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News The next big one: Nankai quake study


Unswerving cyclist
14 Mar 2002
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While Japan is still struggling with the aftermath of the 2011 tsunami and the Fukushima clean-up engineers and scientists prepare for the next Big One, a massive earthquake striking the Nankai Trough off the southeastern coast of Japan that could cause 1,240 trillion yen in economic damage. The probability of such a quake happening within the next 30 years is 70-80%.

The Nankai Trough (in yellow):

Study: Damage from Nankai quake could hit 1,240 trillion yen:The Asahi Shimbun

Nankai Trough quake, tsunami could cost Japan ¥1.4 quadrillion over 20 years, engineers say | The Japan Times

According to a report from 2016 the expected number of casualties (323,000 in the worst case) could be reduced to 61,000 "through a combination of swift evacuation and ensuring that all buildings are earthquake resistant, compared with 79 per cent of them now. It would not only save more lives but could halve the economic damage" (FT):

Japan: the next big quake
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