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Senate panel eyes Japan nuke option to press China on N. Korea test

Wang

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Senate panel eyes Japan nuke option to press China on N. Korea test

Saturday May 21, 7:05 AM

(Kyodo) _ U.S. policymakers should highlight Japan's possible nuclear pursuit and other security repercussions for China in pressing Beijing to stop North Korea from testing its nuclear weapons, a Senate Republican policy panel said in a recent report.
"A test in North Korea would certainly raise the prospect of a major public debate in Japan over whether to turn its latent nuclear capabilities in its civilian and space sectors into an overt nuclear weapons program," the U.S. Senate Republican Policy Committee said in the report distributed to senators this week.

While also pointing out various other "far-reaching" effects on the security and political dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, the panel said, "It's not too late to avert a North Korean nuclear test. However, the key to preventing a nuclear test lies primarily on China."

As a paramount policy option, the United States must "essentially" demand that China "make a choice: either help out or face the possibility of other nuclear neighbors," according to the report, a copy of which was obtained by Kyodo News.

"Helping the United States would include participating fully in the quarantine of North Korea, tolerating Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese missile defense programs, and doing nothing to pressure the South Koreans to agree to a confederation with North Korea," the panel said.

The six-page report emphasizes China's role in hammering out policy options for the United States after assessing possible national reactions in the Asia-Pacific region and various scenarios if North Korea goes ahead with its recently reported plan to carry out a nuclear test.

President George W. Bush's Republican allies in the Senate compiled the report at a time when the Bush administration has also repeatedly urged China to step up its influence on North Korea to return to the stalled six-party talks on its nuclear ambitions. The talks also involve Japan, South Korea and Russia.

"Resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis immediately and peacefully is a clear test for China," the panel said.

As one of the three scenarios, the panel said the U.S. officials will explain a "mutually beneficial outcome" to China.

"For China, such an outcome might include U.S. restraint on Japan's and Taiwan's nuclear ambitions," the panel said. But U.S. policymakers "would then note that, should China not agree to help resolve the nuclear crisis in this manner, the United States may not be able to restrain nuclear proliferation efforts within the region as much as it may like to."

"Clearly for the United States, the positive outcome would be the dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear program and, ideally, the end of the Kim Jong Il regime," the panel said.

The second scenario envisions the development of an "alliance system" of Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, Japan and other democracies in East Asia to counter North Korea.

While China will likely not welcome such an alliance, its development or even discussions would force Beijing to "decide if it wanted to be helpful in resolving the North Korean crisis," the panel said.

In the other scenario on global acceptance of North Korea as a new nuclear power, the panel warned that it would be interpreted by Iran, Syria and other "rogue" states, as well as countries such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Brazil that the pursuit of a nuclear weapons program would not be opposed, leading to "dramatic consequences" for U.S. national security.

As for national reactions in the United States, U.S. policymakers have initial options of enhancing diplomatic discussions through the six-party talks, introducing a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Pyongyang, and applying economic sanctions and possibly a naval blockade against North Korea, the panel said.

While accelerating missile defense cooperation with its allies, the United States is expected to expand its permanently stationed forces at sea and land, including possible nuclear deployments, the panel said.

"U.S. forces likely would be put on a higher alert, prepared to respond to any sign of North Korean aggression, perhaps even preemptively," it said.

South Korea may build up its military by buying more weapons from the United States, but could also move toward arranging a "confederation" with North Korea in leading Seoul to ask U.S. forces to leave, the panel said.

Against this backdrop, the United States should encourage Japan and South Korea to mend their recently soured ties and make a joint announcement stating their desire to find a "mutually acceptable solution to the nuclear crisis" and their assurance of not seeking nuclear weapons.

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/050520/kyodo/d8a76qco0.html
 

bossel

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Nuclear blackmail?

Wang said:
"For China, such an outcome might include U.S. restraint on Japan's and Taiwan's nuclear ambitions," the panel said. But U.S. policymakers "would then note that, should China not agree to help resolve the nuclear crisis in this manner, the United States may not be able to restrain nuclear proliferation efforts within the region as much as it may like to."

What has become of the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons? The Republican party should realise that if the US doesn't do anything in case of Japan or SK starting their own nuclear weapons programmes, they are just on the same level as NK. Not to forget that this might start another Cold War. (Or maybe that's what some Republicans want?)
 

TuskCracker

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.
Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
-> China does n-o-t stop North-Korea, what options do you have. This is one of the better options. China could solve this in 3 days. Threaten to cutoff all supplies to North-Korea if they don't come to an agreement to disarm their nuclear program.

-> But China doesn't, and like this issue, because it ties up Japan and America. Thats what they want, and they must pay a price for their bad behavior.

-> China is a reckless entity. Propping up North-Korea, shipping dangerous weapons to unstable parts of the world (SYRIA, LIBYA, PAKISTAN, etc. etc. etc.)

-> Making a law to invade TAIWAN, if they declare independence.

.
 

adam.won

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I don't think u r right

JackInBox said:
.
Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
-> China does n-o-t stop North-Korea, what options do you have. This is one of the better options. China could solve this in 3 days. Threaten to cutoff all supplies to North-Korea if they don't come to an agreement to disarm their nuclear program.

-> But China doesn't, and like this issue, because it ties up Japan and America. Thats what they want, and they must pay a price for their bad behavior.

-> China is a reckless entity. Propping up North-Korea, shipping dangerous weapons to unstable parts of the world (SYRIA, LIBYA, PAKISTAN, etc. etc. etc.)

-> Making a law to invade TAIWAN, if they declare independence.

.


,China has done a lot to prevent the N.K. non-proliferation,but it's 6-party talk ,not 1 party by itself.As is known , every nation is to restrict others by some direct or indirect means, such as America is to restrict China with the weapon delivery to Japan and Taiwan , also , as India has become a big nation to supply the software , it is another big option for U.S. ,China is of course not safe.

So , I think it's reasonable to restrict others with these means,do you think so?

Remember , no conflict ,no progress.

Also , welcome to invade China , but of course ,not their people ,but their weapons.
 

bossel

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JackInBox said:
-> China does n-o-t stop North-Korea, what options do you have. This is one of the better options.
Nope. Japan as a nuclear power would only increase tensions.

China could solve this in 3 days. Threaten to cutoff all supplies to North-Korea if they don't come to an agreement to disarm their nuclear program.
Not that easy.
1) You over-estimate Chinese influence.
2) Who would suffer the most if even Chinese supplies were stopped? The people.

shipping dangerous weapons to unstable parts of the world (SYRIA, LIBYA, PAKISTAN, etc. etc. etc.)
As reckless as the US, I suppose. The biggest importer of US weapons is Saudi Arabia, a real shelter for freedom & human rights. Others in the Top10 of US weapons importers include Colombia, Israel & Egypt.
 

Void

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good point, Bossel

well, there are various means to keep "underdeveloped" countries on a short leash...
but then, who are to stop "progressive", very democratic and overreached countries?

looks like the Charter of UN is only good for use as a toilet paper (with all its glorious plans for the perfect future flushed away long time ago)
 

lexico

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bossel said:
What has become of the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons? The Republican party should realise that if the US doesn't do anything in case of Japan or SK starting their own nuclear weapons programmes, they are just on the same level as NK. Not to forget that this might start another Cold War. (Or maybe that's what some Republicans want?)
You raise some interesting points, to which I'd like to respond with some questions (not specifically at you);

1. Non-proliferation, techincally, could be maintained by keeping the same number of nuclear warheads, but redistributing some on or near Japan/Korea/Taiwan/Philippines/West-South Pacific Waters ?

2. A Neo-Cold War can increase US influence as a peace keeping power in East Asia ? Thereby increase US security and business in the region ? Can these be some of the sentiments that Republicans stand for ? Would it be ludicrous or preposterous to assume that US voters would not object to these goals in the current atmosphere ?
Kyodo said:
U.S. policymakers should highlight Japan's possible nuclear pursuit.
...
A test in North Korea would certainly raise the prospect of a major public debate in Japan over whether to turn its latent nuclear capabilities in its civilian and space sectors into an overt nuclear weapons program," the U.S. Senate Republican Policy Committee said.
...
U.S. policymakers "would then note that, should China not agree to help resolve the nuclear crisis in this manner, the United States may not be able to restrain nuclear proliferation efforts within the region as much as it may like to."
3. Bypassing the non-proliferation ideals (which seems to be the atmosphere of the Republican report), Japan has the technology and material to fully assemble a nuclear warhead and missile to deliver it in a span of anything between 2 wks to 90 days according to various observations. Are these far-fetched and simply alarmist ideas ? Or is the US sending a hidden go-ahead to Japan iff NK doesn't comply ?
Kyodo said:
the panel said, "It's not too late to avert a North Korean nuclear test. However, the key to preventing a nuclear test lies primarily on China."
...
As a paramount policy option, the United States must "essentially" demand that China "make a choice: either help out or face the possibility of other nuclear neighbors," according to the report.
...
"Helping the United States would include participating fully in the quarantine of North Korea, tolerating Japanese, South Korean and Taiwanese missile defense programs, and doing nothing to pressure the South Koreans to agree to a confederation with North Korea," the panel said.
...
"Resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis immediately and peacefully is a clear test for China," the panel said.
...
"Clearly for the United States, the positive outcome would be the dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear program and, ideally, the end of the Kim Jong Il regime," the panel said.
4. Why is the US panel putting so much pressure on China ? I may be underinformed, but China's influence is not that big. Big in comparison, but not that big. I've heard many Chinese complain that N.Korea had become not what it used to be. The strong statements from Chinese citizens cannot be explained by gov'tal propaganda. Opening up a free market system in China did not require N.Korea bashing, so I believe those statements as genuinely reflecting Sino-N.Korean relations.
Kyodo said:
While accelerating missile defense cooperation with its allies, the United States is expected to expand its permanently stationed forces at sea and land, including possible nuclear deployments, the panel said.
5. I seriously doubt the general sanity of the panel for this statement which can be perceived as carrying a tone of threat and symboolic provocation. I'm sure China will try to absorb this as graciously as possible--because this came from 'just' a panel, and not from the gov't, but how will the common citizenry take it ? In fact I wonder what efforts the US and China are making to lower military tension in the West Pacific region ?
Kyodo said:
South Korea may build up its military by buying more weapons from the United States, but could also move toward arranging a "confederation" with North Korea in leading Seoul to ask U.S. forces to leave, the panel said.
6. Is that how the current Republican party perceives S.Korea's stand ? How shallow and quick to jump to the conclusion ? How well does the Republican party know any of US' allies ? Or is Washington being fed disinformation by certain shady allies working for more influence by manipulation ?
Kyodo said:
Against this backdrop, the United States should encourage Japan and South Korea to mend their recently soured ties and make a joint announcement stating their desire to find a "mutually acceptable solution to the nuclear crisis" and their assurance of not seeking nuclear weapons.
7. It appears that a refreshed view of history is in line for all countries involved, and since biological-chemico-nuclear warfare is outmoded as a principle, why not declassify Unit 731 docs for a starter ? Or do we need to wait for the next election for any posssibility of that happening ? Why is the US excercising non-interference in regards to WWII history which is souring almost all of east Asia ?
Nevertheless, no soured relations should stop the two countries from agreeing on a common nuclear policy regarding N.Korea.
 
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