 1928 / Kammuri

TGI-ECT

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I think a great, almost fantastic, aspect of this new style we can use for communications is that we can sometimes save lives. And this may appear too melodramatic, and I hope you are right, but as of about three hours ago a sense of uncomfortableness entered into my brain as I was going through my usual morning routine and saw that tropical depression had turned into a fully designated tropical cyclone and then I saw this from JMA:

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<Forecast for 18 UTC, 1 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N16°05' (16.1°)
E132°50' (132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 750 km (400 NM)
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What I fear is that some of our members that live in areas like the Cagayan Valley and beyond might be in danger if they might not be paying close attention to something like this. Especially as many feel that when it gets cold (cooler) like it is getting these tropical cyclones are not so much of a problem.

So if only one member sees this and it helps that member, this has put this community platform to good use.

*** And I will apologize for letting my old habit kick in of leaving out some information so you will go look for yourself and then learn a tad bit more about areas of this planet beyond where you'd normally be concerning yourself. Sorry about that. *** (You should have taken some flight lessons with me way back and that style I am apologizing for here would have driven you absolutely mad. But in that venue there were no apologies handed out, as that style also could save lives.)
 

Lothor

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Thanks for pointing that out and I'll notify a friend in Luzon. The circles of probability are so large at the moment that the typhoon could go anywhere even if it forecast to go in that direction at the moment. Hopefully it'll veer north and hit cooler water.
 

TGI-ECT

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I am suspecting the wish for the turn to the north isn't a ... well, I am worried. In fact, my worry doubled just moments ago as I had time to do a little checking.

Okay, first is this:

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<Forecast for 06 UTC, 2 December>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E130°05' (130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 650 km (350 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 850 km (450 NM)
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The worry there is because it indicates direction -- still heading west on that date -- and strength remains.

And I did adjust this image a bit and I hope the officials aren't going to get mad at me, or worse; but this is to assist with a public safety campaign (of sorts) so I hope they cut me some slack and what I have changed is the size so this image isn't quite so big here in this post:

JREF_048_STS1928ImageA.jpg


You can view the source for a bit at this location:

(Anyway, if them Navy folks go after me I will enlist Uncle Frank to represent me.)

And that image is very clear as to size and that size means a whole mess of rainfall and it is the rainfall that is very often a big problem.

Okay, this is where I suddenly had a surprise and a not very good one. In fact, a very bad one.

Any safety officer worth his/her weight will immediately understand my consternation at this information:

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Philippines
As Tropical Depression Julian formed to the north of the Philippines On August 3, PAGASA issued Storm Signal #1, a warning for winds of 30–60 km/h (19–37 mph), for parts of Luzon. The parts of Luzon that were under Public Storm Signal #1 included the Batanes Group of Islands, Babuyan Group of Islands, Calayan Group of Islands, northern Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra and La Union. Early on the afternoon of August 4 PAGASA lowered Storm Signal #1 for all regions of Luzon except for Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union. Early the next morning they lowered the rest of the Public Warning Signals as they released their final advisory on Julian.

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Source for that is:

As that storm wasn't such a big problem for the folks in the Philippines there is that odd trouble of association with the name and that it wasn't so bad and then the older folks then tell others that; "Heh, it wasn't a problem about 10 years ago, so no sweat this time, too."

I know that some of you won't believe that happens, but it does. And it is a safety officer's nightmare. And that this is coming up on December doesn't help one little bit. The possible way out of that worry is the probability the name given to the storm this time will be a different one for those that live in the path. I mean, they won't name it Julian, right? Do they still use a different name these days in those parts?

Anyway, I'm doing my little bit of a part to maybe help snap somebody to attention to check around and make sure folks take this seriously down there and check to see things are as okay as they can get them.

That means JREF is also doing its part.

By the way, you folks know what Kammuri means, yes?
 

Lothor

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Anyway, I'm doing my little bit of a part to maybe help snap somebody to attention to check around and make sure folks take this seriously down there and check to see things are as okay as they can get them.
My Facebook friend in Manila immediately notified everyone she knew when I told her, so you are doing your bit.
 

TGI-ECT

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I had to try many times over many hours to finally acquire the 2PM bulletin from here:

http[:]//www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/ . . . I'm not allowing a hotlink as you might want to place the address into another portal if you are wanting to try and access their site, which is not easy. Thus I placed the brackets inside the address.

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Issued at 02:00 pm, 02 December 2019
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5:00 pm today.)
TYPHOON "TISOY" INCREASES ITS THREAT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TOWARDS NORTHERN SAMAR, ALBAY, SORSOGON AREA.

•Heavy Rainfall Outlook

•Until this afternoon: Occasional heavy rains over Bicol Region, Samar Provinces and Biliran. Intermittent heavy rains over Northern Cebu, Northern Negros Island, Dinagat Islands, Siargao Island, and the rest of Eastern Visayas.

•Between this afternoon and tomorrow noon: Frequent to continuous heavy to intense rains over Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Southern Quezon, and Marinduque. Occasional heavy rains over Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Samar, Eastern Samar and the rest of CALABARZON. Intermittent heavy rains over Metro Manila, Central Luzon, eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela, and the rest of Eastern Visayas.

•Between tomorrow noon and Wednesday noon: Frequent to continuous heavy to intense rains over Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, and Romblon. Intermittent to occasional heavy rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Pangasinan, Aklan, Capiz, and northern Antique.

•Residents in the aforementioned areas, especially those living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to flooding and rain-induced landslides, are advised to take appropriate actions, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the Thunderstorm or Rainfall Advisories and Heavy Rainfall Warnings to be issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.

•Other Hazards and Information

•Possible Storm Surge height in surge prone areas: more than 3.0 meters over several coastal areas in Camarines Norte ( Mercedes and Mandao), Camarines Sur (Cabusao, Bombon, Calabanga, Tinambac, and Sipocot), and Catanduanes (Bagamanoc, Baras, Bato, Viga, Panganiban and Gigmoto); 1 to 3 meters over several coastal areas in Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and Samar. For more information, refer to "Storm Surge Warning #3" issued at 11:00 AM today.

•Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of areas under TCWS, the seaboards of Northern Luzon, the western seaboard of Palawan, central seaboards of Visayas, and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao due to prevailing or forecast rough sea conditions which may be perilous for maritime activities, especially for those using small seacrafts.

•Gusty conditions may also be experienced in areas in Northern Luzon that are not under any TCWS (especially in the coastal and mountainous zones) due to the Northeast Monsoon.

•"TISOY" is forecast to make landfall over Catanduanes, Albay or Sorsogon between tonight and tomorrow early morning.

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I have not been able to access the site again for the 5PM bulletin, but one thing I do have is a very good description on their page about the possible situations that can develop due to wind conditions:

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Impact of the Wind

•Many coconut trees may be broken or destroyed.

•Almost all banana plants may be downed and a large number of trees may be uprooted.

•Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.

•Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed and there may be considerable damage to structures of light to medium construction.

•There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.

•In general, moderate to heavy damage may be experienced, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors.

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This one, folks, isn't going to be good, no matter how one looks at it right now. The storm is not going to stop dead in its tracks, nor turn abruptly north or south and miss the islands.

I talked to a colleague from Yokosuka on the phone and he said they are preparing for certain eventualities if called upon to offer assistance and studying a storm that hit that area in 2014, but I failed to write down the name he mentioned, and I can't remember what that name was as I type this.

Just not good is all that comes to mind. I feel a fair bit of sadness that we will likely be reading some horrible stories in the news in about 24 to 36 hours.

I suppose I should apologize for this thread, as it doesn't really relate to Japan and I see it was moved to here very likely for that reason.

I don't seem to be getting too much right around here these days, do I?
 
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