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If Japan exploded an atomic bomb during WWII...

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I read an issue of the manga 'Zipang' by Kawaguchi Kaiji recently, and it shows Japan carrying out a battle plan to use an atomic bomb against the United States in 1943.

If Japan managed to explode an atomic bomb on a huge fleet of troop transports in 1943, would the Pacific War have ended in a negotiated peace? Or would it just have left the US population baying for Japanese blood?
 

Tokis-Phoenix

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At the end of the day, unlike the US, Japan was seriously running out of raw materials to build things like warships- so while an atomic bomb hit on a US transport ship fleet would inflict terrible losses, the US would still be capable of recovering from such a thing, while Japan wouldn't. If Japan used nukes on the US, chances are there would be a massive nuclear retaliation from the US, and one which would take a massive toll on Japans crowded cities.
At the end of the day, IMHO, Japan was going to loose the war whether it used a nuke/s or not- it just didn't have the raw materials to create a strong enough army to defeat the Americans.
 

photografr7

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potential Japane targets

I am writing a book on a related subject...
The two targets that I have read about (quoting the Japanese military) include an attack on China (to break the "stalemate" between Japan and China) and an attack on U.S. troops.
An amphibious attack on the Japanese mainland was planned by the U.S. for Nov. 1945, and it might have been carried out if the nuclear attacks had failed.
The U.S. military estimated 500,000 or more dead (American troops) from such an invasion (which would have included hand-to-hand combat). But I don't think the "calculus" included the use of Japanese nuclear weapons which was a well-guarded secret until after the war.

Contact me if you'd like to offer additional information... or documents... in English or Japanese ... my e-mail is photografr7 (at) yahoo (dot) com
 
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